Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[jellybaby1969]

25 minutes ago, aggy said:

Great reading ! 
 

cumbernauld 20cm by Wednesday night , seems a bit generous but I’ll take it ? I’m driving to Ayrshire at 9 on Wednesday morning for work . I love the snow right the more the better but I hate driving in it 

You be fine once your south of Fenwick on the m77. It will be more

 green than white !!

[edo]

15 minutes ago, Allyw12 said:

Thanks @edo it would great to see some significant snow in Perth, as I feel we kinda of missed out in 2018.  

for sure we got about 4 fairly short showers of snow which gave us a decent covering but yet places like kinneswood not too far away had over a foot. We were just really unlucky i dont think was anything to do with geography like when the cairngorms eat alll the snow in a northerly and we see nothing....just plain bad luck 2018. Surely couldn't be so unlucky again in an easterly....they normally serve us well.

[Polar Side]

22 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

look what it evolves too though ... 

The ECM 12z is the snowiest run I've ever seen and that includes 2009/2010 - guessing that would be totals of 50-60cm+ here and metres on the pentlands

I agree, red warnings galore if it turns out like that!

[scottishandy]

        

 

Just sayin.....

 

[aggy]

33 minutes ago, jellybaby1969 said:

You be fine once your south of Fenwick on the m77. It will be more

 green than white !!

Hahaha I know tell me about it ! Used to live down there so well used to the greenery 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

If it does end up being a little bit slower in its movement with the developing low that might actually allow the cold to the east to be that bit more intense 

[LomondSnowstorm]

1 hour ago, aggy said:

Great reading ! 
 

cumbernauld 20cm by Wednesday night , seems a bit generous but I’ll take it ? I’m driving to Ayrshire at 9 on Wednesday morning for work . I love the snow right the more the better but I hate driving in it 

My hunch is we're looking at lower totals than modelled for the 'first half' of the potential snowmaggedon, and higher totals, maybe much higher, once the easterly proper sets in, and I think that's true for everywhere east of Glasgow. In part because, if we have -10C uppers or lower, you're going to see snow accumulate much more quickly - while I think we'll see some totals to relatively low levels tomorrow it'll still be a bit of a slog with temperature above freezing, whereas from the weekend onwards:

Quite spectacular cold forecast here with a number of ice days.

[metallikat34]

5 minutes ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

My hunch is we're looking at lower totals than modelled for the 'first half' of the potential snowmaggedon, and higher totals, maybe much higher, once the easterly proper sets in, and I think that's true for everywhere east of Glasgow. In part because, if we have -10C uppers or lower, you're going to see snow accumulate much more quickly - while I think we'll see some totals to relatively low levels tomorrow it'll still be a bit of a slog with temperature above freezing, whereas from the weekend onwards:

Quite spectacular cold forecast here with a number of ice days.

Love the metogram! Source?

[BurntFishTrousers]

In you come. 

Welcome. 

[Zerouali lives]

Somewhere like Braemar (330m) could be buried by next Wednesday - probably a foot or so in the next 2 or 3 days then it normally does well in an unstable ENE flow for showers feeding right through the Dee valley...

[Polar Side]

Well the bbc week ahead forecasts might just look a bit better if they are using the ECM op run as reported!

 

[LomondSnowstorm]

16 minutes ago, metallikat34 said:

Love the metogram! Source?

ECMWF Forecasts

WWW.ECMWF.INT

It's quite impressive how much they've made freely available now, you can also get Extreme Forecast Index plots, their weekly 30 day forecasts etc. as well! 

[Eastern Scotland WX]

Few light snow showers moving through here. 

[Penicuikblizzard]

1 hour ago, JoeShmoe said:

look what it evolves too though ... 

The ECM 12z is the snowiest run I've ever seen and that includes 2009/2010 - guessing that would be totals of 50-60cm+ here and metres on the pentlands

Is this based on the convective snow at the end of the week as I don’t see much lying in Edinburgh from the frontal stuff over the next few days 

[Eastern Scotland WX]

2 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Is this based on the convective snow at the end of the week as I don’t see much lying in Edinburgh from the frontal stuff over the next few days 

all snow from late Saturday and Sunday onwards should be non marginal convective snow at this stage

[Ross B]

Amber warning just issued for Northern England, hope one follows for Scotland...or do I

Edited February 1, 2021 by Ross B

[damianslaw]

Could be about to see a very snowy February in Scotland at least. Last time had such synoptics in Feb was late Feb 2018, this time they are arriving 3 weeks earlier.. 

[howham]

-3.2C and falling.

[tiff]

Really heavy snow shower between Largoward and St Andrews.  Road turned white in seconds!. Nothing coming down towards Largo..

[Zerouali lives]

-13c at Corgarff at 7.30pm - could be lower now

Edited February 1, 2021 by Zerouali lives

[edo]

Just getting practice in by watching the weather channel 

[Sceptical]

Temperature holding steady at minus 6.

 

[Ross B]

11 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Yeah just seen that!

Leeds could be in the sweet spot for roughly 10cm. (Warning is from 03:00 until 13:00)

Tuesday 04:00

 

Southern parts of Scotland could join in...

11:00

 

So much going on this week and beyond with regards to snowfall potential - hard to keep up! 

Yeah, we'll be lucky if we scrape a dusting here going by those charts. Plenty more chances over the next week if we don't get anything though. 

[LomondSnowstorm]

19 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Yeah just seen that!

Leeds could be in the sweet spot for roughly 10cm. (Warning is from 03:00 until 13:00)

Tuesday 04:00

 

Southern parts of Scotland could join in...

11:00

 

So much going on this week and beyond with regards to snowfall potential - hard to keep up! 

There really is - I think something I've failed to mention so far is that we do appear to have some convective stuff (albeit relatively organised looking) ahead of the front for Fife and Tayside tomorrow, in the morning at least, and I think this partly explains the 'gap' between the precipitation there and the main front. On the UKV the front seems to largely stall to the south until Wednesday morning when it comes north then westwards:

Marginal stuff, probably snow inland but a bit difficult to tell due to the time of day:

 

On the other hand you have the ICON with some heavy snow tomorrow evening for central areas:

Compared to

I think the difference may actually be explained by the angle of attack and by topography - the UKV seems to have the front 'jump' over the central belt to a large extent whereas the ICON has it converging there. I'm not too sure which is more likely, certainly both are possible, but it certainly makes a difference as to whether you'd be looking at an amber warning for tomorrow evening and where you'd place that.

 

Edited February 1, 2021 by LomondSnowstorm

[aggy]

1 hour ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

My hunch is we're looking at lower totals than modelled for the 'first half' of the potential snowmaggedon, and higher totals, maybe much higher, once the easterly proper sets in, and I think that's true for everywhere east of Glasgow. In part because, if we have -10C uppers or lower, you're going to see snow accumulate much more quickly - while I think we'll see some totals to relatively low levels tomorrow it'll still be a bit of a slog with temperature above freezing, whereas from the weekend onwards:

Quite spectacular cold forecast here with a number of ice days.

Well that is amazing !!!! Next problem for me would be trying to get back home as I travel up and down 3 times a week just need to keep an eye on developments