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Model output discussion 24/01/21

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
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Posted

GEFS looking really good at day 8 a lot of cold runs in there . 

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Stu_London said:

Interestingly, the long term BBC video is massively ramping mild for 8-9 days time - guessing it must of been based on EC 0z, which I didn't see, but must have been not much cop.

 

Are you referring to Tomas S's forecast?  Lots of twists and turns to come with the models I think!  Latest BBC monthly forecast not looking bad for cold.

Edited by Don
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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted

Shades of 2018 here - the GEFS mean has latched onto a Scandi High deep into FI and seems to be counting down. That's at least 6 runs in a row on the same date. 

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But I'd feel better still if it became a 1030mb mean high

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
Just now, londonblizzard said:

GEFS 850s mean for 6th Feb now down to -6 for London. Thats Progress from -4/ -5 for the last several runs.

I expect them to look very good in the graph form when they update .

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, londonblizzard said:

GEFS 850s mean for 6th Feb now down to -6 for London. Thats Progress from -4/ -5 for the last several runs.

This set is gonna be an absolute snorter - tell tale sign when the mean 850's barely gets any warmer over a few frames, it means the ridge is just staying in situ holding the Atlantic from making any inroads.

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This set is gonna be an absolute snorter - tell tale sign when the mean 850's barely gets any warmer over a few frames, it means the ridge is just staying in situ holding the Atlantic from making any inroads.

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Yep that mean at T276 is

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
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Posted
6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I expect them to look very good in the graph form when they update .

Majority cluster now either cold or severely cold. This is usually when they start to go down the pan - 24 to 48 hours more of this and we are home and hosed.

 

gfs-manchester-gb-535n-2 (4).png

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
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Posted

The excitement is building and the stress levels are going up with it..some lovely ensembles. Model volatility...its enough to make you wanna drink!

 

 

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Uncertainty Accomplished

Uncertainty

Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West
Posted
13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Majority cluster now either cold or severely cold. This is usually when they start to go down the pan - 24 to 48 hours more of this and we are home and hosed.

 

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That’s it tho Feb we’ve been here before this winter, but not with the reversal/mjo push concurrently.  The EC mean turnaround tonight is also noteworthy, SW to E mean.image.thumb.gif.c55156f20ab07492d95b6d2b0ee3ca62.gifimage.thumb.gif.c1460ea2db85942a2ac7bf756ac0a8b1.gif

Lots of the runs get there w/o a big Atlantic height rise, the wedge just sort of materialises which is even better really. makes you think there’s big forcing on the pattern not a reliance on a sequence of iffy steps. 

Two solid days of upgrades needed here and we can start popping the corks.And perhaps get some clarity on what category of easterly rather than whether it’s going to be one.

Having the Meto/BBC on board calms the nerves, and that GEFS mean is outrageous @CreweCold, but it’s no in the bag yet.

It needs to be there in the morning first!

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

That’s it tho Feb we’ve been here before this winter, but not with the reversal/mjo push concurrently.  The EC mean turnaround tonight is also noteworthy, SW to E mean.

Lots of the runs get there w/o a big Atlantic height rise, the wedge just sort of materialises which is even better really. makes you think there’s big forcing on the pattern not a reliance on a sequence of iffy steps. 

Two solid days of upgrades needed here and we can start popping the corks.And perhaps get some clarity on what category of easterly rather than whether it’s going to be one.

Having the Meto/BBC on board calms the nerves, and that GEFS mean is outrageous @CreweCold, but it’s no in the bag yet.

It needs to be there in the morning first!

Ridge actually gaining latitude on a mean 300+ 30 member chart!!!!!!!

@londonblizzard i will take this one for the biggest dumping.

image.thumb.png.fc442e096f036ad0d8c55298566eb551.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted
20 minutes ago, londonblizzard said:

I take this one, cheers. 

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That would be a Feb 91 redux, 30 years to the day.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

How do you like your daytime maxima Jan 87 style - -5c over most parts and -12c over highland Scotland under that slack flow.

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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted
1 hour ago, Don said:

Are you referring to Tomas S's forecast?  Lots of twists and turns to come with the models I think!  Latest BBC monthly forecast not looking bad for cold.

Yes. Didn't take much notice. Tomas loves a mild ramp and was based on out of date modelling. 

 

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weathermadbarnsleylad Aficionado

weathermadbarnsleylad

Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
Posted
4 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

I don’t know why we are discussing this as the snow charts will change every run but Stoke is very near the Peak District ...

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Good old Barnsley in the top right corner. Cracking view from my house. Live just to the left of the barnsley. Yellow marker. Stunning view on a clear day. 30/45 mins bike on the trans pennine trail you hit Dunford bridge. Edge of the pennines Stunning absolutely stunning. 

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted
2 hours ago, Stu_London said:

Yes. Didn't take much notice. Tomas loves a mild ramp and was based on out of date modelling. 

 

All that hair he has aquired might be impacting his judgement

Just catching up - some outrageous ensembles from the 18z. Starting to feel all 2018 - surely the MJO is playing a big role here?

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted

GFS op has adjusted south by about 30 miles with the snow event Saturday,

The para maintains its more southern path.

Accumulations will probably be held back due to the rain before it turns to snow, will be a forecasters nightmare I think again. Few cms looking at least possible over a wide area though I imagine.

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted (edited)

Ukmo looks decent at 144, could do with low not blowing up, but at least it has the wedge.

GFS OP starting to smell the coffee at 144 with a super weak high now near Iceland, will probably need a couple more runs to get on the same page as the other models

Para maintaining the wedge at 144

 

 

 

gfsnh-0-144 (21).png

gfsnh-0-144 (20).png

UN144-21 (26).gif

Edited by Battleground Snow
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