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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)

 ECM furthest WEST now.

image.thumb.png.faae5535629a59e01503e6b58afddd92.png

Need some major corrections east or we'll end up in a southerly soon..

 

Edited by Snowman.
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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

GFS doubters are looking very silly now   this could be a massive triumph for this model maybe its finest hour....

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Even the boy who cries wolf should be believed sometimes!

You can’t blame folks for being sceptical!

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

Stonking differences at just 8 days. 

image.thumb.png.9e1e64f444f9338bb50338a2420dd455.pngimage.thumb.png.3eb0d2e29253052dacf084c99eff021c.png

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KTtom Experienced

KTtom

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

I must be losing the plot here, how on earth is ecm a great run unless you live somewhere else from the UK, the vortex dropping south is no 2010! If it doesnt drop east of the uk, you are looking at rain!  Absolutely mindblowing how some see blue and think its freezing!

Edited by KTtom
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)

Still cold but missing out on the real fun, think I prefer the 0z as this looking too west based for me..

image.thumb.png.1bd5432d61efbb88e7edb69a6dddf34b.png

Edited by Snowman.
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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted
Just now, KTtom said:

I must be losing the plot here, how on earth is ecm a great run unless you like somewhere else from the UK, the vortex dropping south is no 2010! If it doesnt drop east of the uk, you are looking at rain!  

yep  taken in isolation  we need a shunt East     loads of time  for that to happen.  But as you say that run  brings avrage temps and rain.

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Valleyboy said:

Lowland rain, hill snow

The uppers were worse in early December and parts of SE England had laying snow... given very low thicknesses you’re taking total nonsense it would only be hills.

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted

ECM synoptically amazing - a 300 mile push further east would be very useful (which is well within the envelope).

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
2 minutes ago, KTtom said:

I must be losing the plot here, how on earth is ecm a great run unless you like somewhere else from the UK, the vortex dropping south is no 2010! If it doesnt drop east of the uk, you are looking at rain!  

Are you not expecting a few corrections east? Happened numerous times. Look at Christmas Day for this year.

930517FD-3C19-44D1-AE5D-DE154A144B9F.png

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

JMA at T192:

4A37CD24-D502-4FC6-AB34-4EE94F467940.thumb.gif.21f6a3b6eef65719e8e16366c7c9d758.gif

Better aligned, but at this range there is going to be an envelope of possibilities about the exact direction of the cold plunge when the northerly hits.  It is as well to be thankful that the synoptic pattern now seems nailed, and we can start to understand the detail of how that might affect the UK, and different regions of the UK over the next few days.  

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)

Both the ECM and GFS are either going to be seen as mutton dressed as lamb or just lamb. Will those synoptics deliver or just look good but don’t deliver on the ground .

Frustrating to see a proper pressure rise to the north and the pattern too far west and just the lack of deeper cold to tap into even with that shift east in the pattern .

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted
4 minutes ago, KTtom said:

I must be losing the plot here, how on earth is ecm a great run unless you like somewhere else from the UK, the vortex dropping south is no 2010! If it doesnt drop east of the uk, you are looking at rain!  

Tell that to my father who saw 3cm near the coast from a similar setup a few weeks ago. The only reason he didn't get more was because the precipitation moved through fairly quickly. 

Low thicknesses on this chart will allow for surprises almost anywhere. 

image.thumb.png.e280a6e3b14080f623a860fd75b279c4.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
9 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

GFS doubters are looking very silly now   this could be a massive triumph for this model maybe its finest hour....

2492953E-CBB0-4556-B341-93071EDC21FE.thumb.png.eba43ddcf4defbfaa7d578805e9edbb4.png

I'll let you know... after it's happened!

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

It’s a stonkingly good elongated trough. Shame about the position though.

image.thumb.png.413fa2d135b922e96398f103dc250abb.png


image.thumb.png.79d97e608a4a943504d5f5c6da2c3890.png    

It only needs to shift east a little to deliver a very long fetch northerly. Alas this run is generally cyclonic and chilly.

JMA is excellent by the way, that cold air will flood southwards after day 8.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted (edited)

New thread? New pages starting to load slowly. 

Edited by danm
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Precious little snow away from elevation on that ECM run. I'd say 150m needed for anything wintry. 

Dire dire uppers considering the time of year and synoptic pattern.

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sebastiaan1973 Experienced

sebastiaan1973

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
Posted
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Both the ECM and GFS are either going to be seen as mutton dressed as lamb or just lamb. Will those synoptics deliver or just look good but don’t deliver on the ground .

Frustrating to see a proper pressure rise to the north and the pattern too far west and just the lack of deeper cold to tap into even with that shift east in the pattern .

 

To make things worse, this is Europe. Yellow to red. No cold in the east.

ECMOPEU12_216_34.png

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Ec at 216 hrs is actually going the gfs route ie moving Heighths north west. Better long term imo. Low Heighths should move sse.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

GFS would just like to say a big Thanks for sticking with it,and a big kiss my ar@e to the Euros who constantly mocked it with its Greenland Heights idea,now it looks like the Euros want to join forces with it...Now all it wants is all of your respects for being a bloody top model,and second to non when it comes to modelling Heights to the NW...We are all invited to the party...it should commence around the 27th..and it promises to be pretty white,and pretty blowy...

Great posts guys...you've made me day,I've already fell about me rocking chair once....love it.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Precious little snow away from elevation on that ECM run. I'd say 150m needed for anything wintry. 

Dire dire uppers considering the time of year and synoptic pattern.

Aye, setup is too far west

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