Model output discussion 24/01/21

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Goes for the north midlands but very marginal so mainly Pennines 

The para is a very snowy run and gets more of the south involved. Even better than the ECM. 

GFS op was wrong last week and probably is this week.

[Tim Bland]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

The para is a very snowy run and gets more of the south involved. Even better than the ECM. 

GFS op was wrong last week and probably is this week.

Yes, further south with more in the way of snow...

[Eskimo]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Yes, further south with more in the way of snow...

Evaporative cooling event there for southern areas. Very marginal. 

[weirpig]

I think its a bit early to be chasing snow  at 3 -4 days away    the low could end up anywhere    probably best to leave it till the 12z on Friday  before we know  roughly were it will end up.   

[Mike Poole]

Sliding on both the GFS and // at T84.  Really weird the colours suggest // has better block but the older model has better trough disruption, more elongation on the lows system?

Edited January 27, 2021 by Mike Poole

[MJB]

Looking at the charts that have just been posted , very different to what the Beeb have just said

 

This is nothing like Thomas S.....ker suggests and his long ranger .....oh dear lol

 

 

[Griff]

Op is consistent at 144

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, MJB said:

Looking at the charts that have just been posted , very different to what the Beeb have just said

 

This is nothing like Thomas S.....ker suggests and his long ranger .....oh dear lol

 

 

Wait until tomorrow morning when they start using this evenings ECM...

[MattStoke]

20 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Goes for the north midlands but very marginal so mainly Pennines 

This not mainly the Pennines at all. Unless I live in the Pennines and don’t realise it.

Edited January 27, 2021 by MattStoke

[Griff]

Also good 

[Battleground Snow]

I think the OP is still playing catch up to the other models regarding the Iceland wedge, annoyingly we can't rule it out though.

Para retains the wedge we need at 144

 

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

This not mainly the Pennines at all. Unless I live in the Pennines and don’t realise it.

Mainly Pennines for more than a dusting I meant. Fwiw I don’t think it’s right. Something between GFSp and ECM is where my money is at right now

[Griff]

Been to the pub

[MJB]

9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Wait until tomorrow morning when they start using this evenings ECM...

Hope you are correct , he did start to mention under cutting 

[Mike Poole]

To use the GFS // T144 to try to explain what is relevant after the snow or not at the weekend:

The red circled area is the ‘wedge’.  And south of that the sliders underneath it have happened (yellow).  But the main attack comes from behind that as per the black arrow with warm air advection into the system which may or may not build a Scandi high.  

[ALL ABOARD]

Just now, MJB said:

Hope you are correct , he did start to mention under cutting 

The BBC just use the dermitatic ECM.. 

You can watch thier forecasts or look at the model for yourself. 

Don't be surprised if as each run ticks down the lows slide further and further.. 

Models overcook the potential to displace cold air. 

[MattStoke]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Mainly Pennines for more than a dusting I meant. Fwiw I don’t think it’s right. Something between GFSp and ECM is where my money is at right now

Brings about 10cm down here.

[sheikhy]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Brings about 10cm down here.

And 5cms close to leicester!!

[Tim Bland]

6 minutes ago, MJB said:

Hope you are correct , he did start to mention under cutting 

They always just show the last (12hrs previous ) ECM, so tomorrow morning they will show tonight’s ECM. 
 

Asside from Sat the GFSp has multiple chances for snow in different areas next week ...

Edited January 27, 2021 by Tim Bland

[Griff]

Parallel also nice

[ALL ABOARD]

Para has multiple snow events to 174. 

 

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Parallel also nice

This could be a very special run if the Lows clear south quickly

[MattStoke]

How are people able to view the GFSP? It hasn’t updated for about a week when I look on Meteociel.

[Eskimo]

Just now, MattStoke said:

How are people able to view the GFSP? It hasn’t updated for about a week when I look on Meteociel.

It's absolutely fine. Clear your cache! 

[Griff]

Just now, MattStoke said:

How are people able to view the GFSP? It hasn’t updated for about a week when I look on Meteociel.

Hit refresh, came back online over the weekend I think