Model output discussion 24/01/21

[Tim Bland]

ICON reminds us that this isn’t a done deal with rain for most, perhaps sleet, with any snow on higher ground 

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Purga said:

V good ECM mean chart again for D9

Yes, the warning signs are though the way the back end sags out of it at D10 though, thats my major concern.

[sheikhy]

Gfs 06z further south but still hits the midlands!!more like ecm this time!!

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ICON reminds us that this isn’t a done deal with rain for most, perhaps sleet, with any snow on higher ground 

That is because the model has it way further North though, that is why the setting snow is in the Pennines only, if it tracks over the midlands it will be much more likely to be snow

[Blizzardof82]

The GFS 6z has drawn the M4 with its precipitation chart for Saturday 

 

[Battleground Snow]

4 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

The GFS 6z has drawn the M4 with its precipitation chart for Saturday 

 

Para is solid with its southern track, just don't expect too much accumulation in the south

[Notty]

6 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

The GFS 6z has drawn the M4 with its precipitation chart for Saturday 

 

GFS // has it ever so slightly further south.

[Battleground Snow]

3 things to look for in the upcoming GFS runs.

1. Iceland wedge formation

2. The big trough at 144 to move quicker south east and slide.

3. The sliding trough to move east towards Italy rather than Iberia to prevent warm uppers being pulled into Eastern Europe from the med and Africa

[Tim Bland]

Re Sat...If I was to place a bet I’d go with the middle ground of all the models so south of icon / GFS and north of UKV / GFSp . ECM seems a reasonable compromise of all the models at the moment. 

[Notty]

It is as if everyone is holding their breath

[Battleground Snow]

The GFS OP has almost joined the other models, but not quite yet, it looks like it may slide the low though.

^^^^ nobody want to guess wrong haha

[Griff]

GFS and parallel looking consistent so far

GFS 180 and // 156 so far

[Notty]

GFS Op at 06z is very close to the 00z at T+180

Good consistency !

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Man Without Beard said:

I think they're already on the way - the thing about a Scandi High in winter is it as often doesn't go that warm at 500mb, so sometimes it doesn't show quite as distinctly as other highs on the 500mb chart - this doesn't mean it's a weak high but rather it has very cold air at the centre. But on last night's NOAA 8-14 day chart there's already a small ridge to our north:

Im very happy with the way these have gradually developed over the last few days. Consistent in their development, IMHO support some very cold weather as the mean upper flow is to the South  of the UK mainly, a negative pressure anomaly over Biscay with ridging to our North..

Thats cold.

[Tim Bland]

Apologies if this has been posted and I’ve missed it , but check out cluster 1 

[Battleground Snow]

The para is going to be the better run again here. Let's hope it's right.

[Kentspur]

3 hours ago, Sky Full said:

GFS 0Z this morning develops an easterly with genuinely cold origins for four days from the 5th February....

However, the genuinely cold air does not quite reach the UK...

...and there is very little snow showing up on the precipitation chart....

Far too early to be taken seriously but these charts could improve as we move into February.  The easterly could, of course, also disappear....

 

4, possibly 5 days I see snow in areas that haven't had any yet, I'd take that yes please GFS!

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

The para is going to be the better run again here. Let's hope it's right.

Looks a bit too far south and east maybe?!

[Drifter]

The Genoa low has appeared on cue. 
 

“Genoa? Yes, lovely lady”.

[DavidS]

GFS 6z at 216. Looking chilly.

 

[winterof79]

15 minutes ago, Notty said:

It is as if everyone is holding their breath

In the South

[Battleground Snow]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Looks a bit too far south and east maybe?!

The OP might be okay actually, para has a monster Scandi high

[IDO]

I believe if every model gets to d8 similar to the gfs 06z op:

d8> d10>

That where ever we go, and the 06z is another change post-d9, that the forecast will be cold, just to what degrees?

[kumquat]

34 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Para is solid with its southern track, just don't expect too much accumulation in the south

Indeed, whichever model wins out the South, at least, faces rain by Tuesday. You could win the lottery and get a good dump over the weekend.  The pattern moving forwards is looking very good, though.

GFS 06Z

 

GFS Para 06Z

 

 

[Ice Day]

The GFS has had a bit of a flip out but is desperately trying to redeem itself at day 11

The Para is absolutely fantastic at day 8/9