Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[Allseasons-Si]

OK,going to look in the mad thread now or should i bother

[Harsh Climate]

45 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

I've just read the NW thread and Kassim who seems to be an expert put this..  

 

'Whilst largely a 200m+ shower event otherwise, The streamer Tuesday AM is embedded in -7.5 uppers & so produces a base snow line of 175m, therefore a temporary covering down to 100m in East Manchester, etc is possible. Further west depends on streamer strength & timing. Above 200m in the Peaks this may be a fairly significant macro event."

 

 

Absolute nonsense, he has some good technical knowledge but those predictions are ridiculous. I bet any man here my left testicle and I will do there washing up and laundry for a month if that is correct! 

On Tuesday there will be some good lowland snow for many of us with some fantastic pics you mark my words :).

And not a dig but he said last Tuesdays snow was restricted to ground above 150m or something like that, here in kippax (48m) I woke up to a good covering .

This is why now casting and past experience can sometimes beat technical prowess and what you've read in a book.

 

[Sara_south_yorks]

25 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Absolute nonsense, he has some good technical knowledge but those predictions are ridiculous. I bet any man here my left testicle and I will do there washing up and laundry for a month if that is correct! 

On Tuesday there will be some good lowland snow for many of us with some fantastic pics you mark my words :).

And not a dig but he said last Tuesdays snow was restricted to ground above 150m or something like that, here in kippax (48m) I woke up to a good covering .

This is why now casting and past experience can sometimes beat technical prowess and what you've read in a book.

 

Can that part be extended to any women too  

[Harsh Climate]

3 minutes ago, snow*please said:

Can that part be extended to any women too  

. Yes certainly, I'm sure my girlfriend won't mind .

Seriously though I'm expecting low lying areas that catch a streamer at the right time Monday night - Wednesday morning to get between 2-7cm and higher ground 10cm+. Obviously Tuesday day of highest risk.

[Harsh Climate]

Bracknell charts has convergence zone setting up shop over North Yorkshire Tuesday pushing a little south through the day. I think this is where our chance comes from. Past experience tells me we could be in for a special evening Tuesday into Wednesday morning!  

Edited January 3, 2021 by Harsh Climate

[NorthYorksWeather]

13 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Bracknell charts has convergence zone setting up shop over North Yorkshire Tuesday pushing a little south through the day. I think this is where our chance comes from. Past experience tells me we could be in for a special evening Tuesday into Wednesday morning!  

Ey up right over my house! That’ll do nicely . 

[Eastyorks85]

I will be shocked if any low lying areas in East Yorkshire get any snow let alone laying snow hope to be wrong though. 

[Scott Ingham]

24 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Bracknell charts has convergence zone setting up shop over North Yorkshire Tuesday pushing a little south through the day. I think this is where our chance comes from. Past experience tells me we could be in for a special evening Tuesday into Wednesday morning!  

So youll get your turn first and us SouthYorkie boys after hahaha! Its okay i prefer night time snow!

[Tim A]

Just had a moderate snow shower which has left a dusting, 1.1c, ground was frozen from clear spells so that helped.

I find the Met Office automated ok for the temp profile, not conditions themselves.  So for LBA,  1c most of tonight, marginal,. 0c most of tomorrow night so better.  Only a guide though if an unexpected band of precipitation turns up temps will obviously be lower than forecast.

[Craigers]

39 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Bracknell charts has convergence zone setting up shop over North Yorkshire Tuesday pushing a little south through the day. I think this is where our chance comes from. Past experience tells me we could be in for a special evening Tuesday into Wednesday morning!  

Some one drawn a twig on ar house

[swfc]

Morning. Tbh this week looks a bit rank snow wise. So much promise a week ago, great modelling, nhp. Possibly a decent second half of January but who knows. 

[LeeSnowFan]

36 minutes ago, swfc said:

Morning. Tbh this week looks a bit rank snow wise. So much promise a week ago, great modelling, nhp. Possibly a decent second half of January but who knows. 

what happened to the streamer for yorkshire? tonight/tomorrow

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

1 hour ago, swfc said:

Morning. Tbh this week looks a bit rank snow wise. So much promise a week ago, great modelling, nhp. Possibly a decent second half of January but who knows. 

I must admit if you take the text forecast from the Met Office for Yorkshire for the next couple of days at face value it sounds that way.

Let's just hope there is more potential from this next couple of days than expected (at least from the Met).

Talking of Met Office forecasts I noted this wording mentioning becoming increasingly cold by the end of the week?

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Sunny spells and wintry showers on Wednesday. Cloudy on Thursday, with rain and snow. Brighter with wintry coastal showers on Friday. Becoming increasingly cold with sharp frosts and icy patches.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Mon 4 Jan 2021

Seems to fly in the face of most modelling?

[SouthYorks]

1 hour ago, swfc said:

Morning. Tbh this week looks a bit rank snow wise. So much promise a week ago, great modelling, nhp. Possibly a decent second half of January but who knows. 

Today looks poor compared to what models showed last week.  What few showers are about are of rain rather than snow, and there is no obvious trough formation or streamers as was being discussed.   Uppers colder tomorrow, so maybe an improvement for us as we go into Tuesday and Wednesday.

[Jeremy Shockey]

Harmonie 0z

WRF NMM 0z

Dont worry the streamers are still there for Yorkshire and the 850's will be -8 at 4.00 am on Tue morning. The Dew points are also likely to be more favourable than they have been in the last 36 hours . This is the best shot for East Yorkshire but still marginal near coasts and it would be helpful to have a bit of altitude as normal. 

Edited January 4, 2021 by Jeremy Shockey

[Jeremy Shockey]

 

As a rough guide , this streamer could be 50 miles further North or South but looks very promising ( if it hits you ) between 0300 hrs and 0900 hrs tomorrow morning,

i just pray for those in Hull and Beverley and all my snow loving friends in "snow starved E Yorkshire" that they get lucky this time   

[Scott Ingham]

2 hours ago, swfc said:

Morning. Tbh this week looks a bit rank snow wise. So much promise a week ago, great modelling, nhp. Possibly a decent second half of January but who knows. 

Not much has changed mate. We still have sn8w forecast tomorrow and wednesday. Today wasnt forecast to be cold eniugh till later

[SouthYorks]

47 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

Harmonie 0z

WRF NMM 0z

Dont worry the streamers are still there for Yorkshire and the 850's will be -8 at 4.00 am on Tue morning.

Yes, Harmonie has been fairly consistent in its runs showing this.  Hopefully its correct!  If it comes off, a few folk who get underneath it could get lucky with a decent covering, but there will also be lots who get nothing.

[winterof79]

Trust me if we get under that streamer it'll be fun. Flying back over Derbyshire who got under the Cheshire gap streamer, it looked like a winter wonderland. 

[Empire Of Snow]

21 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Trust me if we get under that streamer it'll be fun. Flying back over Derbyshire who got under the Cheshire gap streamer, it looked like a winter wonderland. 

This streamer could potentially give 7cm-10cm in places. Exact track is uncertain. Expect a snow warning from METO late afternoon/evening today for North and South Yorkshire but obviously some places will miss it. 

[Scott Ingham]

My text forecast for today hahaha

[Winter Cold]

Just had a rain shower here so nothing yet. Temps up to 2.5c already and it's not even 10am yet.

Dew point is also 1.7c currently so no chance at the mo...

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

There appears to be an area of more solid cloud West of Denmark on the latest European radar heading in our direction.

Not sure if this is our streamer potential or whether it will develop over the North Sea?

Edited January 4, 2021 by Kentish Snowman in Yorks

[adrianh]

Looks like there is potential for a decent more widespread event on Friday too - an exciting week ahead. We have had 2 small/moderate dumps of snow (Dronfield - edge of Sheffield) in the past week so it's already been way better than last year's dire affair. Hopefully the effects of the SSW will fall in our favour towards mid month

[Cold Winter]

3.9c here, showers so far have obviously been rain. 
Tonight I think will be the best chance for us to see some snow at lower levels.

Latest NMM (6z) shows a a line of showers (?streamer) heading north in the early hours.

 

Edited January 4, 2021 by Cold Winter