Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Jackfrost]

Thanks for sharing those 2010 memories, everyone. Unfortunately I wasn't around to experience 1981-82, and I'm too young to have any memories of Feb. '96, so that third week of Dec. 2010 is my most perfect winter memory*. The deep snow cover, the metre-long icicles, the crystal blue skies, walking around town late at night in minus double-digit temperatures while the Christmas lights shone... it was close to nirvana.

Is anyone aware of an archive of radar captures going back that far? I'd love to revisit it.

*Storm Emma is a close second: a greater amount of snow fell from that, but it was powdery and drifted heavily which left some areas bare. Also, instead of a run of crystal-clear days, it was grey and murky and it all started melting after three days.

Edited December 4, 2022 by Jackfrost

[keithlucky]

23 hours ago, keithlucky said:

In the mad thread they die for the Beast when a North Wind blows the not interested,So toy throwing starts.

Let's see what happens a clean northerly  Thursday night Friday Saturday looks promising for snow showers.

23 hours ago, keithlucky said:

In the mad thread they die for the Beast when a North Wind blows the not interested,So toy throwing starts.

Let's see what happens a clean northerly  Thursday night Friday Saturday looks promising for snow showers.

[keithlucky]

1 hour ago, keithlucky said:

Let's see what happens a clean northerly  Thursday night Friday Saturday looks promising for snow showers.

Let's see what happens a clean northerly  Thursday night Friday Saturday looks promising for snow showers.

Andy favorite images.

[Crepuscular Ray]

My brother reports that there were a few light flakes of snow in the air first thing this morning when he took the dog for a walk up on Garreg Lwyd.

[BlizzardOfoz]

Its coming home its coming home Snowfalls coming home. Sledges being waxed Wales is gonna have a pasting. 

[whiskers]

3 hours ago, Afrayedknot said:

Its coming home its coming home Snowfalls coming home. Sledges being waxed Wales is gonna have a pasting. 

hope so!

[Cymro]

6 hours ago, Afrayedknot said:

Its coming home its coming home Snowfalls coming home. Sledges being waxed Wales is gonna have a pasting. 

I would much prefer that the snow was Yma o hyd rather than "coming home"  

[Sky Full]

The GFS currently shows this ‘lying snow depth’ chart for the 12 December - just seven days away:

Hardly anywhere in Wales without snow in this chart.   What’s even more surprising is that some snow is predicted to be lying on the ground at least until the 20th December which is the furthest reach of this model.  This indicates below freezing temperatures even during the day.  Who knows, this might even be a conservative outlook….🌨🌨️️

[Pembroke Dangler]

6 hours ago, Sky Full said:

The GFS currently shows this ‘lying snow depth’ chart for the 12 December - just seven days away:

Hardly anywhere in Wales without snow in this chart.   What’s even more surprising is that some snow is predicted to be lying on the ground at least until the 20th December which is the furthest reach of this model.  This indicates below freezing temperatures even during the day.  Who knows, this might even be a conservative outlook….🌨🌨️️

Looks suggestive of a Dangler set up to me as there’s also snow cover showing on the north Devon coast too 

[keithlucky]

7 hours ago, Sky Full said:

The GFS currently shows this ‘lying snow depth’ chart for the 12 December - just seven days away:

Hardly anywhere in Wales without snow in this chart.   What’s even more surprising is that some snow is predicted to be lying on the ground at least until the 20th December which is the furthest reach of this model.  This indicates below freezing temperatures even during the day.  Who knows, this might even be a conservative outlook….🌨🌨️️

Snow still shows reaching NWales pushing South snow cover in the North how much energy left on the Cold Front as it reaches S Wales is unsure,radar watching as normal LOL.

[andymusic]

Wales gets a pasting out in Fi land with not one but two advancing lows into the cold air gfs 12z

[keithlucky]

1 hour ago, andymusic said:

Wales gets a pasting out in Fi land with not one but two advancing lows into the cold air gfs 12z

Let's hope repeat 1979

[Sky Full]

Now the GFS has 30cm of lying snow over most of central Wales by the 17th December…….!!!

Is that what’s known in scientific circles as an ‘upgrade’?  
 

(EDIT.   sorry, @andymusic I realised that was the same chart you posted earlier!   Still, it’s worth seeing twice!)

Edited December 5, 2022 by Sky Full

[DeepSnow]

It amazes me that even with good cold uppers the charts still don't want to give us snow on the South coast but im sure it will be different come the time! Would love a 2018 redo with 2ft of snow down to the coast

[keithlucky]

1 hour ago, DeepSnow said:

It amazes me that even with good cold uppers the charts still don't want to give us snow on the South coast but im sure it will be different come the time! Would love a 2018 redo with 2ft of snow down to the coast

Day tempretures +3 -4 at night even colder come weekend.-8 Uppers ,just need some precipation come Thursday lol! This is cold front moving south Thursday.

Edited December 5, 2022 by keithlucky

[Marcus_surfer]

Ill happily take this dry and cold weather coming up now! Its looking like alot more sunshine for us now which is better than mild and drizzle! Looking forward to some frosty mornings. Oh and not looking at any PPN charts, pointless. Get the cold air in first then we will look at them, wind direction will also play a part in what areas get PPN too.

[Wetterfrosch]

Quite agree, frosty nights will be the noteworthy change this week. MO output for my area remains timid with just a 30% chance of a snow shower Thursday and Friday night. Being so close to the see means that solid PPN tends to fall as hail or snow grains with DP's rarely low enough to produce 'proper' snow flakes but we'll see. Next week's outlook does look promising but until it's in the reliable I won't get too excited.

[keithlucky]

Interesting met showing weakening front Thursday but showing Streamer forming Friday ,quoted today showing increasing chance of wintry showers in Western parts.The difference in this air mass it not a dry airmass ,so as the days go by increasing chances of snow⁰                    Latest fax shows a small system forming around s west Wales,Interesting.

[whiskers]

Lots of excited people in the mad thread saying even south could get lots of snow, does that mean us? 
lots of very excited people in there this morning! Fingers crossed for us!
 

I will get excited when @andymusic tells us!

[mattrout92]

Both the ECM and GFS this morning going for significant snow events next week in Wales as Low Pressure systems to our South / South West bump into the cold air in place over us. Still a long way off though!

Edited December 6, 2022 by mattrout92

[andymusic]

1 hour ago, mattrout92 said:

Both the ECM and GFS this morning going for significant snow events next week in Wales as Low Pressure systems to our South / South West bump into the cold air in place over us. Still a long way off though!

[Marcus_surfer]

Looks good right now guys but it WILL chop and change ! Models are really struggling for next week. Lets focus on this week.

[Clair_Witch]

It's nice to see everyone back for Winter 22/23. 

Buckle up, no doubt we'll be on one hell of a rollercoaster! 

 

[keithlucky]

4 hours ago, keithlucky said:

 

 

Borrowed from Corithan Quote concerning LP development over Irish Sea for Thursday .

Edited December 6, 2022 by keithlucky

[DeepSnow]

I think if anything does fall during the day on lower ground and around the coast, it will likely be rain for this week/weekend as daytime highs of 3-5c, however could obviously turn to snow with evaporative cooling etc.

I am liking the perspect of the battleground snow from potential sliders next week, which could give us a lot of snow (way to far out i know but just for fun). I think even low ground and the coast would get some good snow from that too. Just got to hope it doesn't go too far north, in order to keep it an all snow event and keep us in the cold air after. Very exciting and hopefully most of us will see something over the next week or so!