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Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

BlueHedgehog074

By BlueHedgehog074
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Weather vane Contributor

Weather vane

Posted
  • Location: Laois, Ireland
  • Location: Laois, Ireland
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

There will be no UK high in the next 10 days. 

Its a complete over reaction to a couple of flatter suites.

You're prob right Scott. I made my UK heights comment based on looking through all the gfs members from 06:00, but looking at previous two runs, there isn't really consistent support for any significant height rises. 

Edited by Weather vane
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Swave Snow Aficionado

Swave Snow

Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Location: NW London
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Latest Euro4 snow accumulation up to Monday afternoon. Still a lot of uncertainty with this one.

E5B3F334-1F5D-4489-A20C-F8E61BE5A508.jpeg

wow I wonder if its correct for the Aviemore area Merry Christmas everyone 

Edited by Swave Snow
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captaincroc Community Regular

captaincroc

Posted
  • Location: Crewe
  • Location: Crewe
Posted
5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Latest Euro4 snow accumulation up to Monday afternoon. Still a lot of uncertainty with this one.

E5B3F334-1F5D-4489-A20C-F8E61BE5A508.jpeg

Yeah, looks like it will be from the showers packing in from the west? Exciting week ahead. 

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

Big ECM rollin’ I’m really intrigued by these increasing references to gfs parallel is it because it’s more consistent? Does it have creditabilty? I think a test we can apply is how it matches up with ukm and ecm at 144 which is where current gfs is diverging and frankly the changes are there from 120..

 

 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Parts of northern Lancashire will likely get hammered late tomorrow experience tells me.

Yes the EURO4 run is interesting, will be interested to see how it compares with HARMONIE tomorrow, here cumulative snow fall (not settling) to T54:

E56076F8-8EEB-4C51-A91D-550DEBAAFB36.thumb.png.e710f0ad8388b07ea5a2d366b458d47f.png

Edited by Mike Poole
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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes the EURO4 run it interesting, will be interested to see how it compares with HARMONIE tomorrow, here cumulative snow fall (not settling) to T54:

E56076F8-8EEB-4C51-A91D-550DEBAAFB36.thumb.png.e710f0ad8388b07ea5a2d366b458d47f.png

The mean wind speed tomorrow is looking to be South of West which will funnel most streamers into Burnley, Forest of Bowland, Southern Dales up to Hawes. 4-8cm here up to or over 20cm possible above 250mts no exaggeration

Edited by Kasim Awan
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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Latest Euro4 snow accumulation up to Monday afternoon. Still a lot of uncertainty with this one.

E5B3F334-1F5D-4489-A20C-F8E61BE5A508.jpeg

And that patch down the m1from leicester / Birmingham to london looks to me as if it’s seeing a trough in the flow.. which most of know are impossible to pick out beyond 48/60 hours.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Latest Euro4 snow accumulation up to Monday afternoon. Still a lot of uncertainty with this one.

E5B3F334-1F5D-4489-A20C-F8E61BE5A508.jpeg

It's already turning wintry on northern hills.

Untitled.thumb.png.cf1c8f2f29cce8a89fde6ff9cb20c4f8.png

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

For those getting excited by Euro 4...48 hrs before the last snow event (early Dec) it gave me 8cm, what I got was an hour of light rain, not even sleet and that was at 120m asl. Harmonie gave me 15cm so she can do one as well...I’m not bitter,...honest

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
5 minutes ago, Weather vane said:

You're prob right Scott. I made my UK heights comment based on looking through all the gfs members from 06:00, but looking at previous two runs, there isn't really consistent support for any significant height rises. 

Never say never mate. Saying 0% scientifically is a rediculous comment but it would comfortably be under 10%. Its going to be 2-4 days of relaxed amplification as angular momentum drops but after the large mountain torque event on the 31st to 1st of January expect to see height rises again anywyere between Greenland and Iceland. So juicy charts back in the offing end of first week in janyary with the depths of fi starting to show the effects of a ssw as well by then.

Absolutely no reason not to enjoy and be excited about January. Some of the thingd ive seen about the cold spell ending new year onwards are so far wide of the mark id just ignore them honestly mate

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

ECM very similar to gem at 120 at least

 

ECMOPEU12_120_1 (1).png

GEMOPEU12_120_1.png

ECH1-144 (1).gif

Given all the worry I'd take that! 

Edited by Griff
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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

ECM pretty much on the same trajectory as the UKMO. The ridge should topple to our north to set up an easterly flow.

image.thumb.gif.7b59dc3e91c7f2f5f931300f6143780b.gif

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

I prefer ECM 144 I think we now agree that heights into Greenland shop has sailed for new year at least.. but on this ECM we look stronger and a little sharper with heights towards scandi...

image.thumb.png.827ddd7a84f47e2616703e0e72bb376d.png

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Spot the odd one out @144h

ECM, GEM, GFS in order

ECM1-144 (10).gif

gem-0-144 (2).png

gfs-0-144 (10).png

Gem with more vertical heights to our west.. I was hoping it would have been gfs

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM sticking with very little snow Monday away from Scottish and welsh mountains

3E05D6A2-65EC-4366-AA24-661A414F890A.jpeg

C0F39A28-0E53-4D24-A41A-8C098F8857AB.jpeg

It doesnt show what happens beforw 9am.

That snow on the south coast has already dived south through yorkshire and the north midlands

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Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted
6 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

ECM goes with UKMO 

11FCAAC3-476B-40F9-864A-957219C6554A.gif

ED0DF585-1E17-44CA-9764-378D86EA9C80.png

This is better from ECM a broader wedge of heights stretching up at this stage

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Popular Post
Posted
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM sticking with very little snow Monday away from Scottish and welsh mountains

3E05D6A2-65EC-4366-AA24-661A414F890A.jpeg

C0F39A28-0E53-4D24-A41A-8C098F8857AB.jpeg

The time frames before then early Monday morning show band of snow moving in across NW England, Wales and the West Country, even to lower levels, so not strictly true. Could be a nice snowy treat to wake up to in the west Monday morning.

The trend for the low is to dive SE from SW to central S England towards northern France on most models, even UKV is trending that way, so the SE perhaps staying high and dry, though ppn is shown to move in off the North Sea during the evening over EA and SE - so one worth watching.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

There is still some differences even with the ECM and UKMO with trough separation in the Atlantic though at 144 .

ECH1-144.thumb.gif.f3e8159ff87d75eac53e583b5e69739b.gif960619555_UN144-21(1).thumb.gif.3ebd833d2c3e57d6b22a531dd1591cbe.gif

it does break away though at 168 so just timings really.

ECH1-168.thumb.gif.a71697255df9ec4afb3f80908a3b8ddc.gif

 

 

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