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Model output discussion 24/01/21

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
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Posted (edited)

No disasters so far on the 00z runs, but maybe a 12-24 hour delay on the cold uppers getting to the UK.

Para and OP should go on to be another classic from here

Edit: gem is even better than its 12z run at 192!

Fantastic to wake up to upgrades! Still over a week out yet so caution required.

 

gfsnh-1-192 (3).png

gfsnh-0-192 (11).png

gfsnh-1-192 (2).png

gfsnh-0-192 (10).png

Edited by Battleground Snow
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

UKMO looks cold throughout.

However.....

The spoiler Azores high is attempting to build across Europe at 144,I can see were the 168 might go wrong with pressure build into Europe being absolutely the last thing coldies would want...

image.thumb.png.18bafbed5d28ce9f033db66691ae208d.png

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO looks cold throughout.

However.....

The spoiler Azores high is attempting to build across Europe at 144,I can see were the 168 might go wrong with pressure build into Europe being absolutely the last thing coldies would want...

image.thumb.png.18bafbed5d28ce9f033db66691ae208d.png

The Azores high is displaced towards the USA and Canada, it's a ridge coming from Africa, but I take your point, we need the trough to move south east sharpish there.

I haven't been impressed with Ukmo 144 charts of late, whether they show cold or mild

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
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Posted

Unbelievable finally a cold 00z run. Not too crazy far out either, this time next week and we could see actual cold easterly winds.

FD9DB801-2F10-47D0-A5F6-4BB38D012BFE.thumb.png.c424ee7ecd05b67d3788ff95294490a8.png7FDC67A7-B0D4-45A0-870A-AD446A513283.thumb.png.97411c57d8ce861a747435a48c46cae1.png

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

GFS and GEM are superb this morning...

Just that ukmo 144 ....

GEM 144 

image.thumb.png.9c60d79505d8e24d3849bc95dc085701.png

UKMO 144

image.thumb.png.dd53071d89bc14921585d209156e29c4.png

Subtle but perhaps important differences ...

Look east / north east...

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
11 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Is there any point looking pass 120hrs at the moment? Look how much UKMO runs have changed for the start of February and this is within the 144hr range. 

image.thumb.png.63b95ee5bc9d8ea8a4ddcd0b68e2c0d1.pngimage.thumb.png.79cc6ac660dd604ab1800c8c421ff18f.pngimage.thumb.png.026e9768f40ad466b2e876f6b6af1167.png

 

Yep.

You have a point there Kevin.

EC out shortly ,I'm sure we will be happy if it follows GEM!

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KTtom Experienced

KTtom

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
Posted

Fax chart for Monday shows how the weekend 'events' are struggling to make it further north than Wales and Midlands, better news for the south western quadrant. Then, are we finally seeing some consensus and a trend emerging of the trough finally making inroads over and then to the east of the UK with high pressure re-asseting itself in its wake..will it make it far enough north to bring the coldest easterly or end up very near or over the UK still to be determined?

 

Fax for Monday:

PPVO89.gif

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
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Posted
13 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Fax chart for Monday shows how the weekend 'events' are struggling to make it further north than Wales and Midlands, better news for the south western quadrant. Then, are we finally seeing some consensus and a trend emerging of the trough finally making inroads over and then to the east of the UK with high pressure re-asseting itself in its wake..will it make it far enough north to bring the coldest easterly or end up very near or over the UK still to be determined?

 

Fax for Monday:

PPVO89.gif

If anyone deserves some snow its the south west !!

Fingers crossed ...

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

T144 all 3. All 3 with a strong suggestion of heights building to the north. We will see how ecm pans out but I like the the t144 output for how it may develop.

15831428-2562-4CD9-B359-6F5AF1D465A0.png

9F18103F-331A-4934-A67A-B64A150F902B.gif

E79E431E-A9F0-4BFF-A14C-0803B5D1DB97.png

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted

Way out in FI but east Med heights remain a *moderate* risk in the medium term.  Just about got away with it in this morning’s ECM.
 

Well signposted in the in the EPS for quite a while now.  Needs watching.

 

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
18 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T144 all 3. All 3 with a strong suggestion of heights building to the north. We will see how ecm pans out but I like the the t144 output for how it may develop.

15831428-2562-4CD9-B359-6F5AF1D465A0.png

9F18103F-331A-4934-A67A-B64A150F902B.gif

E79E431E-A9F0-4BFF-A14C-0803B5D1DB97.png

Turned out ok then. The two highs nearly linking up. Of course JFF but great trend.

0B758B7E-B6BC-4213-8084-4B94DDCB457C.png

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Is it just me that's a little underwhelmed by the Oz's? 

Could be better, but could worse too.

Lol

82C21B80-4FE2-4395-A8C1-E8538745AB10.thumb.png.db782b9a7c512e7866b946f569100f83.png

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Sky Full Accomplished

Sky Full

Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
Posted

GFS 0Z this morning develops an easterly with genuinely cold origins for four days from the 5th February....

D88ABF7D-5048-4B9B-8F46-5CD3ADA2F892.thumb.gif.74ded01cf4c2e11d588b9fbd22840ab7.gif

However, the genuinely cold air does not quite reach the UK...

A4F1C6C5-C6BA-426C-9996-07A57C1488AB.thumb.gif.1cd2adc7b88a6ae43654f7df19f9191e.gif

...and there is very little snow showing up on the precipitation chart....

92CBCF7D-E73E-4B57-A1AB-68ACD8C71710.thumb.gif.cabe6256384b78eb2830b8b0b3c51c15.gif

Far too early to be taken seriously but these charts could improve as we move into February.  The easterly could, of course, also disappear....

 

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john mac1 Enthusiast

john mac1

Posted
  • Location: waltham abbey, essex 142ft a.s.l
  • Location: waltham abbey, essex 142ft a.s.l
Posted
6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Is it just me that's a little underwhelmed by the Oz's? 

Could be better, but could worse too.

I agree, and Nick S said last night. It’s crucial that we get low heights into Southern Europe to help drawn in the easterly. 

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
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Posted

Well that’s another cracking day 9/10 chart from the ECM, and will lead to a substantial “big freeze” if it materialises.  The days are getting longer, it doesn’t mean you can’t have a big freeze in 6 weeks time but fingers are crossed for things to fall right earlier than later in Feb. 

6AD4BFE9-2F50-4AD5-8533-2A03813B2A64.png

49C395BB-7572-4325-80D6-08E440940F17.png

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
8 hours ago, Battleground Snow said:

Frustratingly most of the GEFS back the OP rather than the para at 168. I hope they flip soon. Probably would just be a delay until the cold, but we want it in earlier!

On to the 00z runs!

 

I've been thinking about gfs vs parallel and whether gefs will ever support the parallel,  for quite some time, but I don't think they ever will. Not because either is 100% correct or better compared to its relative (although here's hoping the parallel is a more accurate model). Rather, they are different models. Now if you had access to a parallel gefs suite, then that would be a like for like comparison. 

FYI, pleasantly surprised to wake up to positivity here this morning

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
11 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Is it just me that's a little underwhelmed by the Oz's? 

Could be better, but could worse too.

T384 mean. That is a strong indication of current model thinking. Details impossible of course but much interest ahead.

D3B5FD01-E2FF-4BA1-AF2C-3885097BCCC5.png

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Well that’s another cracking day 9/10 chart from the ECM, and will lead to a substantial “big freeze” if it materialises.  The days are getting longer, it doesn’t mean you can’t have a big freeze in 6 weeks time but fingers are crossed for things to fall right earlier than later in Feb. 

6AD4BFE9-2F50-4AD5-8533-2A03813B2A64.png

49C395BB-7572-4325-80D6-08E440940F17.png

I would imagine there would monumental snowfall totals along the boundary between the bitter Arctic air and the very warm air from Africa.

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