Model output discussion 24/01/21

[KTtom]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

the GEFS scream battlegrounds galore to me but not of the slushy type, lots of Easterlies in also although some with not great uppers admittedly

I was just assuming ukmo and gfs ops were the ops because they were more accurate...dont check the ens to be honest as due to the amount ofruns and the wild vatiety you can usually find what you want to see somewhere... plus, if you check ops, ens, lesser models etc etc you end up spending your life on here and going mad...!!

[KTtom]

17 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Every single 0z gfs run is meh..  

And every single morning I get greeted with the same down beat mood on hear its boring 

Exactly the point, and pleased you agree, why are the morning runs always crud!? ... 

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, KTtom said:

I was just assuming ukmo and gfs ops were the ops because they were more accurate...dont check the ens to be honest as due to the amount ofruns and the wild vatiety you can usually find what you want to see somewhere... plus, if you check ops, ens, lesser models etc etc you end up spending your life on here and going mad...!!

TBH i dont think we were ever looking at sunday as nirvana - just a starter before the main course, more like 5th - 7th onwards, ops are just as likely to flip about with shortwave energy placement at that range so you need a bigger sample size.

[KTtom]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

TBH i dont think we were ever looking at sunday as nirvana - just a starter before the main course, more like 5th - 7th onwards, ops are just as likely to flip about with shortwave energy placement at that range so you need a bigger sample size.

Thanks for the non emotional reply to a genuine question, rare and much appreciated

[sheikhy]

!!!charts still look a little better between 72 and 120 hours though!!!hopefully something to build on for the rest of the day!!

[DavidS]

Weak heights building to the north of the UK towards the end of the ECM. The central Med looks warm.

 

[DavidS]

The GFS 00z looks like it was bouncing around the mean to me. Not v mild or v cold. Plenty of rain though.

Hipefully, it will find its way back to yesterday’s 12 and 18z efforts.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Feb just said GEFS look good..

Fingers crossed the op is rogue..

Maybe the nirvana runs yesterday were the rogues?

 

BFTP

[mountain shadow]

Poor overnight runs again. Flooding looks certain to be an issue.

Still some transient snow for some as fronts push in and the Scottish mountains will be buried.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Maybe the nirvana runs yesterday were the rogues?

 

BFTP

Its possible of course.

Personally EC is sniffing round those wedges to our North 

Mjo where art thou?

[chris55]

UKMO slides Sunday/Mondays Low.....If it ends up further south then parts of England/Wales could be at risk of some snow. (albeit transient for now.) 

GFS ensembles showing the cooling trend into February, with some cold runs in there. Lots of spread, still a way to go till we get some clarity.

 

[carinthian]

19 hours ago, carinthian said:

Just out of interest the wedge of cold Arctic air is now locked over Torshavn for a least 4 to 5 days  going by at the latest models. The picture is from the airport and temp is currently -5c with -10c 850mb level temps getting established as shown from the last sounding for the location with a solid Arctic profile way up past 500mb level. Longer term we need to see this set up consolidate and force some undercut into the British Isles. Still out to 96 hours remains up for grabs according to the team over here but current  operational runs apart from GEM not in favour as yet !

C

Nice chart from UKMO  with the Iceland ridge still holding the block of cold air to the north and east ( re above post ) Will it be strong enough to maintain and force  the under cut of the lows over the British Isles ? Most models think not at this stage but there remains plenty of doubt from Sunday onwards .

C

[northwestsnow]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

Poor overnight runs again. Flooding looks certain to be an issue.

Still some transient snow for some as fronts push in and the Scottish mountains will be buried.

All roads leading to cold  the second week of Feb...?

I was hoping first week but its proving a real toil getting  heights to stick to our North.

As you say, lots of rain for the North West in particular, but potentially lots of snow Scotland, North Pennines etc...

We are so close to a cold spell, hopefully the MJO can help, its been either stuck in COD or phase 3/4 for like ever!

 

[winterof79]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

Have you just looked at the GFS and UKMO ops though or all the guidance?, rest is good, GEFS are a stonker.

 

I'm not on your page 

[legritter]

Hi gang ,ecm this morning showing higher pressure at around 192hrs gradually appearing to our far north .just hope this is what uk met were mentioning yesterday .cant post charts at  the moment as I'm cooking sausages ready for ME  Baps , keep the faith gang and keep the good posts coming ,cheers . 

[Jordan S]

Morning..

Frontal systems slowing down over northern England into some of Scotland the next couple of days.. 

one for this evening and tonight..

with snow likely for the pennines for example overnight into tomorrow also southern and central parts of Scotland seeing some too, it will likely be largely rain and sleet for lower levels of northern England.

Arpege..

Then the next frontal system quickly follows this one tomorrow night although looks to be mostly rain for northern England, snow lighter continues for Scotland during early friday in places mainly on higher ground but moving away through the day.. 10-15cm of snow is possible on higher ground in these areas and perhaps locally around 20cm..

20-30mm of rain accumulating quite widely and upto 40-70mm locally in wales northwest England perhaps northern Ireland.

on Saturday a low pressure system is shown tracking close to or over southern and southwestern parts of England, rain looks to be heavy from this low although snow is looking unlikely, what the gfs currently shows is quite a likely outcome although any further north and there will be more of a snow risk however its likely to be mostly rain, drier further north and cold this moving south behind this low.

Then Sunday high pressure sat close to or just over the uk cold air in place another low pressure system then moves into this, the potential for snow before most likely turning to rain for most if not all as milder air looks like spreading across.. it may take a while, possibly well into Monday with the rain perhaps turning lighter and patchier with part of the rain band going into europe.

Freezing level gfs Friday to Monday..

Tuesday and Wednesday is looking milder for most although cold air looks to remain close to Scotland still so it could stay quite cold here further south wet at times and windy. Later next week looks to remain similar unlikely to become particularly mild.

Edited January 27, 2021 by jordan smith

[winterof79]

Most graphics shifted snow further north today. Thursdays a bust for most and unfortunately the weekend looks too marginal. Sounds familiar doesn't it? 

Still apparently it's all happening around the 5th Feb..... Funny though I don't see ANY proof on the ensembles or output. 

Edited January 27, 2021 by winterof79

[IDO]

Getting those GH and Scandi Highs at d10+ almost perfect synoptic-wise, you simply know from past experience that the models have seen a new trend and are overplaying it and will slowly downgrade from that point. We saw this as recently as those GH charts modelled for a few days.

Looking from IMBY the gefs up until d8:

 

A 25% chance of snow on Saturday but over wise distinctly average. The mean from there ^^^ is just below average for 850s with the cluster of colder runs not quite matched by a cluster of milder alternatives. Nothing has really changed, a repeating cycle looks the best call for the moment.

I mentioned before about those wedges in FI, they will come and go, move around in the forecasts and getting ones like the 12z from yesterday to repeat itself more than a couple of times has from experience is a rarity. 

The mean at d8-16 indicates a vortex setting up to our NW and the Asian sister, migrating to Siberia:

I do not expect a classic zonal onslaught, but I would call a steady slower flow of LP systems moving with the jet out of our NW. A great undercut synoptic therefore remains, but for such synchronicity to play out we need the wedges to fall perfectly as there still remains no coherent signal for an Atlantic sympathetic ridge in response to the modelled upstream MJO forcing. We need to see some cold pattern develop soon to avoid the conclusion we are stuck in a rut?

[ICE COLD]

ECM mean T240 . There’s are heights building to the north .

[winterof79]

Hardly inspiring mean at 168z = wet..... 

[Sky Full]

According to the GFS this morning, the Jetstream continues to take a more southerly route over the next 10 to 14 days than has been the case in UK mid-winters of recent years.  As long as this is the case there is an increased chance of colder conditions reoccurring....

27/01 - 04/02.                                              04/02 - 12/02

    

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Hardly inspiring mean at 168z = wet..... 

Your looking too early mate . The ECM goes out to the 6th and heights are starting to rise to the north in-line with when the meto are mentioning high pressure to the north . Down we slide bang on que 

[ICE COLD]

Just to add I know the gfs op runs where bringing  in the cold in earlier time frames yesterday pm runs but probably just a timing issue ? I’ll be positive while the met are on board . 

[feb1991blizzard]

23 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Most graphics shifted snow further north today. Thursdays a bust for most and unfortunately the weekend looks too marginal. Sounds familiar doesn't it? 

Still apparently it's all happening around the 5th Feb..... Funny though I don't see ANY proof on the ensembles or output. 

You cannot definitively prove anything will happen at that range but here is some evidence of even earlier - a tonking slap bang over Huddersfield.

[Man With Beard]

Those chasing a Scandi High - a little suggestion - rather than use the GFS op as your guide, use the ensemble means. Look for a surface high pressure, compare run to run, and see if it grows. This worked like clockwork in Feb 2018. This morning's 00Z - a bit more than a hint at D12: