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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted

GFS runs are more reliable than the coronavirus tier systems at the moment, let that sink in... 

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

I can’t remember a single occasion over the last 10 years when the GFS was correct and the ECM moved significantly towards it. 

Did you miss the last ECM run?

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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
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Posted

Just an example from the 4 GFS runs today for Sunday evening next week:

00Z GFS

5DF1B518-0C21-4965-B494-45AC9FE4B13C.thumb.png.ad226032d73b75aa8cd927f4e2991148.png

06Z GFS

1C305700-B05D-4024-95CA-B78EF45116E6.thumb.png.4117084dea685d3a0aabecbbc3f49d26.png

12Z GFS

F9B2F753-4AD4-4DC7-B45F-22B9A3F001A4.thumb.png.b091256d7a1e053b8f7e2c547f7e619a.png

18Z GFS

3D13435A-84F2-4F26-9726-15E448E6FDF2.thumb.png.4397beebc8e061aa5dcd1a637cc10f8e.png

Definitely impressive continuity their. The UK trough and the Atlantic/Greenland High. Feels like a game of spot the difference

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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted
Just now, DiagonalRedLine said:

Just an example from the 4 GFS runs today for Sunday evening next week:

00Z GFS

5DF1B518-0C21-4965-B494-45AC9FE4B13C.thumb.png.ad226032d73b75aa8cd927f4e2991148.png

06Z GFS

1C305700-B05D-4024-95CA-B78EF45116E6.thumb.png.4117084dea685d3a0aabecbbc3f49d26.png

12Z GFS

F9B2F753-4AD4-4DC7-B45F-22B9A3F001A4.thumb.png.b091256d7a1e053b8f7e2c547f7e619a.png

18Z GFS

3D13435A-84F2-4F26-9726-15E448E6FDF2.thumb.png.4397beebc8e061aa5dcd1a637cc10f8e.png

Definitely impressive continuity their. The UK trough and the Atlantic/Greenland High. Feels like a game of spot the difference

Looks like the 12:00 runs are more amplified than the 6:00 runs, strange.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

It's miles further SE,this is what we want,watch out towards the Svalbard region,we could tap into some of that cold air.

gfsnh-0-204.thumb.png.282225214b65eeb856d3e30678199a54.pnggfsnh-0-210.thumb.png.3183fba27a16d0097d4e334ded3985de.png 

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

I can’t remember a single occasion over the last 10 years when the GFS was correct and the ECM moved significantly towards it. 

It happened in 2010 the last time we had a Greenland High. It took ages for the ECM to come on board. The GFS is king with these north atlantic highs. Only this synoptic. All others ECM

Edited by Scott Ingham
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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Slack flow. Extremely low heights, low pressure. Snow snow snow for someone.

Screenshot_20201219-222930_Samsung Internet.jpg

Indeed. Bullseye for the centre of England in this run. 10cm+. but like the Tiers it will probably all change again tomorrow..

9EF82176-1B8D-402D-BF28-C6FABA171F91.png

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
4 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

I can’t remember a single occasion over the last 10 years when the GFS was correct and the ECM moved significantly towards it. 

I can .....it doesn’t happen a lot but it does happen ....I recall ecm getting it wrong off the eastern seaboard at just T96 a couple years ago 

not sure the latest incarnation of the ec op has had such an experience yet though ....

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
6 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

I can’t remember a single occasion over the last 10 years when the GFS was correct and the ECM moved significantly towards it. 

It hasn’t happened yet either - the 00z runs will give us a further indication.

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Cold Winter Aficionado

Cold Winter

Posted
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather - any kind!
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
Posted

Fab chart... (if anyone comments on the uppers at this range I’ll politely ignore them! )

BB394B19-7987-4A1A-B98B-D06E7E7A323E.png

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Vikos Seasoned

Vikos

Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
Posted

Oven-fresh just released ECMWF 12z scenarios

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Indeed. Bullseye for the centre of England in this run. 10cm+. but like the Tiers it will probably all change again tomorrow..

9EF82176-1B8D-402D-BF28-C6FABA171F91.png

Yes brother. Exactly where i live! Its filthy weather porn 

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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted
5 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Looks like the 12:00 runs are more amplified than the 6:00 runs, strange.

Yep You would expect the two to be swapped 

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Bartlett High Aficionado

Bartlett High

Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
Posted
3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yes brother. Exactly where i live! Its filthy weather porn 

Gotta love that M4 corridor. 

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

I can’t remember seeing a low dropping south se from Greenland and maintaining that depth for so many days.

You’d expect that to fill more quickly . 

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
2 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Oven-fresh just released ECMWF 12z scenarios

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They look overly baked to me

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

And a big strat warming going on at just 246 now.  This is a stronger warming and slightly earlier compared to the 12z!

image.thumb.png.11198610335fc82aab3d9eab6ac596c3.png

The NH profile doesn't need more than a nudge to completely bring it to pieces

image.thumb.png.f87d84ca2ce07fdbc6f01f63a388f108.png

As stated on here earlier, ignore the microscale at this point, it's all about the bigger picture.  

 

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted (edited)

Lots of ominous light blues and random wedges of heights. Is this the first run showing an ever slowing zonal wind???

Hmmmmm.....

Also round 3 of amp coming with a vortex in absolute bits. Lets see where FI takes us here

Edited by Scott Ingham
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Lots of ominous light blues and random wedges of heights. Is this the first run showing an ever slowing zonal wind???

Hmmmmm.....

To soon no?

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Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted (edited)

No sign of real cold. As per usual the Met not going with GFS. 

Edited by Spah1
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JeffC Accomplished

JeffC

Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
Posted
1 hour ago, Scott Ingham said:

What you need to appreciate is this winter we have something in our beds and if we fail to get it up (the Greenland high) we will surely explode at the end when the SSW kicks in. 

Could be worse last year the only thing we had to look at were Tight isobars top shelf magazines

And like all those top shelf publications I could follow the pictures better than the words..

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, That ECM said:

To soon no?

Youd think so yeah but even without a ssw the vortex has taken all manner of hits at this stage

Edited by Scott Ingham
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