Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Personally, I’d prefer the high a little further north than that run at the expense of a few degrees on the uppers.

Well... Perhaps as other were speculating about it sniffing out a pattern change with the ridge collapsing, equally the next evolution could be scandi height rises? 

The plot thickens

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Personally, I’d prefer the high a little further north than that run at the expense of a few degrees on the uppers.

Yep,but we have low heights to the south so i will take that as a plus as this would prop the high up.

some -8's popping up at day 9.

[snow mad]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

In January an easterly that will feel cold . When was the last time that happened? 

Surely be convection off that for east anglia and kent 

[Weathizard]

Ready for another wave of amplification in the Atlantic with that low diving S/SE at day 10?

[Speedbird]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

How is it still showing rain

 

That screams Thames streamer potential.

I reckon they have run out of pink and purple ink . . .

Edited December 26, 2020 by Speedbird

[Snowmadsam]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

How is it still showing rain

Because these charts are unreliable that’s why

would have thought for charts with -5 uppers (sorry) also showing that what would be falling out of the sky would obviously be white....

a good run so far from the EC, let’s see what the ensembles also say

[Scott Ingham]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Personally, I’d prefer the high a little further north than that run at the expense of a few degrees on the uppers.

It will be further north nearer to time.

It makes sense that it is.

EAMT is the word.

Watch the trend around this period

Look at the pattern over the states on ecm 240 Mike

First signs there. The high above the UK will retrogress opening up another reload of cold from the North

Edited December 26, 2020 by Scott Ingham

[Man With Beard]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

How is it still showing rain

It's laughable for the first week in January, but would you believe it, slight warm sector entering the SE at the same time

I'll eat my hat if it rains on synoptics like that in January!

[syed2878]

1 hour ago, danm said:

No one has forecast snowmageddon or December 2010/Feb 2018 depth of cold at all though. We all accept that this is the start of a colder spell which could bring some snow and with the shredding of the PV, potential SSW and other background factors promoting amplification this could be the start of a protracted colder spell, something we’ve lacked now for many years. Will it mean wall to wall sub zero temperatures and weeks of laying snow? No, not initially at least. So with respect I think your engaging in a straw man argument. 

 yet with this set up not everywhere will get snow and that also confirm by today’s warning from the Met I cannot see any significant snow for low-lying Britain in the next 10 days yes the SSW might help then again it might not there is no guarantee that it would bring called to our shores. in fact the SSW mate shuffle the cards and take us out of the pattern we are in at this moment.

[sheikhy]

What an ecm!!forget the boring arctic air!!give us something more continental instead!!looking forward to the 18z!!!

[Methuselah]

Well, the GEFS 12Z ensembles are here -- and aren't they exciting!

    

    

There are plenty of cold days, no mild days, and even a couple of air-frosts (or 'arrests' as Google preferred!) Snow, how would I know? I guess I'm just about the only Net-weather member who doesn't know more about meteorology than the UK Met?!

But the NH Profiles continue to pique one's interest:

    

    

[Harsh Climate]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yep,but we have low heights to the south so i will take that as a plus as this would prop the high up.

some -8's popping up at day 9.

I think a lot of people just don't realise how bitter that would be, most certainly would produce an ice day for some! 

[Kent Clipper]

ECM 240 - Easterly across England and Wales with harsh frosts in sheltered parts of Scotland. Wintry showers would be the order of the day. At this stage we would want some sort of retrogression to Greenland to allow for a fresh supply of arctic air to give us a top up and lower those 850's.

Edited December 26, 2020 by Kent Clipper

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

It will be further north nearer to time.

It makes sense that it is.

EAMT is the word.

Watch the trend around this period

Yes I think the EPS will show this when they come out, operationals seem a bit volatile at the moment.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, Scott Ingham said:

This couldnt be anymore alike to my thinking.

Well still be on the right side of the jet when things relax in my opinion so i still believe were on the cusp of one of the longest periods of below average temperatures for a long long time 

I’m thinking that , and the models have now turned that way, that the Greeny HP was a red herring.  Ridging is there but the Greenland HP just goes.  However, Atlantic playing it’s part with a developing Scandi ridge could get interesting.

As of 22/12/20 Global temps were running at 0.2c above 79-2000 average....so those who are concerned about ‘where is the cold’....it’s very much around

 

BFTP

[Snowman.]

Would love to see the T2M from the ECM tonight. I imagine it will be quite cold.

 

Edited December 26, 2020 by Snowman.

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Yes I think the EPS will show this when they come out, operationals seem a bit volatile at the moment.

Agreed i am very happy atm.

Its a slow evolution to cold, colder and very cold.

January 21 looks extremely interesting

[sheikhy]

Euro4 gives a direct hit for parts of the midlands monday!surely its wrong!!is there any other models that agree with it?

[Paul]

A lot happening on the 15z run of the UKV this pm. 

First up, some serious winds overnight and into tomorrow morning - with gusts up around 80mph or thereabouts in some exposed places.

 

 

Sizeable 24 hour rain totals also - not good news for flood affected regions. 

Then we have the snow risk. And many parts will see sleet or snow falling from tonight through to Monday. Longer lasting lying snow will be a little harder to come by, with a bit of height helpful in that respect. 

 

So, plenty to focus on without even getting involved in FI at the moment!

 

[Nick F]

15z UKV, a high res model, still bullish in taking Monday's low and snow east over SE England and Mids. 

EURO4 and AROME similarly do this.

But EC and GFS not.

Jury's out on track until tomorrow, perhaps why MO holding off any warnings. Though for now the west looks most likely to see any disruptive snowfall.

Edited December 26, 2020 by Nick F

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Yes I think the EPS will show this when they come out, operationals seem a bit volatile at the moment.

ECM actually very similar to its last run. Pressure high to our NW and an easterly for the south. It’s better with heights further up towards Iceland this time but in the grand scheme of things it’s a minor change in 12hrs

[Allseasons-Si]

JMA at 192 looks pretty cold and follows the ECM/GEM models on the overall pattern for that timeframe,also shows a split there too

 

[Mike Poole]

JMA also shows the high further south and connecting east, cold just going south, T192:

Strat completely finished off by day 8 though:

Reflections on todays 12s, I think the medium term prospects are slightly reduced in terms of snow, increased in terms of cold - but - I would not like to be in the best possible synoptics before the SSW because that can go wrong!  So it is all OK as far as I can see.  Short range model watch for the next few days to see if we can land some snow...

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I’m thinking that , and the models have now turned that way, that the Greeny HP was a red herring.  Ridging is there but the Greenland HP just goes.  However, Atlantic playing it’s part with a developing Scandi ridge could get interesting.

As of 22/12/20 Global temps were running at 0.2c above 79-2000 average....so those who are concerned about ‘where is the cold’....it’s very much around

 

BFTP

Its just going to get colder and colder and the set up is still ripe for troughs and unexpected snow next week followed by a brief drier slot but feeling absolutely freezing to then anothet way less marginal set up.

This is always the best type of cold.

No good getting a quick 20cm to thaw out.

Get the set up get the cold pooling and becoming dense at all levels and we have a recipe for magical things down the line. 

Id rather a snow storm in the middle of January when we hit the peak of cold.

Middle of jan - middle of feb

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Its just going to get colder and colder and the set up is still ripe for troughs and unexpected snow next week followed by a brief drier slot but feeling absolutely freezing to then anothet way less marginal set up.

This is always the best type of cold.

No good getting a quick 20cm to thaw out.

Get the set up get the cold pooling and becoming dense at all levels and we have a recipe for magical things down the line. 

Id rather a snow storm in the middle of January when we hit the peak of cold.

Middle of jan - middle of feb

Euro 4 now significantly further east. ECM has hinted at this so jury's still out though a central track is gaining credibility now. Any thoughts?