Model output discussion 24/01/21

[Tim Bland]

Nothing marginal about this..wherever you are...

[ALL ABOARD]

Para gets there quicker and is a brilliant cold run... 

 

GFS sais hang on a minute... You want the beast here it comes.. 

[BLIZZARDMAN]

Northerly? Easterly? Cant quite tell

Edited January 27, 2021 by BLIZZARDMAN

[Battleground Snow]

The crucial juncture is at 132-156 when the Iceland high starts to form.

UKMO GEM PARA, ICON , and ECM det runs all show this forming, GFS op is on its own at the moment and it's ensembles will be even further behind.

It can't be discounted and it will be nervous check of the models in the morning, but high forming has to be the favoured solution at this current time.

 

[Griff]

For the lovers of clichés, just for fun, does gfs op attempt a reload and another stab? 

[Griff]

Parallel and decent frame to say good night! 

[ALL ABOARD]

Just now, Griff said:

For the lovers of clichés, just for fun, does gfs op attempt a reload and another stab? 

Trough drops down engages with vortex over northern europe 

Heights retorgoress to Greenland 

Beast is unleashed. 

Simples. 

[Tim Bland]

Looks like it’s going for a Greenland ridge ..sinking low, leading to easterly at the end Perhaps it ls a case of all roads lead to ...the M4 corridor

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

For the lovers of clichés, just for fun, does gfs op attempt a reload and another stab? 

If it continues to drop...it’s going to be a global cooling monster

 

BFTP

[MattStoke]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I don’t know why we are discussing this as the snow charts will change every run but Stoke is very near the Peak District ...

Stoke is not in the Peak District. It’s nothing like the Peak District and it’s at a far lower elevation. I think I know the place I live in! The chart also shows several cm far further south of Stoke.

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

The crucial juncture is at 132-156 when the Iceland high starts to form.

UKMO GEM PARA, ICON , and ECM det runs all show this forming, GFS op is on its own at the moment and it's ensembles will be even further behind.

It can't be discounted and it will be nervous check of the models in the morning, but high forming has to be the favoured solution at this current time.

 

Agree with this totally.  And it is such a slight feature, as we have discussed in here.  Why I say for once the 0z will upgrade...there’s a controversial prediction...

[Matt H]

Fantastic NH profile on the parallel run, the PV is toast. It also ties in well to the long-range UKMO update for February as well so perhaps we’re on to something for once!

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Stoke is not in the Peak District. It’s nothing like the Peak District and it’s at a far lower elevation. I think I know the place I live in! The chart also shows several cm far further south of Stoke.

I’m not sure what has upset you but if you read back I said ‘Mainly Peak District’ you then took offence as it showed snow in Stoke.. I then stated that Stoke was very near the Peak District. I’m happy to agree that the GFS op run (although mainly in the Peak District ) tonight showed snow in Stoke it will be 150 miles different in the morning so let’s not fall out over 15 miles

[MJB]

GFS at last joins in

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Frosty Winter said:

Fantastic NH profile on the parallel run, the PV is toast. It also ties in well to the long-range UKMO update for February as well so perhaps we’re on to something for once!

That’s quite some chart - i can’t recall ever seeing one with such a clean separation cross polar.   As most of you will have guessed I am smelling something pretty special in February now, the drivers like the ongoing effects of the SSW, and the MJO are not going away any time soon, I just expect the models to show more blocking in the right places run to run, and where we end up, we will see..

[Tim Bland]

All is well at the end of the GFS ...

[Battleground Snow]

Frustratingly most of the GEFS back the OP rather than the para at 168. I hope they flip soon. Probably would just be a delay until the cold, but we want it in earlier!

On to the 00z runs!

 

Edited January 27, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Mike Poole]

Another variant, the JMA out to T264:

OK, what lands won’t necessarily be once of these outlandish charts for the NH, but in the last decade we have never been more in the game for a decent UK cold spell...

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Frustratingly most of the GEFS back the OP rather than the para at 168. I hope they flip soon. Probably would just be a delay until the cold, but we want it in earlier!

On to the 00z runs!

 

I think the // advantage over the op is all down to massively increased vertical resolution, as the strat/trop connection is massively important here.  So it has a big advantage at trying to predict this over the op GFS and the GEFS.  Go with it, I am!  

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This

produces this

 

extraordinary

 

BFTP

Edited January 27, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[TallPaul]

53 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Wait until tomorrow morning when they start using this evenings ECM...

Interestingly David Braine (BBC weather presenter for Spotlight S.West) has just mentioned the bigger picture for UK this Sunday, and his snow graphics pretty much mirrored your above shot from ECM....so (at this stage) there's plenty for you to be positive about...and I'm very happy for you...

[ICE COLD]

Well great runs today . Enough said see u in the morning . 

[Don]

13 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Frustratingly most of the GEFS back the OP rather than the para at 168. I hope they flip soon. Probably would just be a delay until the cold, but we want it in earlier!

On to the 00z runs!

 

No, we can't be doing with delays.  The more it's delayed, the more can go wrong!

[Tim Bland]

6 minutes ago, TallPaul said:

Interestingly David Braine (BBC weather presenter for Spotlight S.West) has just mentioned the bigger picture for UK this Sunday, and his snow graphics pretty much mirrored your above shot from ECM....so (at this stage) there's plenty for you to be positive about...and I'm very happy for you...

Funny thing is they will still be using that graphic until lunchtime tomorrow...by which time there will have been the 06z run, which will probably just show rain for all

[TallPaul]

4 minutes ago, TallPaul said:

Interestingly David Braine (BBC weather presenter for Spotlight S.West) has just mentioned the bigger picture for UK this Sunday, and his snow graphics pretty much mirrored your above shot from ECM....so (at this stage) there's plenty for you to be positive about...and I'm very happy for you...

Apologies, i also wanted to include MJB's post prior to Tim's reply...but had no idea how to quote separate posts!....but you get where I'm going!