Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[Whether Idle]

53 minutes ago, Kent Clipper said:

ECM 240 - Easterly across England and Wales with harsh frosts in sheltered parts of Scotland. Wintry showers would be the order of the day. At this stage we would want some sort of retrogression to Greenland to allow for a fresh supply of arctic air to give us a top up and lower those 850's.

Yes Kent Clipper, I agree.

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

But snow cant be modelled until within 48 hours as the latest shift north in snow on the higher res models show.

To say no snow based on modeos 144+ is futile 

If its cold enough snow will always pop up in the way of troughs etc.

Synoptics show a possibility of cold all the way through January intensifying week on week.

Snow comes hand in hand

December 2010 looked dry in fact it showed 8 days with no snow on the snow rows 120 hours + so historic us very much a possibility 

I wasn’t saying that it wouldn’t snow - only how high the bar needs to be. I’m not seeing widespread disruptive snow as a likely outcome for next week, although it can’t be ruled out. Slightly longer term, the signs are there, but no guarantees that January will end up in the historic bracket. I hope it does though!

[Eagle Eye]

GFS has been going back and forth at wether the High wins in the end. 

One day more another day another destiny. 

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

I wasn’t saying that it wouldn’t snow - only how high the bar needs to be. I’m not seeing widespread disruptive snow as a likely outcome for next week, although it can’t be ruled out. Slightly longer term, the signs are there, but no guarantees that January will end up in the historic bracket. I hope it does though!

No i agree no guarentees there never is.

But i cant remember the last time we had so many tickets to a raffle that could bring historic winter weather.

There is a chance and as good a chance as it could get taking into account the current background signals

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM mean and spread, there is a lot of uncertainty and it affects us (highlighted the tip of Greenland), T240:

Does the mean look more uncertain or worse than the 0z, here’s the 0z:

The medium term evolution is uncertain at the moment, as far as this model is concerned, I think continued high latitude blocking of some sort will win out, before the SSW starts to affect things.  Interesting times...

Looks same as 00z to me!!maybe not as much ridging into greenland and also a more continental influence which may not be a bad thing!!!takes marginality out of it at least!!❄

[Sweatyman]

9 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Beautiful ECM mean, Atlantic absolutely dead and buried without the SSW and other factors about to come into play 

Beautifully Cold

[Eskimo]

Just to prove a point here and I think it's important in this thread so people can interpret the charts a little better

Back in 2010, 4 days before the 'event', the GFS was modelling no snow for southern areas and a band of snow for north eastern areas.

What actually happened, just 96 hours later, was little snow for north eastern areas and a band of snow crossing south eastern areas that dumped around 4-8". 

Things change quite rapidly. 

Edited December 26, 2020 by Eskimo

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Eskimo said:

Just to prove a point here and I think it's important in this thread so people can interpret the charts a little better

Back in 2010, 4 days before the 'event', the GFS was modelling no snow for southern areas and a band of snow for north eastern areas.

What actually happened, just 72 hours later, was little snow for north eastern areas and a band of snow crossing south eastern areas that dumped around 4-8". 

Things change quite rapidly. 

Good post mate. Snow is so hard to forecast.

People need to enjoy the ride while its here instead of moaning.

Were in a cold spell with potenital.

We could be in a barlett scenario

[DanDorsetUK]

Looking through the models this evening i still see no definitive signs of SSW influence. Regardless of whether it becomes a displacement or split you will soon see a very sudden obvious change. Looking at our potential starting point for SSW influence we should be in a very good position when that time comes. I think it wont be long maybe a couple of days untill they begin to play with this scenario.

Also looking at the amount of instability on the live satellite coming in now i would not be surprised to see more locations affected by snow come Monday.

Things all looking very promising from where I'm looking. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Beautifully Cold

Cheshire streamer? snaw, sleet, rain or zilch?

[Bartlett High]

4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Good post mate. Snow is so hard to forecast.

People need to enjoy the ride while its here instead of moaning.

Were in a cold spell with potenital.

We could be in a barlett scenario

[MATTWOLVES 3]

 Its as you were with the ECM mean,it stays cold throughout the 10 day period...what more can we ask for,what more do you want from me,I give you my all,I have nothing left to give... Happy Boxing day

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Eskimo said:

Just to prove a point here and I think it's important in this thread so people can interpret the charts a little better

Back in 2010, 3 days before the 'event', the GFS was modelling no snow for southern areas and a band of snow for north eastern areas.

What actually happened, just 72 hours later, was little snow for north eastern areas and a band of snow crossing south eastern areas that dumped around 4-8". 

Things change quite rapidly. 

The point it proves is that the GFS is a rubbish model for precipitation let alone snow!  It isn’t what it is for though, to be fair to the GFS.  We have lots of short range models now, and maybe we didn’t in 2010, my go to ones on Meteociel are the EURO4 and HARMONIE (daughter of HIRLAM) - it is untested but the HIRLAM it replaced was very good indeed.  

[Scott Ingham]

4 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

Hahaha no offence Barty!

[Sweatyman]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Cheshire streamer? snaw, sleet, rain or zilch?

Graupel from the east

[seabreeze86]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

Just to prove a point here and I think it's important in this thread so people can interpret the charts a little better

Back in 2010, 4 days before the 'event', the GFS was modelling no snow for southern areas and a band of snow for north eastern areas.

What actually happened, just 96 hours later, was little snow for north eastern areas and a band of snow crossing south eastern areas that dumped around 4-8". 

Things change quite rapidly. 

I’ve just got over that and you bring it back up

[Valleyboy]

32 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Typical of an Easterly to bring a mild sector all the way from Siberia, which of course still delivers snow on the French coast.

Erm I haven’t seen any deep fetch winds from Siberia showing, yet.

[ALL ABOARD]

[Mike Poole]

Well 4 clusters today, T192-T240, and all charts bordered red (blocked):

While cluster 1 might look better for snow in the UK, I’d take any of them to be honest!  

[bluearmy]

Just an observation on the ec op and control which both bring in low uppers (as low as -8c ) on an ene flow.  We get associated  precip but no snowfall  !!  My assumption is that the North Sea is currently too warm and moderates the lower atmospheric temps.  Dp’s on ec op are visible and around 1 x 2 c.  Can’t see these on the control but clearly must be the wrong side of freezing .....
 

just some caution re any potential easterly .....

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just an observation on the ec op and control which both bring in low uppers (as low as -8c ) on an ene flow.  We get associated  precip but no snowfall  !!  My assumption is that the North Sea is currently too warm and moderates the lower atmospheric temps.  Dp’s on ec op are visible and around 1 x 2 c.  Can’t see these on the control but clearly must be the wrong side of freezing .....
 

just some caution re any potential easterly .....

Lets hope we then get a bitter south easterly wind instead then it takes the north sea out the equation altogether!

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Lets hope we then get a bitter south easterly wind instead then it takes the north sea out the equation altogether!

Which would be bone dry!

[Paul White.]

27 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

GFS has been going back and forth at wether the High wins in the end. 

One day more another day another destiny. 

This never-ending road to Calvary 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Which would be bone dry!

Aye, except Aberdeen area

[Allseasons-Si]

That is a cracking mean at day ten with cold continental dry air from the east,it would certainly feel bitter.

eps and ext eps at day ten and we are still on course for a cold spell guys.

and check this out,nearly all members going for a reversal in the strat.

sos for short text,late eating my tea this evening.

 

 

 

Edited December 26, 2020 by Allseasons-si