Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Osca31]

46 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I keep looking at the radar thinking the models are way off for today!  ECM had some snow for the south west and Wales with a bit into the south but I wouldn’t be surprised if more of the west mids and central south see something later  

Bone dry here despite radar showing snow!

[sunnijim]

55 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

That the ecm op is on the money unfortunately. 

I'm not convinced that is the case..

Yet

The jury is still out on the ECM, infact the jury has been out for so long this time,we would do well to reduce its sentence for its 'bad behaviour' to just 'community service'on the 12z...that being  'get envolved' in the dreamy cold charts,and all might be forgiven! No grudges held.

[supernova]

57 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Normally I would agree if it wasn't for this mornings UKMO.

Very complicated set up really. The midweek low has one shortwave moving E, another S and the main low remains in situ and then tries to move N!!

I shall stick with what I said earlier and that is this low will move S along with the shortwave at a much faster pace than what the ECM/GFS is suggesting. The ECM can be wrong with the predicted snowfall for this weekend and early next week being dreadfully way off from its predictions a few days ago. I said as much at the time because its forecasts never made any sense to me.

On a positive note you could argue that whilst the 06 GFS is poor early on, the latter stages are far better than a few days ago. So its swings and roundabouts really as I do not expect this to be our last chance. Seems N blocking will continue to be a feature for a while yet.

Glad you're back posting @TEITS and especially appreciative when like some of the other more knowledgeable members on here (whose contributions I readily seek out) you stick your neck out and back it up with tangible detail that explains why you favour a certain outcome. Hope you're right and glad to be reading your insightful comments again.

[Cloud 10]

GFS op versus GEFS at day 6.

 

[Alexis]

Ah, it wouldn't be winter without two models going for serious cold and the third one stubbornly refusing!

[Vikos]

17 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

This is an excellent illustration of the poor modelling by the EC Operational lately.

The Eastern Hemisphere and the Arctic were modelled completely different on day 10 from what it makes of it on day 3.
Not even that far from being the exact opposite, I'd say.
That does not inspire much confidence in what it is showing today at those FI timeframes.

Below I've added the GFS at 240h for that same 0z on January 24th. Much better match!

The past few days EC has been consistent only at finding all the things that can go wrong, but different things every time.
It's been at the very poorest end of its ensembles for several days now, which is an odd thing. After day 5/6 it diverges from the ensemble mean, which shows sensitivity to starting conditions.

Really folks, watch FI charts (120h and later) just for entertainment, not for reliable information.

At least one who got it

But hey, don't take the toys away from the kids!

[Frosty.]

There’s still tons of support for cold...we may not be looking  at the Beasterly that most crave..but..this is still a million..billion ....or even a trillion times better than the garbage of the last several winters!

Edited January 31, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Robbie Coldrain]

14 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

There are lots of descriptive  words for the model output at the moment but "boring" certainly isn't one of them.

GFS brings blizzard conditions to parts of the Midlands and Northern England next weekend,with over half a metre of snow in quite a few favoured locations by day 10.

 

You won't be able to get out of your front doors up north if that happens!

Rain feast for south east, but that's par for the course these days.  We always find a way to warmer air down here, no matter what.

[NewEra21]

GFS 06z op pretty much a mild outlier all the way throughout the run. Some much, much colder runs in there

[IDO]

1 minute ago, NewEra21 said:

GFS 06z op pretty much a mild outlier all the way throughout the run. Some much, much colder runs in there

There were only two members showing the UK low at d5-6 including the op, so that is no surprise! The other one is probably the mildest ensemble? This is def about that low and if the op is correct we have little data to determine if the op is an outlier, it may turn out to be the coldest option if we take the ecm as the mildest! All will be revealed in a few hours...

[Timmytour]

6 minutes ago, Alexis said:

Ah, it wouldn't be winter without two models going for serious cold and the third one stubbornly refusing!

I've known too many winters when all of them (well maybe barring the CMA) were stubbornly refusing to go for any kind of cold!

 

And they proved to be very accurate in that respect at least!

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

Op borderline an outlier next weekend.

Great stuff. Mean of -9

 

 

1 hour ago, MJB said:

I'd fast forward to that at the blink of an eye 

The Control is a good un

Quite how people can complain at charts like these I'll never know. 

Sure the ECM is a slight concern, but everything else is a variation on a theme and we have a very cold week ahead of us. Interesting model watching for sure!

[TSNWK]

7 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

GFS 06z op pretty much a mild outlier all the way throughout the run. Some much, much colder runs in there

Wow! That's huge difference and not in the realm of silly o clock. 

Heart says yes.  But my head says surely the op with greater resolution has to have the balance of probability in its favour

[Trom]

3 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Presumably the lower the line the better ........ecm with less error at day 3 

Yes RMSE is the standard deviation of forecast values around an actual value for out of sample data. Lower means greater predictive ability. 

[supernova]

35 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

GFS 06z op pretty much a mild outlier all the way throughout the run. Some much, much colder runs in there

No thanks GFS 06z Op, we'll take the Control if you please. Admittedly at the colder end of the ensembles but still viable. The main point being that if the limpet low disrupts mostly south rather filling in situ or heading N/NE we end up with a clean Easterly and soon afterwards a variation of this...

Edited January 31, 2021 by supernova

[SqueakheartLW]

As 06z GFS ensemble roll out comes to a close in the next few minutes I have decided to start this analysis of the 06z and compared it with the 00z

Here are the latest set of average charts for the peak of the predicted cold spell. This time they are from 162 hours away

A nice mean if you are after a beasterly in around a week from now with that average easterly showing up yet again and with the high ang low spaced out perfectly to put the UK in the broad easterly flow. The 850hpa temperature average of the 06z ensembles at 162 hours away comes out at a new low of -9.8 which is -7.7 below the long term mean and another -0.5 upgrade to the cold spell. The anomaly chart shows even deeper blues over the UK now and even colder pink colours appearing to our east now. If GFS is on the mark here this looks like a significant cold snap at the very least and maybe even a longer spell.

Mildest 3 charts of the GFS 06z at 162 hours away

3rd     Member 24     850hpa temp -5.9

A high pressure dominated option at 162 hours away on Member 24. This one looks as though the high pressure sank south too quickly before any colder uppers could move in from the east. As a result the colder weather ends up heading to E and SE Europe whilst we end up stuck under less cold air but it looks like colder weather could push down from the north instead.

2nd     Operational     850hpa temp -2.7

Good news for cold fans who generally rely on the operational run is that is was a significant milder outlier in the suite at 162 hours away. This one looks the opposite to the above situation and this time it is the low pressure that drags its heels and keeps the cold from moving in over the UK. More likely flooding could be the big issue here if this comes off

1st     Member 9     850hpa temp -1.1

Very much similar to the op run but uppers are even less cold than with the op. No doubt an even bigger delay to getting the cold to move in.

Coldest 3 charts of the GFS 06z at 162 hours away

3rd     Control     850hpa temp -12.3

A nice beasterly for the southern half of the UK with snow a real risk here. The north more likely to be dry and cold under the high pressure. Very cold uppers associated with the beasterly in the south in particular.

2nd     Member 14     850hpa temp -12.5

An even stronger and more widespread beasterly here with snow a threat across the whole UK but in the east in particular. Very cold uppers, especially in more central regions of the UK.

1st     Member 22     850hpa temp -13.1

A more gentle easterly here with even colder uppers than the last option but a lesser snow risk with higher pressure in general and a slacker flow meaning any showers getting less far inland.

Closest 6 runs to the average 850hpa mean of -9.8 on the GFS 06z (Range -8.5 to -11.0)

Member 13     850hpa temp -8.5

A high pressure dominated option to start the close to the ensemble average selection. Dry, cold and frosty with a freezing fog risk the most likely flavours of the day here

Member 4     850hpa temp -8.7

Even more high pressure dominated than the first option so similar theme but with colder uppers then it could be even colder here with slacker winds and a possible covering of snow from any beasterly just before this.

Member 30     850hpa temp -9.4

A very slack flow under the ridge of high pressure. Coastal snow showers likely but inland dry, cold and frosty and could be even colder than the first 2 options.

Member 11     850hpa temp -10.6

A bit more of a beasterly here at least for southern UK so snow showers the order of the day here. The north dry, cold and frosty

Member 12     850hpa temp -10.7

The beast from the east unleashed here with frequent snow showers in the east and some making it further west at times.

Member 20     850hpa temp -11.0

Another high pressure ridge situation with frost, cold and freezing fog most likely here. With the coldest uppers of the selection then could have the lowest minimums of all 6 close to average ensemble options.

Mildest doom and gloom chart from the GFS 06z

Member 5     +342 hours     850hpa temp 10.4

That is one horror chart for winter as far as 850hpa temperatures are concerned. However generally high pressure dominated so could be a repeat of February 2019 with very high daytime maximums then potential frosts overnight.

Coldest fantasy chart from the GFS 06z

Member 15     +324 and 384 hours     850hpa temp -13.9

Member 15 gets double honours here as it shares both coldest 850hpa temperatures of -13.9 at 324 hours and 384 hours away

324 hours away

Member 15 here gets 2 shots at the joint minimum 850hpa temperature. This first shot sees a beasterly getting going across southern UK whilst the north is more under the influence of the high pressure. Snow showers packing into eastern England at this stage. The cold generally continues on after this until the end of the run when the other minimum 850hpa temperature is achieved

384 hours away

By 384 hours away we have lost the beasterly but we have very cold uppers under high pressure. This is likely to produce some very cold overnight minimums and should be challenging the coldest night of the winter so far if this came off and potentially in some favoured locations date minimum records, monthly records or even all time minimum records.

 

[birdman]

58 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

Could we pin this to the top of every page on the MOD thread and leave it there forever? It's so much easier to refer those hyperventilating over permutation 34 at day 9 to this invaluable advice rather than explain how it all works.....again.

There should be a seperate thread for the FI timeframe nonsense! Would massively improve the quality of this one. 

[lassie23]

42 minutes ago, Alexis said:

Ah, it wouldn't be winter without two models going for serious cold and the third one stubbornly refusing!

Is the odd one out usually correct?

[Lord Grogon]

To conclude my (rather pointless) 24 hour research project into “That ECM”, I am pleased to say that I finally found the thread. Thank you to ThatECM for your help in the end. 
I realise this is not relevant and I promise never to post here again on the subject.

As a final gesture, below is the ECM 12z at T192 from 5 Dec 2012 that started the biggest forum meltdown in the history of Netweather.

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Lord Grogon

[sunnijim]

1 minute ago, Lord Grogon said:

To conclude my (rather pointless) 24 hour research project into “That ECM”, I am pleased to say that I finally found the thread. Thank you to ThatECM for you help in the end. 
I realise this is not relevant and I promise never to post here again in the subject.

As a final gesture, below is the ECM 12z at T192 that started the biggest forum meltdown in the history of Netweather.

 

To continue my obsession with the balance of probability, would love to know what the mogreps,decider,M.O outlook and our  other friends on the free to view models were calling for a that time?

[Sweatyman]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Beeb will use EC det.

I doubt very much they are using UKMO model if they are projecting 6 degrees.

And for the fools that believe the Countryfile forecast.. Ive found that hopeless countless times.

[Frosty.]

Perhaps I have more faith in the Gem than some others?..hmmmm..anyway my love for the gem continues...I adore this Canadian model as long as it shows cold?...yeah, get a room frosty..     

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Snowman.]

30 minutes ago, birdman said:

There should be a seperate thread for the FI timeframe nonsense! Would massively improve the quality of this one. 

Usually it just ends up with one thread completely dead and the other extremely active. It has been semi-tried with one thready being model discussion and another being a cold chase.

Who would dictate where FI starts? Too many logistics to work out, FI is still model discussion and the regionals are for weather closer to the current day. Current thread is fine you dont have to read every post you can just skip them.

Edited January 31, 2021 by Snowman.

[northwestsnow]

On a brighter note I doubt we will have to wait until 6.30 pm to know whether its hoorah Henry or downbeat Doris 

UKMO will be out for 4pm.

That will reveal all.

[TSNWK]

7 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Hello. Definition of quality is? For some it's FI and looking at possible outcomes, for some it's trends, for some it's a form of escapism away from life's realities even more so this year. Me personally I love the fast pace in winter when the runs are rolling and something might be brewing, the drama, the wit and knowledge that is quality to me.. we truly are blessed to have this broad range of input and we can also make a choice for ourselves and self police by placing on ignore any poster that are not to ones quality preferences..