South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Biggin]

31 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Met office going for it now I see on their YT Channel.so why were the text forecasts earlier only talking about wintry showers,could be some serious lake-effect snow on the Eastern side of kent  and Essex next week.Warnings will be issued in a few days if these charts continue to upgrade almost a certainty.

Thames Streamer is the dogs and almost nailed on. Bear in mind  most model wont have any idea about  a TS yet.

 

 

(Note to self )  Calm down Steve

[Speedbird]

13 minutes ago, Biggin said:

Thames Streamer is the dogs and almost nailed on. Bear in mind  most model wont have any idea about  a TS yet.

 

 

(Note to self )  Calm down Steve

Don't worry Steve, it's easy to get carried away - i turned 50 a few months back but i've never lost the excitement in snowfall

[MAF]

3 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

Don't worry Steve, it's easy to get carried away - i turned 50 a few months back but i've never lost the excitement in snowfall

too much cold kills it for me  

[Speedbird]

Just now, MAF said:

too much cold kills it for me  

[Coopsy]

Just one area of concern for the upcoming cold spell for this run the SE to watch out for ...the warm uppers just to the south of the UK potentially nudging north - just one to watch 

[alexisj9]

18 minutes ago, Coopsy said:

Just one area of concern for the upcoming cold spell for this run the SE to watch out for ...the warm uppers just to the south of the UK potentially nudging north - just one to watch 

Happened two years ago, had ice rain here while everyone else had snow, and it transitioned to snow later.

[clark3r]

I suspect models will dilute the cold in the next few days, hope I’m wrong 

[Captain Shortwave]

Quite a set of runs this afternoon. Hopefully they will still be there this time tomorrow.

Still clear skies here in the north of the region and a widespread air frost already with temperatures below freezing.

[jamesgold]

We just need to see the charts upgrade enough that they still downgrade to a good level. Still not convinced for us in the south but if it goes right then I think a lot of people may end up a bit jealous of what we’d see...

[Wimbledon88]

Just seen the extended outook on the beeb. They are not in the slightest bit interested in cold snowy weather for SE weekend into early next week. Colder yes but 5c in London with rain. Warming up then midweek. Thats METEO/BBC take on it. 

Edited February 1, 2021 by Wimbledon88
Typo

[Ian Docwra]

53 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

The auto generated BBC forecasts for here this weekend and next week are hilarious. Just snow all day.

Lovely to see hopefully something comes of it at least.

Showing light snow for Southend for three days but hardly touching 0C - more often in the 1-3C range.

[jamesgold]

2 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Just seen the extended outook on the beeb. They are not in the slightest bit interested in cold snowy weather for SE weekend into early next week. Colder yes but 5c in London with rain. Warming up then midweek. Thats METEO/BBC take on it. 

That’ll be using todays 0z ECM run I think. If tomorrow’s 0z is anything like today’s 12z expect there to be quite a difference in that forecast. I know the point has been made already but it’s crazy that they take their charts from just one model, like they didn’t even hint at any “uncertainty” or anything which is surprising

[E17boy]

6 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Just seen the extended outook on the beeb. They are not in the slightest bit interested in cold snowy weather for SE weekend into early next week. Colder yes but 5c in London with rain. Warming up then midweek. Thats METEO/BBC take on it. 

I just watched that forcast as well talk about dampening the mood again. This is still far from sorted, so much ch time for it to go bust also so much time for it to upgrade, but BBC forcast you do my head in . 

[Snowy Bob]

19 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Happened two years ago, had ice rain here while everyone else had snow, and it transitioned to snow later.

Remember that, went to a cremation up Barham, was an absolute ice-rink, then made the sensible decision to go back into Folkestone and got a train to Dover for the wake. 

Trains were sporadic as you would expect. 

Snow was gone by time the next day arrived. Urgh.

As for what is to come, it's rather bittersweet if I'm honest. We have the vaccine centre down here in the centre of Folkestone, so there is a part of me (a substantial adult part of me) that doesn't want this upcoming cold spell to cause delays or disruption in that most important of work.

The child in me, wants blizzards and lake effect snow. Damn it.

Edited February 1, 2021 by Snowy Bob

[jamesgold]

The pub run is a bit drunk, really strengthens that low beyond any realistic outcome so no reason to be too alarmed. Still a continuation of the same theme - possibly very cold here if the low is south enough

[Wimbledon88]

6 minutes ago, E17boy said:

I just watched that forcast as well talk about dampening the mood again. This is still far from sorted, so much ch time for it to go bust also so much time for it to upgrade, but BBC forcast you do my head in . 

Yes, its always a bit of a 'school lesson' type of forecast.Pictures of a flooded meadow etc. Bless. However, i find them more accurate than the met office recently. Lets see what they say tommorow. 

The one thing that makes me unconvinced about any very cold weather down is the forecast temps for northern Europe ( apart from Scandinavia). You can have easterly, beasterly or whatever this year's name for it is but if the temps in Brussels, Berlin and Amsterdam are going to be around 4c, its of no use. Just cold and dank. 

[E17boy]

4 minutes ago, jamesgold said:

The pub run is a bit drunk, really strengthens that low beyond any realistic outcome so no reason to be too alarmed. Still a continuation of the same theme - possibly very cold here if the low is south enough

Yes the 18z definately blows that low up. We are in a high risk place if that low goes further north then we will have puddles not snow. This is really doing my head in, it's only Monday and the frustratiion is already showing. It's a joke, we wait all winter for the easterlies ( which are the best for our region I reckon) and yet when they do appear, we still don't know if we will fall in line. 

Anyway I guess what's going to happen will happen, but it will be frustrating to see something that is so near but yet so far. I think it's been a long day. Tomorrow is s new dawn and there are more important things than the weather to worry about.

stay safe all

night night

[Speedbird]

13 minutes ago, jamesgold said:

The pub run is a bit drunk, really strengthens that low beyond any realistic outcome so no reason to be too alarmed. Still a continuation of the same theme - possibly very cold here if the low is south enough

The development and transition of the low just doesn't look feasible. I'm not saying it won't happen but I am far from convinced that it will.

More runs needed.

[Floatylight]

The models over the next 5 days lol

[Norfolk_N_chance]

-2.8c 

-3.5c DP

Good frost this evening here in North Norfolk

[TommyB]

Currently 5.8c in St Leonards, gradually been rising throughout the day.

[Downpour]

Is it true that MeteoGroup only use the ECM? My WeatherPro app definitely uses a blend of the big three, and it’s the same company.

[Captain Shortwave]

I wouldn’t worry too much about the swings in the models at the moment. The evolution to cold here is a lot more complex than the 2018 easterly that was effectively stratosphere led. There is increasingly cold air to our north east and the pattern evolving later this week is very unusual in itself with a trough digging a fair way into North Africa. It isn’t normal and add the tanking of the Arctic oscillation into very negative territory, expect some strange outcomes.

Personally I still think easterlies will prevail during the weekend and that cold weather could be around for quite a long time.

[yamkin]

GFS 18Z is following it's pub run namesake and going for a slight downgrade on the snow potential, but there is nothing to worry about just yet as this sort of model output is expected.

Tomorrow's ECM & UKMO will be interesting.

Wed/Thurs will be the start of the three main models firming up the synoptics for this weekend's potential BFTE set up.

[Kent Blizzard]

The ECM is a thing of beauty for the majority of us, however a good 40% chance of going Pete Tong, plenty of caution needed before we start telling family, neighbours and colleagues HA!

Look at the 850Hpa's next Tuesday!