Model output discussion 24/01/21

[winterof79]

Well Nick sussex its having a good go

[snowice]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Crucial now between day 7 and 8 the energy goes se not south . If it goes south it will force a ridge up through the western Med .

 

You must have a crystal ball it's gone SE.

[sheikhy]

Holy crap what an ecm!!and for us in the midlands thats 3 big snow events within 5 days!!

[ICE COLD]

Just now, KTtom said:

Not for the southern half...

Was just talking about the broader pattern . Yer 850s not great down here but we’re headed the right way . 

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, KTtom said:

Not for the southern half...

A world away pal @this range...

 

 

 

[saintkip]

18 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

I just believe how identical the snow event is to last sundays!!!the exact same amount and the exact same areas!!

It’s not the same as the south saw snow last Sunday 

[Johnp]

2 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Not for the southern half...

Can't you see the likely progression?

[nick sussex]

Just now, snowice said:

You must have a crystal ball it's gone SE.

Still not enough energy heading se , we need to develop low pressure over Southern Europe . That will force the cold sw on its northern flank .

[Daniel*]

How can people not see we’re very close to going into freezer?

[Man With Beard]

I know ecm T192 looks inviting, but the uppers to our south suggest we'd be on the edge of warm weather too! 

[Mike Poole]

ECM T192

Almost GEM-like for the wider picture.  Particularly as the ECM was less inspiring for UK at T144 than the other models due to the rounder low, these two things are different though and only partially related.  

[Captain Shortwave]

A tentative consensus that after a series of fronts disrupting through the U.K. that the upstream pattern may relent and allow heights to rise in The Atlantic and potentially link up to weak heights over the north of the U.K. This would finally allow a polar airmass to move towards us from the north or east depending on the final placement of the high.

ECM

 

GEM

 

A lot of nail biting moments before this point where cold dry air will potentially turn any rain from Atlantic fronts to snow in some parts of the UK.

[Frosty_wsm]

Just now, Man Without Beard said:

I know ecm T192 looks inviting, but the uppers to our south suggest we'd be on the edge of warm weather too! 

With the poor outlook for the far south snow wise give me that warm weather, I'll take it! 

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

How can people not see we’re very close to going into freezer?

 

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T192

Almost GEM-like for the wider picture.  Particularly as the ECM was less inspiring for UK at T144 than the other models due to the rounder low, these two things are different though and only partially related.  

A few of us have been saying this is where things were heading.

[ICE COLD]

Yessss at t216 

[Mark wheeler]

21 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

I just believe how identical the snow event is to last sundays!!!the exact same amount and the exact same areas!!

Not quite I don’t think Surrey for example gets in on the action here as it did at the weekend.

[TEITS]

GEM is heading in the direction I was expecting with this incredible cross polar flow.

[sheikhy]

Ecm you little beaauuuty at 216 hours!!!!!!

[Griff]

On its way! 

[Troubleatmill]

25 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Tim I can throw an ice ball a long way pal.... Problem being ill have no snow

Are we actually expecting this on Saturday though? Looking at temps I don't see it and the one I look at has it as a Welsh hills wet snow event? ECM chart and precip:

[Cloud 10]

Impressive Arctic high at 216hrs with deep cold incoming.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

The ECM is being a good boy this evening and following the trends of the other medium to long range hitters

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Beano said:

Are we actually expecting this on Saturday though? Looking at temps I don't see it and the one I look at has it as a Welsh hills wet snow event? ECM chart and precip:

Yup cold air undercutting from north east and low dew pooints!!!

[ICE COLD]

Should be boom town at 240 with the beast entering . Yes I know the reply’s will start flying in = not day 10 again . But big strides forward today . 

[Chertseystreamer79]

1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

Not quite I don’t think Surrey for example gets in on the action here as it did at the weekend.

Its identical for the Midlands but for surrey its 100 miles out. Even so...its wednesday, the snow band was predicted wrong a bit last weekend so in my book....all to play for!