Model output discussion 24/01/21

[Battleground Snow]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Yeh here we go again!!!my head is gona explode!!latest gfs has the low ever so slightly further north as well at 54 hours!!!

GFS has snow too now, alot of rain to start off with, but it's probably playing catch up again like last week.

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Yeh here we go again!!!my head is gona explode!!latest gfs has the low ever so slightly further north as well at 54 hours!!!

Yes, Saturday afternoon starting to look very interesting for many now...

[ALL ABOARD]

ECM with snow for part of Wales, the Midlands and South West England on Sunday 

See attached mean below as well

GFS, however more of rain to snow event as the low slides.   

Place your bets 

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Yes, Saturday afternoon starting to look very interesting for many now...

Looks exactly like last sunday for the midlands but on a saturday this time which is even better❄

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, ALL ABOARD said:

ECM with snow for part of Wales, the Midlands and South West England on Sunday 

See attached mean below as well

GFS, however more of rain to snow event as the low slides.   

Place your bets 

The para is much better with less rain to start off with, I'd hazard a guess the GFS op is being too progressive with front and the colder air has more influence

[Kentspur]

2 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

ECM with snow for part of Wales, the Midlands and South West England on Sunday 

See attached mean below as well

GFS, however more of rain to snow event as the low slides.   

Place your bets 

So basically the same areas that have already had snow at the weekend, you couldn't make it up

[Man With Beard]

3 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

ECM with snow for part of Wales, the Midlands and South West England on Sunday 

See attached mean below as well

GFS, however more of rain to snow event as the low slides.   

Place your bets 

Have you got a link to this chart? Very useful!

[frosty ground]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Yes, Saturday afternoon starting to look very interesting for many now...

That’s probably only representative of high ground right like you said yesterday for snow chances in the north?

[Kentspur]

How about some rain turning to heavy snow for the south and SE Saturday evening courtesy of latest Icon run

[georgiedre]

4 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Have you got a link to this chart? Very useful!

Matt Hugo posted this on twitter.  Don't know if it's the same image

[I remember Atlantic 252]

10 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Looks exactly like last sunday for the midlands but on a saturday this time which is even better❄

Saturday's snow good on GFS, agree with Sunday though, just SW event I feel

[Drifter]

57 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Mean for London says nothing cold on the horizon ,cool not cold -5

Did someone pee on your cornflakes this morning or something

I think we need to just assume for some reason the 00z runs are poor at the moment. 

[Battleground Snow]

We really need this area marked to hold its own against the lows, it's so weak on the para, but it's the gateway to the great charts we seen yesterday.

Edit at 186, it's so close

 

Edited January 27, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, Drifter said:

Did someone pee on your cornflakes this morning or something

I think we need to just assume for some reason the 00z runs are poor at the moment. 

Yes and they are in big trouble luckily I've got a spare bowl.

[Ice Day]

Well that Para at 186 has us back on track with a building high over Iceland

The 6z not as good at the same time - but not terrible by any means

[Battleground Snow]

Beast is going to get close to arriving here on the para.. going to be nail biting watching the ebb and flow on the upcoming runs with that flimsy Icelandic high 

 

[MJB]

Para is starting to look good

[MJB]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Beast is going to get close to arriving here on the para.. going to be nail biting watching the ebb and flow on the upcoming runs with that flimsy Icelandic high 

 

Could well be a blink and you miss it job 

[carinthian]

2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Nice chart from UKMO  with the Iceland ridge still holding the block of cold air to the north and east ( re above post ) Will it be strong enough to maintain and force  the under cut of the lows over the British Isles ? Most models think not at this stage but there remains plenty of doubt from Sunday onwards .

C

Ah Sunday in the UK . A bit of an update on this one from the team. There view continues in the opinion of a cross roads for you guys. A real hard one to get any forecast right. The block of cold air has a solid hold over the NE by Sunday morning and doubt remains to see how far the Atlantic system makes in- roads from the west . Snow to rain transfer, stalling snow frontal zone, or none of these. Heck its complicated for you guys. Big doubts remain in the out puts period (96-120T) . If its any use the snow computer still fags up some snow (  up to10cm ) Friday/ night into Saturday for Southern Parts of higher ground in the North of England and North Wales also some convective snow for NE England for a time early Saturday ( possibly associated with a transient pool of colder air moving down the North Sea. The out parameter results just cover as far SW as Wales and flags up some snow on the mountains by the end of Sunday but seems to show limited progress . Read what you may into that.

C

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

Could well be a blink and you miss it job 

It should sustain for a while as the high will slowly creep south.

 

[MJB]

The OP brings snow in across the West 

[Derbyshire Snow]

Good Morning all

I hope Mods do not mind this rarish post from me, but I  will give a brief summary of the present offerings at the end 

I usually only post when prolonged severe cold weather is very likely and that hasnt happened again this winter. I was born in the 50`s and seen years when each morning waking up to fresh snow on top of existing snow, often drifting well over hedges. These conditions were always under battleground conditions when you have an intense high pressure over Scandinavia in to Siberia and fronts from the Atlantic finding it impossible to reach any further than the British Isles dropping copious amounts of snow,  and it happened throughout the winter , not just in late Winter/ early Spring.. South west England , often badly hit, areas were often cut off for weeks in the worst winters. Eventually this  was usually followed by cold and sometimes bitterly cold easterly winds. There was sometimes a little melt during the day but the severe frosts over the snowy landscapes resulted in incredibly long icicles from the roof gutters. We used to have to knock them off, as they were so dangerous. When did you last see that. Ok , this didnt happen every year, but in the modern winters ( last 30 years) its extremely rare to  see any prolonged spells as bad as  that. One noticeable exception was December 2010 when a large area of extremely colder air hit us directly from  the North Pole but that was gone by beginning of January. This was not a severe Siberian Easterly and it did not reoccur that winter, we need that intense cold from the East if you require a long cold spell as i would like to see again too. The climate is undergoing change... i am unsure what the future holds as regards the weather. Unfortunately we are surrounded by water and its warming up a little each year, the shortest track of water is to our east and thats where the severity we long for has to be from there. Its been lovely to have a colder than usual winter and its been prolonged cold, but would you call it severe. The snow has been lovely to see, thick and sometimes blizzard like for some, but did we all see it.... and those that had it, did it stay deep for long. In a blink of an eye, weatherwise its gone.

The take on the synoptics as now, looking at the models, and my long fascination with the weather.

As most of the winter, the models have shown  incredible severe synoptics in La la land but none within 7 days. These have often been watered down to some average cold spells. I can see no change in  my eyes. I think as the models stand, there isnt any sign of an intense Scandinavian/Siberian high that will benefit us, so that avenue is limited, but you never know. Ok we look North and that usually means temporary cold spells and if we are in luck some snow , but persisting more than a few days, that is unlikely,I cannot see a repeat of 2010 as the models are at present showing no signs of that. So that means probably a continuation of this rather cold weather unlikely to produce anything memorable.

This week we again have the jet stream a little further south than normal and fronts will be trying there best to make progress through the British isles but there is no intense cold air in situ or to our East or in Northern Europe and unfortunately its just that bit too mild for widespread snow, if any at all in the South. If we are lucky we could have temporary accumulations. I think eventually one of the systems will break through and will leave us again with polar maritime types of weather again with a succession of maybe not intense low pressures generally to our west.

The future this year

I feel as though we are unlikely once again to get any  severe weather but as usual the case in these modern winters i would expect high pressure to become intense to our North east again in early Spring and we could have some interesting weather then. That is not to say this winter hasnt   been one of the most exciting to follow in recent  years.... and some have seen the first good settling snow for years

I end  hoping that we all have at least one good blizzard. We deserve it, with all these promising synoptics

I love the banter on here, keep it up

Philip

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 27, 2021 by Derbyshire Snow

[Notty]

17 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Well that Para at 186 has us back on track with a building high over Iceland

The 6z not as good at the same time - but not terrible by any means

A bit further on in the run and it is completely different to the 00z run though 

00z

06z

 

[MJB]

Para 270h

GFS 270h

Bit of a difference 

[Ice Day]

Well these are much better runs that the overnighters.  At this point we are only looking at the broad synoptics as the real interest is out in FI.  But, we are seeing the height rises to the north appearing as per yesterdays MO update,  We will see some stonkers and some stinkers over the next few days; either could be the net result.  However, another cold chase is underway, I'm up for it!

Oh, and the Para is a doozy at 276