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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The n American trough at day 5 is more positively tilted than any of its last four runs ....not a dramatic difference  but it could have consequences for the retrogression at day 7/8 that the model has been consistent on .....

At 144 a smidge less sharp upstream.. maybe not all bad if we think that 12z it might have actually overplay the amplification hand..?
 

image.thumb.png.56881c1927e705a0e5edd6a9072491be.png

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Mizzle Community Regular

Mizzle

Posted
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Fog, Frost, Storms and Rain if it rains like it means it.
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
Posted
4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

@MATTWOLVES

did you get your finger stuck on the post button^^^

I thought something had gone horribly wrong with my phone's scrolling ability!

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS moving towards Euro ...

Agreed

B9A56D10-A743-422F-8FCC-A36AF2FEE6EC.png

4DC0C64B-DF35-4B65-8228-B00BEC1CA03A.png

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Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS moving towards Euro ...

People forget the ECM is the best model when the GFS is showing what they want. Mid Atlantic high - NW flow - after that ? 

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.4cc4547775880ed50c1ef376ab10be6e.png

144... a pretty chart all the same...

 

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

At 144 a smidge less sharp upstream.. maybe not all bad if we think that 12z it might have actually overplay the amplification hand..?
 

image.thumb.png.56881c1927e705a0e5edd6a9072491be.png

All roads...  

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted

Genuine question / observation as a newcomer, because I'm aware of keeping an eye on the trends, but aren't the differences what you'd expect run on run at this interval? 

18z vs 12z

gfsnh-0-174 (1).png

gfsnh-0-180 (3).png

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

People forget the ECM is the best model when the GFS is showing what they want. Mid Atlantic high - NW flow - after that ? 

Middle ground. But this will be better than the ECM. This will happen from both models until T-96 its not a case of i told you so because none of the models are correct yet

A case of waiting for the run to finish.

The ECM will move to the GFS.

The GFS a little towards ECM tomorrow

Edited by Scott Ingham
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

So is this run the gfs finding a middle ground solution with the retrogression and we will see ecm hone in on this evolution tomorrow or is this the beginning of gfs back tracking to the ecm solution (and gem) 

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Incoming  with the 18z polar profile and that waa back swerve.. we are in for the run ?‍♂️ of this week “so far”

EAFD31EF-D46C-4B88-9458-F8F424A977B2.png

B0D771A5-494D-41F1-9F44-8AFAB7C8EF7D.png

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted (edited)

Rain turning to snow as it pushes south. This will be the signal from the ensembles I was mentioning 

DFDD5BB8-FA6C-4045-912F-002F5920E5B6.png

8CB0A7D0-7390-4EF6-A8F6-0CFF18C9EC01.png

Edited by Tim Bland
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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted

GFS remains resolute. Slightly less sharp upstream compared to the 12z but looks very similar to the 06z at the same time. Variation of the same theme I think.:santa-emoji:

06z:

A689E73B-AD51-4AC3-B9A0-64A5BE6566BD.thumb.png.5c331d983d41357beeedf4e0d9749295.png

18z:

25CFA902-1387-4F82-8A9F-886861BA6174.thumb.png.2c193954adc824e10f7fd0e0b1c99d57.png

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)

Far better heights over Greenland on the GFS compared to the ECM. I wouldn't call it as a move towards the ECM this evening - there are still differences between the two models and much to be resolved. I applaud the GFS's stubbornness in this respect - hopefully it stays with it over the coming days.

image.thumb.png.b3f0fd73180df3d7acfbe10d4b449d19.png

Edited by Steel City Skies
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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Another good run coming up here, GFS 18z is excellent at 180.  

image.thumb.png.91a03c7b1746fd46c75bfc3990fba3f5.png

The PV 'chunk' has shifted a bit further east which is a nice move! 

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
Just now, bluearmy said:

So is this run the gfs finding a middle ground solution with the retrogression and we will see ecm hone in on this evolution tomorrow or is this the beginning of gfs back tracking to the ecm solution (and gem) 

Option 1. The christmas period sharpened within 96 hours when it got drip fed under played AAM from last weeks MT and the christmas week one is bigger so i expect the same again in 2 days

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

It dont matter what these lows are doing across the usa the outcome is the same time and time again from the gfs!!!its unreal!!!!❄

I’m a bit surprised that it managed to amplify as much as it has by day 8. Not much difference from the 06z tbh .... 

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

A smidgen further east at 186...

is it me or does it look like a pram....OK,keep your toys in it gfs

gfsnh-0-186.thumb.png.d8379e57c76480185e1d9d5b9086907f.png

nice chart though.

 

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

Another good run coming up here, GFS 18z is excellent at 180.  

image.thumb.png.91a03c7b1746fd46c75bfc3990fba3f5.png

The PV 'chunk' has shifted a bit further east which is a nice move! 

Yes a better run. Middle ground is actually the best solution we can hope for

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
Just now, Scott Ingham said:

Yes a better run. Middle ground is actually the best solution we can hope for

Spot on.. and let’s hope that on this occasion we do get the middle ground.. usually we are ones for extremes...

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Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted

I can’t remember a single occasion over the last 10 years when the GFS was correct and the ECM moved significantly towards it. 

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted
1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yes a better run. Middle ground is actually the best solution we can hope for

Yes, just hope we can see the low keep moving south rather than hang around over the UK and fill in 

The signs are hopeful at 204 - but whatever, these are still absolutely stunning charts.  Don't take these for granted folks!

image.thumb.png.840b525fb8944157fbd643651646e49d.png

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Vikos Seasoned

Vikos

Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
Posted (edited)

spacer.png

Please, dear snow-god, make it happen, only once, and I won't ask you again (soon)

Edited by Vikos
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