Model output discussion 24/01/21

[Ice Day]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Still not enough energy heading se , we need to develop low pressure over Southern Europe . That will force the cold sw on its northern flank .

Good call Nick - not quite at day 9... yet.  But look at the cold pool over Scandi!!!

But this is a significant improvement over the 0z and a move towards the GEM and GFS

 

 

[Gadje]

30 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Oooosh ️

Is that Svalbard just north of the map you posted.

[Matt H]

Beautiful day 10 chart, looks like the UK won the Eurovision Song Contest then.

[ICE COLD]

Not quite ka boom yet . But we can build on this .

[Allseasons-Si]

Ooooooooh!!!!,....YES

ECM 240...,looks like a happy dog with tongue stuck out ha ha

i would pay a small fee to see the next frame.

Edited January 27, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[snowice]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Waiting for the ECM to come out , tension building ! Almost as exciting as waiting for the Eurovision Song Contest results !

ECM DOUZE POINTS

[TEITS]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Not quite ka boom yet . But we can build on this .

If the ECM continued then the colder airmass would move S as the flow veers more towards a NE,ly than E,ly.

[IDO]

Nothing south of Birmingham on this run TBH, at least at sea-level to d10:

  d9>

d9 very diffused and quite messy for any confidence, but the synoptic pattern for around then fits in with the trend of recent runs, a wedge around Iceland, Arctic high helping and undercutting of the Atlantic? So just have to see if it can all fit together by T0? Potential IMBY at d10!

 

[Captain Shortwave]

At this point it is all about potential week 2 trends.

1) Increasing confidence of high pressure building north of the U.K. with another high forming on the other side of the Arctic (North of Alaska).

2) Deep cold moving towards and potentially into Scandinavia and Eastern Europe. 
 

It wouldn’t take much from there. But obviously we need to build more confidence in points 1 and 2 above to even begin dreaming of the beast 2021.......

Edited January 27, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[That ECM]

Winter in a chart good runs tonight and best opportunity for whole uk being involved moving forward.

[Ice Day]

Massive strides forward tonight - ECM, GEM, GFS and GFSP for 240hrs.  There's a lot of similarities there to whet the appetite!

     

Absolutely nothing 'nailed' yet though, but I'd rather see this than not.  

[Matt H]

Just now, That ECM said:

Winter in a chart good runs tonight and best opportunity for whole uk being involved moving forward.

You jinxed it by giving Bournemouth nil points earlier.

[ICE COLD]

Just now, TEITS said:

If the ECM continued then the colder airmass would move S as the flow veers more towards a NE,ly than E,ly.

Was just pondering that Also thought we need some lower pressure over Europe. But I’m not gonna moan it’s been a very good day today . 

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, TEITS said:

If the ECM continued then the colder airmass would move S as the flow veers more towards a NE,ly than E,ly.

Yes this happened on the para earlier..

The behaviour of the Icelandic wedge at 144-168 is the key, it's so weak, so it's going to be nerve-wracking untill we get it to 72-96

[Cloud 10]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Not quite ka boom yet . But we can build on this .

 

I know what i'm hoping to build.

[nick sussex]

The ECM gets only 8 points from the jury vote , although I suspect the telephone vote from the public might score it a 10. I’ve become a bit Eurovision obsessed this evening ! 

The reason the high doesn’t have the correct alignment and there’s no deepish low over Southern Europe . We need the block orientated more  ene wsw .

At least it’s moving in the right direction . And there’s lots of drama in the earlier timeframe so plenty to keep us interested .

[Griff]

Just now, Ice Day said:

Massive strides forward tonight - ECM, GEM, GFS and GFSP for 240hrs.  There's a lot of similarities there to whet the appetite!

     

Absolutely nothing 'nailed' yet though, but I'd rather see this than not.  

I'm glad others are seeing this too now

[MJB]

Good from ECM BUT it has a long way to go , the 240h chart is only just getting the cold to the South and it is the 240h chart 

Let's also see how much of an outlier it is .............let's hope it isn't but we need to see where and if its supported.

Certainly an encouraging set of 12z's 

[Griff]

Just now, nick sussex said:

The ECM gets only 8 points from the jury vote , although I suspect the telephone vote from the public might score it a 10. I’ve become a bit Eurovision obsessed this evening ! 

The reason the high doesn’t have the correct alignment and there’s no deepish low over Southern Europe . We need the block orientated more  ene wsw .

At least it’s moving in the right direction . And there’s lots of drama in the earlier timeframe so plenty to keep us interested .

I'm chuffed with this, this evening. All I could have hoped for. 

Nice to see. 

[Stu_London]

The uppers actually go up between day 9 and 10 in the south on the ECM

Yes day 11,12,13 etc. would look lovely but they are as much use as Kojak's hairbrush.

Easterly looking more likely but exact placement, intensity and indeed whether it happens at all wont be resolved until at least the weekend. 

 

[bluearmy]

9 hours ago, fromey said:

You tease

It didn’t need any detail ..... the mist is clearing .....

[Anthony Burden]

ECM putting the rubber stamp on some excellent charts today,hope to continue 

the rest of the week with some more positive signs of northern blocking.

Great watching folks don’t put away the sledge or your winter gear,got a feeling 

you are going to need them.

[Kentspur]

Is ECM out to wind us up in the SE corner or what

[ICE COLD]

5 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Massive strides forward tonight - ECM, GEM, GFS and GFSP for 240hrs.  There's a lot of similarities there to whet the appetite!

     

Absolutely nothing 'nailed' yet though, but I'd rather see this than not.  

Yes it’s been a very good day today all runs moving the right way . Where’s @bluearmy thought he’d be all over this . 

EDIT - I see he’s here now lol 

Edited January 27, 2021 by ICE COLD

[Notty]

Older FAX Chart for Saturday -v- Latest ... front is further north: