Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?

[Frostbite1980]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

From a southerners perspective, yes, 

Sorry but north or south that is an awful 240 chart from the ECM I'm sure it will not end up like that but compared to other output that is the worst chart yet

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Vikos said:

It’s getting ridiculous in here right now, just over one for some not so favourable run, disregarding the overall patterns we have. Childish behaviour, I’m sorry to say...

Mate its like this all the time youll get used to it.

Hopefully people know enough to know there will always be flips in am atmospheric state of big flux.

The emsembles are very good and getting better and the last run of the EPS excellent

Its just a watching brief people on to tomorrows run to try get some consensus around 144/168

[Cold Winter Night]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

No > it is terrible.

Flat as a witches TiT

Between 144 and 168 that round shaped low over Labrador just doesn't get the WAA going, and as a result the Atlantic/Greenland High fails to amplify and misses the connection to the Arctic High.

[Froze were the Days]

8 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

ECM to me isn't terrible? Mid Atlantic high setting up in a position favourable for continued bouts of amplification.

For continued false promises?...great model watching but a contingent will feel this is all it is, maybe the last week in January? 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The ECM is a shocker..no question,but I must admit I'm surprised at the over reaction to it... I've got a good feeling it will be an outlier come the mean..no point in getting the Blood Pressure elevated over this op run..give it an hour and I'm sure we will have better news.

Edited January 10, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

From a southerners perspective, yes, 

It’s colder in kent than Northern England at the end? 

[Djdazzle]

The ECM looked like it was heading the same way as GFS at 96. That’s a good sign for now surely?

[Penicuikblizzard]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

ECM isn't brilliant, and it can't be discounted, however 2 things imo

1) Let's see the ensemble

2) GFS is usually the preferred model in terms of Greenland amplification

ECM could also be a trend

[Radiating Dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Vikos said:

It’s getting ridiculous in here right now, just over one for some not so favourable run, disregarding the overall patterns we have. Childish behaviour, I’m sorry to say...

In all fairness some of us have not seen snow for over 3 years. I'm looking for something memorable, not some 2c toppler slush fest.

ECM would previously over amplify - have they tweaked the model to dial this out??

[Battleground Snow]

4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

ECM is relatively poor but bear in mind there were 6 clusters in this morning’s eps at day 7.  Take anything after day 5 with a shed load of salt.

You can let us know its an outlier in 30 mins 

[Tim Bland]

Just now, MATTWOLVES said:

The ECM is a shocker..no question,but I must admit I'm surprised at the over reaction to it... I've got a food feeling it will be an outlier come the mean..no point in getting the Blood Pressure elevated over this op run..give it an hour and I'm sure we will have better news.

I think it’s 2 consecutive ECM runs and the latest Para that have set the nerves off, if ECM doesn’t look better in the morning we are on Shakey ground ...

[Froze were the Days]

5 minutes ago, MJB said:

Shocking ECM if we are honest - roll on GFS 18z

Roll on the pub run over the ECM - never thought I'd hear that!

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

It’s colder in kent than Northern England at the end? 

Aye but don't forget altitude & the previous few days. 

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

ECM could also be a trend

Yes I agree, which is why I stated it shouldn't be disregarded. The amplification & cold isn't 100% either. 

[ICE COLD]

The mean on the ECM this morning was down to -6 in London . The op has + 1 at the end  there wasn’t even an ensemble member that went near +1 850s on the graph. It better be a big fat outlier . 

[Updated_Weather]

Tweet from Matt H regarding the two latest runs including ECM - he has said he thinks GFS has this more right and ECM will flip... eventually! Bold statement!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Quite a sobering run from the ECM. But as we all know at the moment, the SSW is playing havoc with the models at the minute. 

First, let’s see how we do in getting that surface continental cold and battleground scenario out of the way, because that may well surprise a few of us. 

[NewEra21]

Let's be fair ECM hasn't been great of late, it was poor on picking up the Christmas/New Year cold spell.

I'm not saying the ECM is wrong, but we have GFS and multiple other models showing much better than what the ECM is currently showing.

Of course the ECM could be leading the way, but I'm not too bothered about it yet. As I'm pretty sure no model currently has the correct outcome yet whatever they're showing. 

Edited January 10, 2021 by NewEra21

[Updated_Weather]

2 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

ECM could also be a trend

Unlikely imo. It’s like every other model vs ECM.

[Scott Ingham]

7 minutes ago, mulzy said:

ECM is relatively poor but bear in mind there were 6 clusters in this morning’s eps at day 7.  Take anything after day 5 with a shed load of salt.

This post should permanently be at the front of your mind evertime a run comes out. Whether its good or bad

[Tim Bland]

6 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

ECM isn't brilliant, and it can't be discounted, however 2 things imo

1) Let's see the ensemble

2) GFS is usually the preferred model in terms of Greenland amplification

Re point 2 - have you seen the verification stats for the GFS & GFSp ?   Have you viewed the 12z GFSp?

[Anthony Burden]

Very uninspiring ECM 12z tonight with that scenario not a lot to look 

forward to.Let’s hope it’s on the road with a dead end and no where to go.

 

[Frostbite1980]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Aye but don't forget altitude & the previous few days. 

I really respect your info but I'm sorry unless you live up the very top of a mountain the 240 ECM would produce nothing but rain and trying to make out its an OK chart seems to me like clutching at very long straws 

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Tweet from Matt H regarding the two latest runs including ECM - he has said he thinks GFS has this more right and ECM will flip... eventually! Bold statement!

We saw the exact same happen around Xmas. It's a strong possibility. 

> Statement of a model bias, or any other statement interpreting the NWP like this does not imply 100% assurance to the interpretation made. Some I think get carried away in that regard following statements of interpretations on here as having no leeway..

Edited January 10, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, mulzy said:

ECM is relatively poor but bear in mind there were 6 clusters in this morning’s eps at day 7.  Take anything after day 5 with a shed load of salt.

The ec op was in cluster three earlier and it looks like it’s still in that same cluster at day 10 on the 12z. We want to make sure that cluster hasn’t grown ! 

the WAA off the esb at day 6/7 is the issue.  Last time we had this, gfs was right and ecm was wrong. But gfs was rock solid, run after run and that’s not the case this time ........