Model output discussion 24/01/21

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Boom another snow event at 144 hours on ecm!!this time midlanda again but further north and east!

Certainly trending right way, but this one too far NE, Atlantic is in Midlands

[winterof79]

I'll collect my teddies later

[Man With Beard]

Ecm somehow avoids a snow event Sunday/Monday, too far sw. Seemed unavoidable!

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Will that day 6 chart look the same come the day given the changes we’ve seen in the earlier timeframe over the last day .

More trough disruption is still possible . 

Yes, that was my thought on looking at ECM T144, the low looks much rounder than the other models which are breaking up and sliding.  

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

The look of the low on the Atl. Ocean is quite different. Horizontal vs vertical. The wedge too is different, with a better profile from UKMO than EC Perhaps I miss something?

What we want to see is a more elongated low set up running nw se and not so bloated . This will better direct the energy se and keep the cold in place .

[Battleground Snow]

168 has the Iceland wedge!

[Griff]

Edited January 27, 2021 by Griff

[Snowman.]

!!!!

[ICE COLD]

T168 looks wedgey if that’s even a word

[BARRY]

20 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Well it better not happen like so or I'll be throwing all my teddies down the M1 I'd rather it be 100 mile south than a snowball throw away 

looks like we are in for another bout of laying rain lol

[Ice Day]

Here come the heights at 168 - excellent to see.  Now where does it go?

  

Oh, and here are the earlier GEFS - also excellent!

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Man Without Beard said:

Ecm somehow avoids a snow event Sunday/Monday, too far sw. Seemed unavoidable!

That's a worrry=via ecm although..we know there is a bundle of wriggle with this!!!..up n down we go.....

[Cloud 10]

ECM 168 slams the door shut.

 

[nick sussex]

Crucial now between day 7 and 8 the energy goes se not south . If it goes south it will force a ridge up through the western Med .

 

[Singularity]

...and another low slides southeast.

Parts of Scotland have already had a month of snow on the ground. The way things are shaping up it’s got a lot longer to go...!

By contrast, a painful ECM run for the far south as of day 7... but we’re used to it!

[KTtom]

The Atlantic low just seems to accept the inevatable and says...I GIVE UP!

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Boom chart incoming from the ECM...

168.

[The Northern Ramper]

12 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

I just believe how identical the snow event is to last sundays!!!the exact same amount and the exact same areas!!

Yeah we definitely need a 100 mile shift north to even things out

[ICE COLD]

T192 looking good  

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Boom chart incoming from the ECM...

168.

Check the polar format and elongation...we are heading into the freezer here

[Ice Day]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Crucial now between day 7 and 8 the energy goes se not south . If it goes south it will force a ridge up through the western Med .

 

It's going south east Nick!

[The Northern Ramper]

9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Yep.....

Oh my, bank!!!

[Griff]

And... 

Edited January 27, 2021 by Griff

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Crucial now between day 7 and 8 the energy goes se not south . If it goes south it will force a ridge up through the western Med .

 

Yes Nick crucial next frame coming up,i just hope that the Atlantic ridge joins the Iceland one to send that low SE.

Edit:it's gone SE-ish,i just had a squeaky bum then ha ha.

 

Edited January 27, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[KTtom]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

T192 looking good  

Not for the southern half...