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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
10 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Polar zonality on a nw-se with Arctic injections seems most credible then... 

Its a better description yes but i see the polar low dropping south similar to 2010

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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted

The GEFS 00z ensemble mean at t192 is beautiful and the ensembles continue to show an extended period of below average temperatures beyond the Christmas period, albeit nothing crazy in terms of the uppers yet but there’s still time for upgrades. Great start to the day once again.

21DA55E6-CDEB-4C19-BB91-76D179CDB745.png

7319833D-5D1E-45E6-9558-1B55BFD2789D.png

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted (edited)

Morning.. after reading the above exchange I check GFS myself..

my summary is that GFS does appear more progressive with things and the heights into Greenland don’t look so impressive..saying  that the trough does drop through a bit better and it still looks cold out to new year... however I thinks enough of this trend GFS please and if anything can you just correct back a tad.

For completeness I then looked at UKMO at 144 and wished I had not. Looks really flat in comparison to GFS at same time...

ukm below.. I can’t figure out how to post more than one chart at present..

image.thumb.gif.ac29b45fba9bdaf87706923b18236384.gif

Edited by TSNWK
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Morning.. after reading the above exchange I check GFS myself..

my summary is that GFS does appear more progressive with things and the heights into Greenland don’t look so impressive..saying  that the trough does drop through a bit better and it still looks cold out to new year... however I thinks enough of this trend GFS please and if anything can you just correct back a tad.

For completeness I then looked at UKMO at 144 and wished I had not. Looks really flat in comparison to GFS at same time...

ukm below.. I can’t figure out how to post more than one chart at present..

image.thumb.gif.ac29b45fba9bdaf87706923b18236384.gif

There you go. on my iPad I place figure on chart, save photo, then when constructing post add photos. There is ecm at T144 for comparison.

1D1F8867-A688-4664-BF16-EFF0B46F4447.png

8793D64B-7418-4438-AA26-0F4F7EB7DD5A.gif

B2022E66-4EFA-4525-8BBF-AE5AF875923E.png

Edited by That ECM
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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

There you go.

1D1F8867-A688-4664-BF16-EFF0B46F4447.png

8793D64B-7418-4438-AA26-0F4F7EB7DD5A.gif

There is a significant difference around Newfoundland there, this would have huge downstream / onwards implications.  The GFS is the only model to support the stronger ridging here. That's why the gfs solution should not be favoured imo.

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
Just now, Kasim Awan said:

There is a significant difference around Newfoundland there, this would have huge downstream / onwards implications.  The GFS is the only model to support the stronger ridging here. That's why the gfs solution should not be favoured imo.

At T144 and beyond is JFF. However ECM looks ok to me.

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

There is a significant difference around Newfoundland there, this would have huge downstream / onwards implications.  The GFS is the only model to support the stronger ridging here. That's why the gfs solution should not be favoured imo.

Then you wont mind admitting the ECM is now moving towards the GFS in this area as was expected

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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted
3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

There is a significant difference around Newfoundland there, this would have huge downstream / onwards implications.  The GFS is the only model to support the stronger ridging here. That's why the gfs solution should not be favoured imo.

As others have said though the GFS has historically been more successful at modelling heights to our NW so that has to be considered. I still think a middle ground is the more likely outcome which will be a good thing in my opinion. Plus the ECM at t168 still looks great to me!

804DBFDF-19D7-4825-8D20-BCD6270A234D.png

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Lets let the model run first..

Its already moved towards it at 144. It will contunue to do so as it gets closer. This is my last post on this matter anyway hahaha people know ky views

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

As others have said though the GFS has historically been more successful at modelling heights to our NW so that has to be considered. I still think a middle ground is the more likely outcome which will be a good thing in my opinion. Plus the ECM at t168 still looks great to me!

804DBFDF-19D7-4825-8D20-BCD6270A234D.png

Yep. Coldest air is on the western boundary of the low. Some room for low pressure into Greenland would assist additional northerlies too.

A mix of gfs amplification and polar jet signwave would suit me fine.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

The ECM has not moved towards the GFS. It is flatter than its 12z run across the Atlantic at day 6. We'll end up with a halfway solution as always though. There is 0 point arguing about it.

Not sure it will ultimately make too much difference however. When I say ultimately I mean a couple of weeks down the line.

 

Edited by CreweCold
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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted (edited)

Deleted.

 

Edited by Frosty Winter
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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Its already moved towards it at 144. It will contunue to do so as it gets closer. This is my last post on this matter anyway hahaha people know ky views

Yes I think a thread comparing models during winter would be a good ideaanyway things look OK imo and the ec looking fine so far. Going forward a continuation of a sse movement of low pressure threw the UK looks on the cards ie Atlantic ridging. On the ground weather is unrealistic to forecast but seasonal which in its self would be welcome. Great posting BTW without biase which is very refreshinnguto

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
2 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

T192 has basically proven your point, on par with the GFS now.:santa-emoji:

10650B2C-C7A1-4A47-891A-FAA7FAC4BB03.png

Yes mate better amplification than its last two runs. Still could be better but a half way house would still be a great outcome

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The ECM has not moved towards the GFS. It is flatter than its 12z run across the Atlantic at day 6. We'll end up with a halfway solution as always though.

Not sure it will ultimately make too much difference however. When I say ultimately I mean a couple of weeks down the line.

 

Two guys respected posters with a different opinion. Completely fine in a discussion however newbies will be confused. For me they have move closer to each other.

6EC1B3ED-CC7A-4E5C-9492-2F36310B7B7D.png

E40C09A1-AE89-47B5-BE11-8D804610F865.png

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

T192 looks better to me now, more similar to the GFS.

10650B2C-C7A1-4A47-891A-FAA7FAC4BB03.png

Need to see some cold uppers. That's one of the most tepid NW airflows I've seen in December.

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
1 minute ago, swfc said:

Yes I think a thread comparing models during winter would be a good ideaanyway things look OK imo and the ec looking fine so far. Going forward a continuation of a sse movement of low pressure threw the UK looks on the cards ie Atlantic ridging. On the ground weather is unrealistic to forecast but seasonal which in its self would be welcome. Great posting BTW without biase which is very refreshinnguto

Thanks mate i try to stay unbiased im a straight up yorkshireman just like yourself hahaha

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Two guys respected posters with a different opinion. Completely fine in a discussion however newbies will be confused. For me they have move closer to each other.

6EC1B3ED-CC7A-4E5C-9492-2F36310B7B7D.png

E40C09A1-AE89-47B5-BE11-8D804610F865.png

Todays 192 a much better chart than yesterdays 216

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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted
Just now, CreweCold said:

Need to see some cold uppers. That's one of the most tepid NW airflows I've seen in December.

Yes I’ve deleted my post now that I’ve had more time to look at it.

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Need to see some cold uppers. That's one of the most tepid NW airflows I've seen in December.

I agree mate. Wont matter if we get the super low heights over us though at this time of the year with it an organised area of precipitation and not convection

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Ravelin Maestro

Ravelin

Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
Posted
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The ECM has not moved towards the GFS. It is flatter than its 12z run across the Atlantic at day 6.

The problem of course with comparing 0Z and 12Z ECM runs is the 12hr time difference on the charts. Does no one produce an integrated chart from both the ECM runs? 

Anyway, comparing current 0Z to yesterday's for 27th...

ECH1-192.GIF ECH1-168.GIF

Very little difference upstream to my eyes, today's run maybe slightly more amplified? 

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Yes ECM is closer to GFS It’s quite clear...... 

BE880700-B1C4-4374-95D1-35042268F56D.thumb.png.cb912be72cf19b4b25a710519b53e05c.pngC3959261-16F0-4E50-8866-A2C7E1C8D308.thumb.png.6e9508592a4e6f5e2575c5d0c2bb056e.png

Yeah and i think it will continue this way on through the 12z. Im not overly sold quite yet on a blockbuster high though i think todays wont be far off what we end up with 

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