Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[Ross B]

The lightest of snow is now falling here from the front! 

[scottishandy]

3 minutes ago, Ross B said:

The lightest of snow is now falling here from the front! 

And I think I've just had a wee convective snow shower!

[LomondSnowstorm]

8 minutes ago, Ross B said:

The lightest of snow is now falling here from the front! 

I did wonder if anyone had checked the lamp post yet - it's such a messy hazy picture, with showers coming in from the east and this band from the west, and with the radar not really doing a great job consistently picking up on it, that it's hard to say what's actually happening. The showers look real but the band is very much a movable feast. Going to be a confusing couple of days with so much going on and so little certainty on where things *should* be.

 

Edited February 1, 2021 by LomondSnowstorm

[Eastern Scotland WX]

Ukv drops the temperature during precipitation tomorrow and that could bring bursts of snow to lower levels, but in between precip the temperature rises a bit. Gonna be very closely balanced.

[LomondSnowstorm]

5 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Yesterday...

 

Today...

 

Oh and the lightest snowfall I have ever witnessed in my life is now falling here - same as @Ross B 

@LomondSnowstorm great to have regular input from you again! Always a fantastic read! Much appreciated.

Cheers! Makes it easier that you've usually posted all the interesting UKV charts anyway and I can just riff on that

 

It's genuinely astounding to me that they used one outlier operational run to base an entirely weekly forecast on. At least when the Met Office based forecasts did that nonsense with UKMO runs that were a bit out there the warnings would at least match up - utterly bizarre to present that along with a warning for snow.

[edo]

35 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Yeah just seen that!

Leeds could be in the sweet spot for roughly 10cm. (Warning is from 03:00 until 13:00)

Tuesday 04:00

 

Southern parts of Scotland could join in...

11:00

 

So much going on this week and beyond with regards to snowfall potential - hard to keep up! 

ummm that's your job mate, you have set your own standard and this threads expectations 

[Quinach]

-6.1c at moment, impressively cold for this early in the evening.

Crystal clear skies but no sign of the ongoing aurora - though you get a hint of it up in Shetland...

Eshaness Lighthouse | Shetland Webcams

WWW.SHETLANDWEBCAMS.COM

---

Located on the edge of the Atlantic Ocean at Eshaness Lighthouse

 

[Polar Side]

10 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Yesterday...

 

Today...

 

Oh and the lightest snowfall I have ever witnessed in my life is now falling here - same as @Ross B 

@LomondSnowstorm great to have regular input from you again! Always a fantastic read! Much appreciated.

That’s more like it.

[JamesM]

Busy in here tonight. Is it going to snow?

Radar suggests light snow, the lamppost currently says no.

[Hairy Celt]

14 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Yesterday...

 

Today...

 

Oh and the lightest snowfall I have ever witnessed in my life is now falling here - same as @Ross B 

@LomondSnowstorm great to have regular input from you again! Always a fantastic read! Much appreciated.

Did you just make that up, or is this for real? Either way, ROFLMAO, I guess especially <no, slap, stop that now> 

[edo]

100 per cent real HC..... it was particularly remarkable seen as the model was out on its own.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Cannae quite believe I'm looking at six days+ of snaw symbols on the MetO forecast.

Tae fall oan auld snaw in the gairden...

And that's just warm up fir the beast. 

[101_North]

12 minutes ago, Scottish-Irish Skier said:

Cannae quite believe I'm looking at six days+ of snaw symbols on the MetO forecast.

The first snow symbol for here on my Met forecast is 3am Friday morning followed by another 23hrs of sleet  

Could be a long week or a week full of surprises

Edited February 1, 2021 by 101_North

[Michael Kaii]

1 minute ago, 101_North said:

The first snow symbol for here on my Met forecast is 3am Friday morning followed by another 23hrs of sleet  

Could be a long week or a week full of surprises

were the same in bo'ness...got an gutt feeling this is going to be a bust for me 

[101_North]

2 minutes ago, Michael Kaii said:

were the same in bo'ness...got an gutt feeling this is going to be a bust for me 

Up to the weekend maybe but if things play out as currently modelled there is a very low probability of disappointment after that 

Edited February 1, 2021 by 101_North

[edo]

i have the odd snow and rain together, that pleases me....based on models tonight the forecast is tosh....the forecast will catch up

[101_North]

Watching the radar for the last half an hour has been interesting. The two air flows are meeting almost over the house with the very light ppn fizzling out over the Pentlands but showers still moving west north of the Forth. Not sure I've ever seen that before! 

[Hawesy]

My Met forecast captures the excitement of a coastal East Neuk winter and the ‘nearby’ warning rubs my face in it..  

Drizzle is on, 2.6c.

[LomondSnowstorm]

The most recent ICON is quite satisfying, if maybe not as snowy for high ground from the frontal stuff - the low splits and the westernmost one just sort of decays:

and then the floodgates open:

The GFS is very consistent again in bringing the beast in without too much damage:

The milder air has a couple of shots at us but always seems to stall just before it can break through into the central belt properly:

 

To be fair to all areas something like the GFS is probably best because the northeast takes a pounding on Thursday from the low, and we can live with a bit of potential slush before the easterly comes in further south.

[Sceptical]

Met office 9pm update shows significant snow upgrades for parts of Grampian this week. Amber warnings for Scotland incoming me thinks.

Temperature has fallen further, currently minus 8.

 

 

Edited February 1, 2021 by Sceptical

[Mr Frost]

@edo I am just here for everyone’s snow pictures! 

@Hairy Celt @LomondSnowstorm Yes and quite incredible indeed - feel bad for the presenters! They obviously know they are working off old information!

Few January stats! Mean temperature, rainfall amount and sunshine duration against the 1981-2010 anomaly/average.

 

That is a big below average month for us!

 

Couple of highlights from the latest ECM monthly temperature (T2m) anomalies.

08/02 to 14/02

 

01/03 to 07/03

Cold start to Meteorological Spring has been showing up for a couple of weeks now. 

[LomondSnowstorm]

Approximately 40m difference in altitude (I guess more/less depending on where exactly they pick), pretty big difference in outcomes. It's not necessarily unreasonable but I don't think it'll be as clear cut as 3 days of snow there, 3 days of sleet here for example. I suppose in 2012/13 we did have a couple of events like that where really marginal altitude changes had massive differences in outcomes, with a strong easterly wind too, but I do think the situation is a bit more dynamic and things like precipitation intensity will make a bigger difference.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

6 minutes ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

Approximately 40m difference in altitude (I guess more/less depending on where exactly they pick), pretty big difference in outcomes. It's not necessarily unreasonable but I don't think it'll be as clear cut as 3 days of snow there, 3 days of sleet here for example. I suppose in 2012/13 we did have a couple of events like that where really marginal altitude changes had massive differences in outcomes, with a strong easterly wind too, but I do think the situation is a bit more dynamic and things like precipitation intensity will make a bigger difference.

the bookmarked How the F**K ?

GEFS MEAN with the North Sea going mental snow machine 

Edited February 1, 2021 by Kirkcaldy Weather

[Snowandrocks]

2 hours ago, Zerouali lives said:

Somewhere like Braemar (330m) could be buried by next Wednesday - probably a foot or so in the next 2 or 3 days then it normally does well in an unstable ENE flow for showers feeding right through the Dee valley...

Yep, looking interesting. Also worth remembering that some higher parts of Aberdeenshire already have 1m+ of lying snow! 

[Hairy Celt]

Specially installed MetO app just now to see what delights it will offer this week. Wish I hadn't bothered with the wankshitty thing. Dry other than a day of sleet on Friday. dog biscuits.

-4C out now and little wind. This is as good as it gets, eh?

Dog biscuits indeed. What about earwax and toenail clippings?

Edited February 1, 2021 by Hairy Celt