Model output discussion 24/01/21

[That ECM]

I’m still encouraged. This would give opportunities. 

[Griff]

Just now, That ECM said:

I’m still encouraged. This would give opportunities. 

I'm just grateful it's not completely different than the last day or so. 

[Snowjokes92]

24 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Tasty for central and northern midlands

Yes! Manchester and leeds do well also

[Mike Poole]

Very interesting set up, the lows are sliding but against the most slight block you could imagine, GFS // T150:

GFS is even slighter, but goes on to deliver a promising pattern later.  We are really seeing the lack of a strong vortex driving the systems off the Atlantic - in a way it is more like a summer setup.

[Griff]

Getting there 

[SLEETY]

poor performance by models they had the low pressure pushing through the uk by sunday a couple of days ago now its not even made it to the uk,so cant trust anything they show at the moment,way too prgressive with the lows in the Atlantic

 

Edited January 27, 2021 by SLEETY

[Battleground Snow]

I think the GFS op is still underestimating the wedge around Iceland, I expect it will correct on further runs, it might still get there but will be slower.

Para still has maintained the weak heights.

 

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

I think the GFS op is still underestimating the wedge around Iceland, I expect it will correct on further runs, it might still get there but will be slower.

Para still has maintained the weak heights.

 

Yeap, but still cold

[Griff]

GFS op

[Griff]

I like the parallel 

[IDO]

The difference on this run is that Arctic high forcing the pattern in a colder direction:

12z>06z>

You can see the ebb and flows have changed and with the Arctic high driving the Siberian lows better towards Scandi, it has rebounded in the Atlantic as the westerly flow faces off that vortex from the NE! At this range that Arctic high could change many times so although interesting, just another option atm. 
 

I do not think that the models are getting it badly wrong as some suggest, just the inevitable issues that wedges and Arctic highs have to the verification at this range?

 

[Ice Day]

The GFS has a deeping low over the Med at day 9.5 which could crank up the easterly.  Very cold at the surface on this chart: 

  

[Windysun1]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

I like the parallel 

Are you expecting further upgrades tonight Griff?  Its certainly encouraging (Long as not back to square one in the morning : (

 

[Timmytour]

9 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

poor performance by models they had the low pressure pushing through the uk by sunday a couple of days ago now its not even made it to the uk,so cant trust anything they show at the moment,way too prgressive with the lows in the Atlantic

 

Tomorrow's runs might make it look as it they weren't being progressive enough with them!  (though I am literally praying that it doesn't turn out to be the case!)

[IDO]

I like this gfs run, maybe 5+ days of settled colder conditions will enable the country to dry out and then we will see where we go:

d10> 

Of course, will likely be gone by the 18z!

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Windysun1 said:

Are you expecting further upgrades tonight Griff?  Its certainly encouraging (Long as not back to square one in the morning : (

 

I'd just be grateful for consistency, this is an upgrade compared to last year, and 00z probably poorer before excitement builds over the day?  

[Updated_Weather]

35 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

This will chop and change but history suggests the lows will be corrected south ..

Maybe so. But last weekends low kept trending north and it ended up being more north than suggested.

[Matt H]

The parallel run is beautiful this afternoon.

[Griff]

Meanwhile, where will the gem take things? 

[Climate Man]

32 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

UKMO similar to GFS with the low positioning on Saturday and very slidey on Sunday too, and better at 144 with wedgy potential

Slidey and wedgy lol. Love the technical discussion.  Never change!

[mountain shadow]

The bloody ECM better not let us down tonight.

[Day 10]

4 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

The parallel run is beautiful this afternoon.

The finger of bitter cold is tapping us on the shoulder there finally saying 'I'm here'

Edited January 27, 2021 by Day 10

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Meanwhile, where will the gem take things? 

I've peaked ahead @Griff and it's very similar to the para at 192

[Johnp]

Tonight's para =

Let's hope it's now the most accurate model. 

[Ice Day]

GFS and GFSP at 240 - say no more!

 

Just need some luck with this pattern, but we have a decent chance.  I would have taken that at the start of winter.