Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?

[Decemberof2010]

Now to my untrained eye the GFS 6z and 12z have some slight differences out in FI

 

 

And the GFSP gets sent to his room with no tea

 

Edited January 10, 2021 by Decemberof2010

[Cloud 10]

GFS para.has gone from hero to zero

 

The GEM meanwhile ends up rather spiffing.

 

[Ice Day]

Another stunning run, this time the Op comes up trumps.  The Control is showing good support at 174

   

The GFSP has *hopefully* gone off on one.  

Whilst anything could happen at the moment, I doubt the Para has nailed it this time, it's just a mess.  Knowing our luck, it's got it spot on!!!

[sheikhy]

Really good 12zs so far apart from the crappy para which really is rubbish regardless of the upgrade on it!!no consistency what so ever!!!stick with the op is my advice and you wil save yourself from getting a lot of white hair!!!

[Allseasons-Si]

You can see the trough dropping down from the NW on the mean at 180

[winterof79]

12 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The UKMO is awful to be honest - miles apart from the GFS!

Could you please add a little meat to the bones for us?

Cheers

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Cloud 10 said:

GFS para.has gone from hero to zero

 

The GEM meanwhile ends up rather spiffing.

 

Mutton dressed as lamb sadly . It looks great on a NH level but is akin to making a rubbish dinner out of 5 star ingredients . You need low pressure to the east or se , stuck over the UK isn’t good .

[dragan]

so latest gfs shows a very potently cold and snowy 4/5 day spell , after that, heights diminish to the north west, which allows the more common south westerly regime to kick in.

[Radiating Dendrite]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Really good 12zs so far apart from the crappy para which really is rubbish regardless of the upgrade on it!!no consistency what so ever!!!stick with the op is my advice and you wil save yourself from getting a lot of white hair!!!

It was the star of the show 4 hours ago with its 127 layers.

It could have picked up a new trend..... who knows. 

[Roger J Smith]

I had a look at temperature analogues from CET and found among those 1881, in fact the mean temperature now is a bit lower than it was on the 10th of that famous cold/snow month (1.2) ... blizzards hit the southern counties in a very similar looking evolution around the 16th to 20th of that month and severe cold followed. 

Another interesting factoid is that the only January which ever managed a 2 deg CET increase after the 10th before dropping to a lower end point was 1947 (2.6 to 4.6 to 2.2). Those numbers are all higher than this month's potential numbers, but the severe cold did not start until the 22nd and it did get very mild (probably milder than we'll see mid-week) for a few days after quite a cold start.

I like to see cases where unusual synoptics on model runs have actually happened in the past, shows that nature can accommodate them. 

If I had to guess how this particular evolution might actually work out instead of what's shown, it would be a faster drop in the jet stream and for the channel low scenario to push more into northern France but with less slack flow over Britain, in other words getting the full extent of severe cold into the UK faster. It would mean the main mechanism for snowfall would have to be sea effect rather than synoptic however. 

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Could you please add a little meat to the bones for us?

Cheers

Ukmo is fine... It would just ridge a little further west up Greenland than the gem does. 

[Tim Bland]

GEM has a fair bit of snow for the north east later this week...

[winterfreak]

This is fascinating watching even though I’m a complete novice in regards to how everything is interlinked and a small change downstream can have a massive effect later on. It’s frustrating to see how the models flip flop about, one minute they run with epic cold only to drop it later on. It’s obviously very difficult getting any sort of consensus between the bigger models. Reminds me of 2010 this does. I hope so much the charts that are toying with the potentially epic snowy utopia deliver. I think as a nation we could do with something to take our minds off the horrendous situation we are in with Covid. Was great today on our dog walk watching children play in the icy puddles and have fun. They could do with it lord knows. Thanks to all of you guys with your take on things. Great, if not endlessly frustrating, fun 

[Cloud 10]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Mutton dressed as lamb sadly . It looks great on a NH level but is akin to making a rubbish dinner out of 5 star ingredients . You need low pressure to the east or se , stuck over the UK isn’t good .

 

Well,better than mutton dressed as mutton (para)

 

 

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

I had a look at temperature analogues from CET and found among those 1881, in fact the mean temperature now is a bit lower than it was on the 10th of that famous cold/snow month (1.2) ... blizzards hit the southern counties in a very similar looking evolution around the 16th to 20th of that month and severe cold followed. 

Another interesting factoid is that the only January which ever managed a 2 deg CET increase after the 10th before dropping to a lower end point was 1947 (2.6 to 4.6 to 2.2). Those numbers are all higher than this month's potential numbers, but the severe cold did not start until the 22nd and it did get very mild (probably milder than we'll see mid-week) for a few days after quite a cold start.

I like to see cases where unusual synoptics on model runs have actually happened in the past, shows that nature can accommodate them. 

If I had to guess how this particular evolution might actually work out instead of what's shown, it would be a faster drop in the jet stream and for the channel low scenario to push more into northern France but with less slack flow over Britain, in other words getting the full extent of severe cold into the UK faster. It would mean the main mechanism for snowfall would have to be sea effect rather than synoptic however. 

GFSp had the low over north France earlier. Leaving most of England cold and dry. I hope this doesn’t happen ..but my gut tells me it’s quite likely 

[winterof79]

4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Ukmo is fine... It would just ridge a little further west up Greenland than the gem does. 

Thanks 

[Malcolm Edwards]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

GFSp had the low over north France earlier. Leaving most of England cold and dry. I hope this doesn’t happen ..but my gut tells me it’s quite likely 

Although for a change cornwall gets in on the action. Unlikely to verify of course lol. 

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

 

Well,better than mutton dressed as mutton (para)

 

 

That’s brilliant ! Really made me laugh .  

[Cold Winter Night]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Mutton dressed as lamb sadly . It looks great on a NH level but is akin to making a rubbish dinner out of 5 star ingredients . You need low pressure to the east or se , stuck over the UK isn’t good .

Exactly. It would be nice if there was a bit of an extension of the Greenland High towards Scandinavia, forcing the core of the low pressure to move towards Central Europe.
I expected the Scandi High to develop more today, but I guess I was wrong.

[Windysun1]

7 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

I had a look at temperature analogues from CET and found among those 1881, in fact the mean temperature now is a bit lower than it was on the 10th of that famous cold/snow month (1.2) ... blizzards hit the southern counties in a very similar looking evolution around the 16th to 20th of that month and severe cold followed. 

Another interesting factoid is that the only January which ever managed a 2 deg CET increase after the 10th before dropping to a lower end point was 1947 (2.6 to 4.6 to 2.2). Those numbers are all higher than this month's potential numbers, but the severe cold did not start until the 22nd and it did get very mild (probably milder than we'll see mid-week) for a few days after quite a cold start.

I like to see cases where unusual synoptics on model runs have actually happened in the past, shows that nature can accommodate them. 

If I had to guess how this particular evolution might actually work out instead of what's shown, it would be a faster drop in the jet stream and for the channel low scenario to push more into northern France but with less slack flow over Britain, in other words getting the full extent of severe cold into the UK faster. It would mean the main mechanism for snowfall would have to be sea effect rather than synoptic however. 

These comments from Roger are worth noting. Excellent.

[Jason M]

GFSP isn't buying it and goes zonal again. Still lots of uncertainty and nothing is nailed on.

The biggest risk looking at the output now is our old friend the west based -NAO. The GEFS are sniffing this out around 192 hours.

Much to be decided though and in a sense I'm actually pleased that we are not seeing the perfect charts at present because the odds of them making it from days 9/10/11 plus to day 1 are tiny.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GFSp had the low over north France earlier. Leaving most of England cold and dry. I hope this doesn’t happen ..but my gut tells me it’s quite likely 

March 11th 2013 carbon copy there! What a painful event that was, despite lots of snow showers. The Channel Islands, N France and Benelux got a clobbering. Nearly 2ft of snow in them places, whilst Kent along to Pompey got a sugar coating and watching the blizzard just offshore!! 

[Battleground Snow]

The @feb1991blizzard stonkers are beginning to grow.

P15 please

 

Edited January 10, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[georgiedre]

17 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

I had a look at temperature analogues from CET and found among those 1881, in fact the mean temperature now is a bit lower than it was on the 10th of that famous cold/snow month (1.2) ... blizzards hit the southern counties in a very similar looking evolution around the 16th to 20th of that month and severe cold followed. 

Another interesting factoid is that the only January which ever managed a 2 deg CET increase after the 10th before dropping to a lower end point was 1947 (2.6 to 4.6 to 2.2). Those numbers are all higher than this month's potential numbers, but the severe cold did not start until the 22nd and it did get very mild (probably milder than we'll see mid-week) for a few days after quite a cold start.

I like to see cases where unusual synoptics on model runs have actually happened in the past, shows that nature can accommodate them. 

If I had to guess how this particular evolution might actually work out instead of what's shown, it would be a faster drop in the jet stream and for the channel low scenario to push more into northern France but with less slack flow over Britain, in other words getting the full extent of severe cold into the UK faster. It would mean the main mechanism for snowfall would have to be sea effect rather than synoptic however. 

Showers or more persistent snow on coasts facing north or north east I imagine 

[XtremeUKWeather]

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