Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[keithlucky]

9 hours ago, keithlucky said:

Yes over the last 30 not many snowfalls ,we need to enjoy this spell, Very simular spell to 2010 .Come next week hoar frost will become a problem, personally I cannot see this spell breaking up for a least 14 days ,

Enough said lol

Edited December 2, 2022 by keithlucky

[Sky Full]

Just for fun……GFS is currently modelling this snow depth chart for 13th December at midnight:
 

 

Don’t get carried away yet - this is still 11 days away and bound to change.  Could be worse, could be better…..we’ll soon find out!

[DeepSnow]

8 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Just for fun……GFS is currently modelling this snow depth chart for 13th December at midnight:
 

 

Don’t get carried away yet - this is still 11 days away and bound to change.  Could be worse, could be better…..we’ll soon find out!

Thats good to see (tho with a pinch of salt ) after the goings on in the mad thread with things being further north and the south missing out, its nice to see some potential snow for us southerners! Hopefully it will bring a bit more snow to us on the coast than 1cm if im being picky, maybe 1inch instead would be nice lol 

[snefnug]

Oh dear, I think they think it’s all over on the MAD thread…

[andymusic]

1 minute ago, snefnug said:

Oh dear, I think they think it’s all over on the MAD thread…

just a model blip for the mo - generally it's gonna get a lot colder - details of how cold and snow will come early next week

[Marcus_surfer]

It's nice to see it getting colder but for most next week looks generally poor with cloudy conditions and showers, some mountain wintryness and feeling cold.

Edited December 2, 2022 by Marcus_surfer

[snefnug]

Oh goody!  This morning MAD be mostly happy in the happy house.  Toys all rounded up and back in prams.  

Edited December 3, 2022 by snefnug

[DeepSnow]

Yep it was just a wobble as we get every cold spell predicted lol. BBC weather seemed good saying a cold northerly as next week goes on with snow possible just about anywhere!

I would love to see a nice front come up from the south at somepoint, stalling over us to keep the cold air in and dump a load of snow, is that asking too much though?

[snefnug]

4 minutes ago, DeepSnow said:

Yep it was just a wobble as we get every cold spell predicted lol. BBC weather seemed good saying a cold northerly as next week goes on with snow possible just about anywhere!

I would love to see a nice front come up from the south at somepoint, stalling over us to keep the cold air in and dump a load of snow, is that asking too much though?

Could we wait til I get my final sainsbury order in please?

[Missdolly]

Just stay away from the mad lot guys , same every year with them ! 

We have our own weather system here in Wales especially the valleys and hills , a lot on the mad thread probably haven't seen decent snow since 2010 , whilst we are fortunate to have had a few events in-between such as 2013 , 2017 and 2018 so fingers crossed for this winter . 

 

[mattrout92]

Morning everyone, looks like we could be in for a cold first half of December for once. Details on the depth of cold / any snowfall far from certain at the moment, but this morning's GFS run for later next week wouldn't go a miss for our part of the world!

Here's hoping for a good Winter 22/23 of chasing, although maybe not too cold as those energy prices are rather high this year!

[Cymro]

In some cases despite anguish in the mod thread, we in Wales are in a slightly better position with winds veering more Nwtly at times and convective roaring easterlies rarely deliver here unless it’s a breakdown scenario anyway. And to those of us to the west of the Beacons, Cambrian Mountains and Snowdonia, in general easterlies aren’t great for snow. 

Edited December 3, 2022 by Cymro

[andymusic]

[keithlucky]

1 hour ago, andymusic said:

Yes Thursday seems the start of Winter fun,Cold front pushes down from the North hopefully no warm sector mix in .All areas above 200 metres will be snow.

[DeepSnow]

1 hour ago, keithlucky said:

Yes Thursday seems the start of Winter fun,Cold front pushes down from the North hopefully no warm sector mix in .All areas above 200 metres will be snow.

Whats the likely hood of those below 100m? Would we be looking more likely cold rain from this front? Im in a small dip but the top of my street either side is 60-80m asl. I think I need to move on top of a hill lol

[snefnug]

I’ve decided that dipping into MAD thread is like paddling in sea in summer. Elated when tide is is, despondent when tide  a mile out.  Quite hypnotic sometimes, the ebbs and flows of despair and joy….

[Jackfrost]

As is often the case in these battleground events, South and Mid Wales are in the sweet spot. The usual caveats apply (ten, (well, nine) days out, subject to much change etc), but the signal has been there for some kind of wintriness in the second week of the month for a few days now.

Also, the friendly annual reminder going into this cold period that the rest of the site, especially the MOD/MAD thread, comes with a strong NIMBYist streak in which Wales is all but invisible, and not to take every development to heart. Hypothetically, the bulk of Wales could widely see 40 cm of snow (the same could apply to our equally overlooked friends in southwest England), but a patchy, slushy covering in the Midlands and southeast from the same system would render it all a "non-event".

Edited December 3, 2022 by Jackfrost

[keithlucky]

2 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

As is often the case in these battleground events, South and Mid Wales are in the sweet spot. The usual caveats apply (ten, (well, nine) days out, subject to much change etc), but the signal has been there for some kind of wintriness in the second week of the month for a few days now.

Also, the friendly annual reminder going into this cold period that the rest of the site, especially the MOD/MAD thread, comes with a strong NIMBYist streak in which Wales is all but invisible, and not to take every development to heart. The bulk of Wales could easily see 50 cm of snow (and the same could be said for our equally overlooked friends in southwest England), but a patchy, slushy covering in the Midlands and southeast from the same system would render the whole thing a "non-event".

In the mad thread they die for the Beast when a North Wind blows the not interested,So toy throwing starts.

[Jackfrost]

15 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

In the mad thread they die for the Beast when a North Wind blows the not interested,So toy throwing starts.

This is true. I suppose it's inevitable as the bulk of the UK's population lives in the southeast, Midlands, northwest and Yorkshire, but it does trigger some eye-rolling when seemingly all of the talk is about scenarios that aren't very relevant to us "forgotten" peoples.

And yes, while I take interest in easterlies, give me an unstable, long-draw northerly any day. They often deliver for the whole of Wales, not just the north and west coasts. Did the Swansea area experience the streamer of Dec. 18th 2010 at all? That was from a northerly with a northwesterly component and there was ~40 cm of snow in the Valleys from that.

Edited December 3, 2022 by Jackfrost

[keithlucky]

21 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

This is true. I suppose it's inevitable as the bulk of the UK's population lives in the southeast, Midlands, northwest and Yorkshire, but it does trigger some eye-rolling when seemingly all of the talk is about scenarios that aren't very relevant to us "forgotten" peoples.

And yes, while I take interest in easterlies, give me an unstable, long-draw northerly any day. They often deliver for the whole of Wales, not just the north and west coasts. Did the Swansea area experience the streamer of Dec. 18th 2010 at all? That was from a northerly with a northwesterly component and there was ~40 cm of snow in the Valleys from that.

Yes you correct Started November 28th eased off around xmas ,more snow in January Even in Swansea had lying snow for 18 days 

[Pembroke Dangler]

25 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

This is true. I suppose it's inevitable as the bulk of the UK's population lives in the southeast, Midlands, northwest and Yorkshire, but it does trigger some eye-rolling when seemingly all of the talk is about scenarios that aren't very relevant to us "forgotten" peoples.

And yes, while I take interest in easterlies, give me an unstable, long-draw northerly any day. They often deliver for the whole of Wales, not just the north and west coasts. Did the Swansea area experience the streamer of Dec. 18th 2010 at all? That was from a northerly with a northwesterly component and there was ~40 cm of snow in the Valleys from that.

Remember it very well, the Irish Sea snow maker was in full effect then and with the cold northerly coming in Wednesday I’d expect some places will get pasted again fingers crossed, hopefully get the fabled Pembrokeshire dangler setting up with heavy snow showers piling in. 

[dbaloo]

41 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

This is true. I suppose it's inevitable as the bulk of the UK's population lives in the southeast, Midlands, northwest and Yorkshire, but it does trigger some eye-rolling when seemingly all of the talk is about scenarios that aren't very relevant to us "forgotten" peoples.

And yes, while I take interest in easterlies, give me an unstable, long-draw northerly any day. They often deliver for the whole of Wales, not just the north and west coasts. Did the Swansea area experience the streamer of Dec. 18th 2010 at all? That was from a northerly with a northwesterly component and there was ~40 cm of snow in the Valleys from that.

Remember it well, walked to the pub for a few "black Friday beers" by the time we left about midnight it was throwing it down, one of the best walks home I have ever had from the pub..we are in a prime spot in the valleys, get the cold in, front from the west, battle ground scenario. Great pictures by the way  

[DeepSnow]

Loving that chart, it shows sleet here on the coast but it's too far out as you say so hypothetical for now, I'm sure if we get a small correction South and keep a bit of colder air in the mix it could be all snow here for us too! Exciting possibilities. 

[Marcus_surfer]

5 hours ago, Jackfrost said:

This is true. I suppose it's inevitable as the bulk of the UK's population lives in the southeast, Midlands, northwest and Yorkshire, but it does trigger some eye-rolling when seemingly all of the talk is about scenarios that aren't very relevant to us "forgotten" peoples.

And yes, while I take interest in easterlies, give me an unstable, long-draw northerly any day. They often deliver for the whole of Wales, not just the north and west coasts. Did the Swansea area experience the streamer of Dec. 18th 2010 at all? That was from a northerly with a northwesterly component and there was ~40 cm of snow in the Valleys from that.

Yep. We had persistant heavy snow showers for about 2 nights running. I remember one night it being incredible, Very heavy snow showers, 50p flakes and it built up fast. We had about 8inches here. All from the pembrokeshire dangler. Something we havent seen since then.

Edited December 3, 2022 by Marcus_surfer

[keithlucky]

14 hours ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

Remember it very well, the Irish Sea snow maker was in full effect then and with the cold northerly coming in Wednesday I’d expect some places will get pasted again fingers crossed, hopefully get the fabled Pembrokeshire dangler setting up with heavy snow showers piling in. 

This set is very simular, As front pushes through Thursday, possible streamers setting in a cold northerly wind you in the prime place,Radar watching becomes the must watch TV as streamers will developed quickly.