Model output discussion 24/01/21

[weirpig]

Icons  take on Saturday  snowfall   but because of the marginal  uppers etc   accum only on high ground. 

        

Edited January 27, 2021 by weirpig

[Tim Bland]

Did someone say m4

Edited January 27, 2021 by Tim Bland

[Tim Bland]

GFS further north...

[sheikhy]

Gfs slides even more for sunday!!

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

GFS further north...

Tasty for central and northern midlands

[Snowman.]

GFS good bit south with the main atlantic low. Euro slug trying to edge still need more disruption SE.

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Tasty for central and northern midlands

This will chop and change but history suggests the lows will be corrected south ..

[Snowman.]

UKMO 96 - 120 

  

Slideee

Edited January 27, 2021 by Snowman.

[Mark wheeler]

Ukmo 96 , is that low sliding ? 

[ICE COLD]

UKMO 12z heights/wedge to the north . 
 

T144 

[northwestsnow]

First impression of ukmo is positive.

At work so no time to over analyse.

[Mark wheeler]

On the face of it this looks a positive run .

Edited January 27, 2021 by Mark wheeler

[mountain shadow]

UKMO similar to GFS with the low positioning on Saturday and very slidey on Sunday too, and better at 144 with wedgy potential

Edited January 27, 2021 by mountain shadow

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

UKMO similar to GFS with the low positioning on Saturday and very slidey on Sunday too, and better at 144 with wedgey potential

Yes I'm thinking UKMO is an upgrade for coldies...

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

On the face of it this looks a positive run .

Yep looks cold enough for snow going on the 850s too

[Snowman.]

UKMO very different to GFS 120 onwards. 

[Day 10]

Such a fascinating battle going on with the mild & cold.

New month and hopefully a change of luck.

 

[sheikhy]

Hmmm ukmo looking very good throoughhout and gfs looking good so far!!ukmo has low further south for saturday but colder!!

[ICE COLD]

Pretty cold on UKMO from T72 to T144 . 

[Gowon]

GFSP for Saturday 

[chris55]

I seem to remember most charts for this weekend when they were at 144-168 looked like this..

But now at t96 they look more like this....

 

In this current pattern, which is pretty unusual in recent years, we need to remember how the models will generally push these Atlantic systems through in the mid term (144-240) but as the model time get closer they will often disrupt them.

Still need to home in on the details for the weekend but snow a possibility for some.

 

Edited January 27, 2021 by chris55

[nick sussex]

Looks like quite a slowdown in the eastwards movement and more trough disruption  on both the GFS and UKMO .

So take the day 6 output in mind as that could see more trough disruption.

 

[sheikhy]

Gfs p improved aswell❄

[Griff]

Nice. 

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Nice. 

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