Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[Scott Ingham]

3 hours ago, kold weather said:

This is going to be a tough call, the set-up IS there for snow but the airmass coming down at the moment doesn't look especially cold.

However you may well have multiple lows/fronts circling round an area of reasonably cold uppers and lower thickness. If we get any situation where we pull the winds in from Europe around any LP circulation we stand a good chance of turning any front to snow, as we saw a few weeks ago. The airmass ias it stands is likely to be colder than it was a few weeks ago as well.

Nothing screams snowfest *yet*, but there is more enough there that a watchful eye is deserved

Catching up on the board and this is the best post so far.

Let us nail the pattern thats looking increadingly likely then worry about snow.

Christmas eve n day were only shown to have -3 and -4 uppers a week ago the models always underestimate them and as Kold says -4 and -5 will probably be enough in slack cold air with low thicknesses and multiple low centres

[Allseasons-Si]

The ICON slightly more amplified...

12z 168 v's 00z 180.

[Griff]

Finally sat down to have a quick catch up. 

ECM and GEM for a week's time looking interesting  

[Scott Ingham]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

I can be even clearer, as I have said before, the word zonality simply doesn’t exist!  Look it up in the dictionary...

Ive had this same argument mate hahaha! Driving me round the bend so i just shut up about it lol 

[Kasim Awan]

Lets see if the UKMO produces better amplification around Newfoundland at 144h. I'm still very much 5050 re the surge in heights through Greenland shown on the gfs...

[Scott Ingham]

1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

Sure.. Again I am using a crude description of eddies using a localized zonal index. People always go against the mainstream with adjectives. It doesn't automatically mean the concept is wrong.

This is about newbies. People on here to learn its not personal but your not helping it can confuse people. The pattern is highly meridional any use of the word zonal in any way shape or form in this pattern is strange!

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

This is about newbies. People on here to learn its not personal but your not helping it can confuse people. The pattern is highly meridional any use of the word zonal in any way shape or form in this pattern is strange!

I don't think you read / understood my earlier post. Anyway, this is getting tiresome.

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

I don't think you read / understood my earlier post. Anyway, this is getting tiresome.

I think going forward you need to choose another word to describe a tiny bit of mobility in a strongly blocked set up mate. I just hope newbies understand what you meant 

[That ECM]

You two married? Argue like you are.

[frosty ground]

snow on the northern flank obviously height will be required 

 

[Azazel]

I’ll be honest I don’t understand what any of you are saying at the best of times. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Hi guys,fairly new here and not much experience in the model watching but I do have some belief in what I say.so awaiting the 12z there are two key elements we need firstly the high needs to settle into or close to greenland,i.e lots of amplification,also the 2nd one being is the low that drops down from the northwest,we need this to move down in a east/southeast direction basically into central Europe so we can drag winds directly down from the North then eventually the northeast.what we don't want to see us the low drop South then move West resulting in West based NAO.all of this is important for the cold.

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

I think going forward you need to choose another word to describe a tiny bit of mobility in a strongly blocked set up mate. I just hope newbies understand what you meant 

It's basically trough disruption tilted on a nw-se axis, helping to feed the cold pool. This likely given a lack of greenland blocking from the model solutions I've seen. From a perspective of surface conditions this isn't bad at all, especially if the amplification is ample to continually immobilize the heights that have shunted south east.

 

P.S., now I know even uttering the word "Z****", regardless of context, is enough to send people on here into a nervous breakdown

[DogToffee]

11 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Ive had this same argument mate hahaha! Driving me round the bend so i just shut up about it lol 

There are lots of specialist words not in the dictionary. If people use it and people understand it, then it's doing exactly what it should.

[Blessed Weather]

Can we stay on topic please as the thread is getting clogged up with discussions best continued by pm. Any more will disappear. Thanks.

[Matt H]

UKMO 12z looks more amplified at t120!

[Kasim Awan]

11 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

2 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

UKMO 12z looks more amplified at t120!

 

Ditto for GFS

[TSNWK]

I think 120 is better upstream compared with this mornings 144.. 12 hour difference, but it does appear  better 

Edited December 20, 2020 by TSNWK

[weirpig]

Better ukmo

[Allseasons-Si]

UKMOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

@144.

 

 

[Matt H]

UKMO 12z at t144 is a huge improvement on the 00z run!

[Mike Poole]

T144 on UKMO is big move to GFS tonight with a more amplified pattern, better run on ICON too:

[TSNWK]

Uk144 is much better upstream than this morning...

 

[Jeremy Shockey]

GFS 12 z precipitation Christmas Eve

GFS 12 z 850 s Christmas Eve

Snow showers down East coasts and for others if precipitation makes it inland ( with the -8 isotherm in place for 24th Dec)

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Gfs more amplified than the 06z W.T.F.

12z 126 v's 06z 132.