Model output discussion 24/01/21

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You cannot definitively prove anything will happen at that range but here is some evidence of even earlier - a tonking slap bang over Huddersfield.

And we know how reliable they have been. Where's your evidence of these stonking gefs

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

And we know how reliable they have been. Where's your evidence of these stonking gefs

There some.

[Anthony Burden]

The charts showing a lively Atlantic for the next 9 or 10 days,mild or cold depending on tracks

of low pressure,the south looks intermittent spells while the north could remain on the cold side.

Still waiting patiently for a pressure rise hopefully to the north.

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

14 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

And we know how reliable they have been. Where's your evidence of these stonking gefs

you've already posted them, mean battlegrounds and trough disruption at 280, mean scandi high at 200+ is good for ens, majority cluster below-5 at nearly D10 with about 6 or 7 members at some point hitting -10

Edited January 27, 2021 by Paul

[nick sussex]

We seem to have hit the buffers this morning after last nights good trends.

The outputs aren’t bad but we saw the Ritz and were just about to book in only to be told that we’re back to the Premier Inn !

Hopefully we don’t get downgraded further to a sleazy B and B unless that is you like sleaze !

Anyway I think it’s best to keep an open mind and not draw concrete conclusions from this mornings outputs . Still a good chance that some blocking will set up to the north or ne because of where the models want to place the PV , this type of alignment downstream normally correlates with that blocking .

Edited January 27, 2021 by nick sussex

[sebastiaan1973]

At day 10-15 there is a cluster of easterly winds. E.g. the Control.

 

Edited January 27, 2021 by sebastiaan1973

[sebastiaan1973]

The control at the long range

[Nick F]

Fairly encouraging 8-13 day 500mb mean from 00Z EPS this morning with ridging over Iceland / GIN corridor, this mirrors well yesterday's CPC 8-14 day 500mb chart:

The only concern is +ve heights / blocking  is too far north allowing Atlantic lows under and moving east across the UK, but if we get ridging developing over NW Atlantic and less -ve heights like next 5 days here - then less cyclogenesis developing out west will help allow low pressure stay S and SE of the UK.

But with the MJO moving into phase 7, we should see its lag effects on the upper patterns around 10 days after over the Atlantic /Europe - which combining with recent warming from the SSW trickling down, should hopefully trigger some high latitude blocking in early February which we hope will work in our favour.

[Paul]

Can we stop the bickering in here please. 

[SLEETY]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

Have you just looked at the GFS and UKMO ops though or all the guidance?, rest is good, GEFS are a stonker.

 

Just seen them,coldest of the season and look how many go below the magical minus 10 line!feel a lot more confident of seeing a proper cold spell develop as we go into Feb and we have the MET onboard too

Edited January 27, 2021 by SLEETY

[rug]

1 hour ago, chris55 said:

UKMO slides Sunday/Mondays Low.....If it ends up further south then parts of England/Wales could be at risk of some snow. (albeit transient for now.) 

GFS ensembles showing the cooling trend into February, with some cold runs in there. Lots of spread, still a way to go till we get some clarity.

 

Wow, some very cold runs in there! Think Feb could be full of possibilities.

[sebastiaan1973]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Fairly encouraging 8-13 day 500mb mean from 00Z EPS this morning with ridging over Iceland / GIN corridor, this mirrors well yesterday's CPC 8-14 day 500mb chart:

The only concern is +ve heights / blocking  is too far north allowing Atlantic lows under and moving east across the UK, but if we get ridging developing over NW Atlantic and less -ve heights like next 5 days here - then less cyclogenesis developing out west will help allow low pressure stay S and SE of the UK.

But with the MJO moving into phase 7, we should see its lag effects on the upper patterns around 10 days after over the Atlantic /Europe - which combining with recent warming from the SSW trickling down, should hopefully trigger some high latitude blocking in early February which we hope will work in our favour.

It seems to me, the same pattern we saw earlier, to far to the west/ north to deliver significant cold to all of us. Still, time to improve. Would love to see pressure rising above Scandinavia. 

 

 

[mb018538]

Frustrating that the ejection of the Atlantic/UK trough to the east is just taking longer than anticipated. No big worry if it eventually clears away, but the sooner it goes, the better! We still have a good 3-4 weeks of peak winter left. Plenty of time to get something special in this not so normal winter!



That first cluster looks a belter there.
 

[Griff]

27 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Frustrating that the ejection of the Atlantic/UK trough to the east is just taking longer than anticipated. No big worry if it eventually clears away, but the sooner it goes, the better! We still have a good 3-4 weeks of peak winter left. Plenty of time to get something special in this not so normal winter!



That first cluster looks a belter there.
 

Indeed, particularly when you consider how things seem to have changed for the better already in a short period. 

Of the posts that I can read, some really excellent, balanced and thoughtful contributions this morning. A fascinating winter remains, no guarantees but great to watch at least. Much appreciated

Edited January 27, 2021 by Paul

[bluearmy]

No time for anything in detail but beyond the first week of feb could well be  more than interesting for coldies ......

[fromey]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No time for anything in detail but beyond the first week of feb could well be  more than interesting for coldies ......

You tease

[sheikhy]

Latest icon at 108 hours disrupts more and further west!!sundays snow wont reach us at this rate

[winterof79]

Mean for London says nothing cold on the horizon ,cool not cold -5

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Latest icon at 108 hours disrupts more and further west!!sundays snow wont reach us at this rate

Saturday could deliver on the northern edge though

[sheikhy]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Saturday could deliver on the northern edge though

Its weird how sundays snow is goin further and further west but saturdays further north!!dont see that often

[Battleground Snow]

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Latest icon at 108 hours disrupts more and further west!!sundays snow wont reach us at this rate

I'm not sure what it is about the 00z runs always looking not as good, maybe it's psychological?

Big difference in 850mb temps on icon v 00z

 

Edited January 27, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Tim Bland]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Its weird how sundays snow is goin further and further west but saturdays further north!!dont see that often

I think it’s because less forcing from the front to our west allows saturdays front to edge in further. Lots be resolved though. It will keep shifting run to run ...

[sheikhy]

9 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

I'm not sure what it is about the 00z runs always looking not as good, maybe it's psychological?

Big difference in 850mb temps on icon v 00z

 

I dont think its is psychological!!i think the the 00zs are genuinely crap lol!!what dont help is that pointless 18z pub run that gets everyones hopes up each and every time!!for everyones mental well being i think the pub run should be scrapped

[Battleground Snow]

I think we are going to have a repeat of last weekend @sheikhy with, north a bit, south a bit, just right!

 

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

I think we are going to have a repeat of last weekend @sheikhy with, north a bit, south a bit, just right!

 

Yeh here we go again!!!my head is gona explode!!latest gfs has the low ever so slightly further north as well at 54 hours!!!