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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's a busy time right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 

For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads. 
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Speedbird Community Regular

Speedbird

Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
Posted
3 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

Does anyone have those ECM snow depth charts? We’re going to need shovels in Eastern Scotland I think

I hope there's enough shovels to go around.

We're going to need them in the SE if that Channel low makes an appearance from next Tuesday

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

Well anther lovely run from the ECM . Snow storm at day 9

T96 to T216 ❤️

CF3B352C-3C3C-4BA7-B9B6-E5F1A6B2A0A7.png

6C124EAD-EEE9-41B8-81DE-21B643FACDE8.png

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8B18B704-FC3A-4C7F-8BCD-C75A87E277A5.png

C53F3C0A-FF20-4C24-A831-331196437CB8.png

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Speedbird Community Regular

Speedbird

Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
Posted
3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Well anther lovely run from the ECM . Snow storm at day 9

T96 to T216 ❤️

CF3B352C-3C3C-4BA7-B9B6-E5F1A6B2A0A7.png

6C124EAD-EEE9-41B8-81DE-21B643FACDE8.png

B48E0941-ECD3-4AF5-B42C-C3CCAF89FF9B.png

FD92DF2D-EFD8-4A37-A348-20905309BAAA.png

8B18B704-FC3A-4C7F-8BCD-C75A87E277A5.png

C53F3C0A-FF20-4C24-A831-331196437CB8.png

If that low for modelled for next Friday tracks about 75 miles further south then there could be some epic snow totals for the south

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supernova Community Regular

supernova

Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
Posted (edited)

Oh Lordy, this could turn into a classic spell. These snow depth charts are useless, especially in a convective Easterly set up, but it highlights the potential for most places. Anyway, snow depth in 10 days? No idea. The suggestion that there might even still be snow in ten days time interests me more!

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2021020300_228_18_108.thumb.png.bcf0e281aee82c03c8f259d951fb5516.png

Edited by supernova
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
3 minutes ago, supernova said:

Oh Lordy, this could turn into a classic spell. These snow depth charts are useless, especially in a convective Easterly set up, but it highlights the potential for most places.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2021020300_228_18_108.thumb.png.bcf0e281aee82c03c8f259d951fb5516.png

Just the metre in Scotland then

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Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, supernova said:

Oh Lordy, this could turn into a classic spell. These snow depth charts are useless, especially in a convective Easterly set up, but it highlights the potential for most places.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2021020300_228_18_108.thumb.png.bcf0e281aee82c03c8f259d951fb5516.png

Even Northern Kent gets 1.5-2.5inches, id take that but look at Sheffield area on your post 1.5foot wow!!!

Screenshot_20210203-065856_Samsung Internet.jpg

Edited by Kentspur
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Speedbird Community Regular

Speedbird

Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
Posted
1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

Even Northern Kent gets 1.5-2.5inches, id take that but look at Sheffield area on your post 1.5foot wow!!!

Screenshot_20210203-065856_Samsung Internet.jpg

Those totals don't reflect convective snowfall. Could be significantly greater than that app shows.

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Aaron Roberts Contributor

Aaron Roberts

Posted
  • Location: Near hubberton, 240m
  • Location: Near hubberton, 240m
Posted

As amazing as it all is, in the upland parts of northern England and Scotland we really struggle with any wind in an easterly. The drifting up here is horrendous in an Easterly. . . . Although it still gets me more excited ! 

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Exceptionally snowy run from the 00z ECM away from the far south where the onshore flows always cause issues. 

Personally, I'd like the low just a smidge south of where it is, as it is very marginal for southern counties at several points, and we could easily see snow-rain events down here based on that run, but can't deny it looks great for a large chunk of the country!

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Roger J Smith Maestro

Roger J Smith

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
Posted

If meteociel continues to have problems loading, try wetterzentrale.de, model choices are on your left on home page, loading for me was 1-2 sec.

Now that I posted this, maybe wetterzentrale will crash next. 

My take on model suite at 00z is that cold easterly is about 80% likely, duration may be 3-?? days, most likely days for full impact are Sunday to Wednesday. As several have noted, south coast not always favoured with somewhat marginal cold (too close to transient lows at times). Further north looks very wintry on most guidance. The 00z GFS ops was more like modified cold at best, but some ensemble members similar to the rest of the guidance. Can't ask for a lot more at this stage. 

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Popular Post
Posted

Absolutely breath taking runs! 

Dialled in now for anyone midlands North!

For the south much better than yesterday but still very close for comfort.

I hope things correct more south as those of you in the South East have been very unlucky all winter and id like to share some of the snow!

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
1 minute ago, Dave Kightley said:

Hmmm get  lows further south...

I think we are set good here.. the lows in question are from day 6 / 7 onwards just need bro correct south by 100 or miles.. we all know that as a rule things correct south.

I would not be surprised to see them end up going through Biscay.. 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Popular Post
Posted

These latest 0z runs are even better than 24 little hours ago in terms of longevity and severity of the upcoming very wintery spell, it all really kicks off from Sunday pretty much nationwide...these are very exciting times if you’re a coldie!!  

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
1 hour ago, Kentspur said:

Anyone know which model Two Outlook use its gone full circle from a snow fest to nothing yesterday and now several days of snow even here. I'm thinking GFS considering the chopping and changing lately unless it's a blend?

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GFS  

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Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Popular Post
Posted
9 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Exceptionally snowy run from the 00z ECM away from the far south where the onshore flows always cause issues. 

Personally, I'd like the low just a smidge south of where it is, as it is very marginal for southern counties at several points, and we could easily see snow-rain events down here based on that run, but can't deny it looks great for a large chunk of the country!

I live close to the south coast and I,m happy with the run because the lows are pushing into a dry continental feed aloft very 78 Feb stylee this run.

 

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Tim Brawn Newbie

Tim Brawn

Posted
  • Location: Sandbach
  • Location: Sandbach
Posted

I don't comment often as I'm bemused week after week just how wrong the forecasts are when it comes to snow. But can somebody explain how much of the country is going to be buried and yet the 10 day outlook predicts virtually bone dry in by an 

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sunnijim Seasoned

sunnijim

Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
Posted (edited)

Certainly a massive improvement as far as the longevity and countrywide nature of this cold spell is concerned.

The South-East the biggest beneficiary compared to the last couple of days.

The Weekend Low clears quickly enough for us to join the cold party too with attendant snow risks to follow.

What is now signposted for the middle of next week is a new idea with Scandi heights meaning the active Atlantic troughs slide...A work in progress and no point getting hung up on that just yet!

Edited by sunnijim
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

These latest 0z runs are even better than 24 little hours ago in terms of longevity and severity of the upcoming very wintery spell, it all really kicks off from Sunday pretty much nationwide...these are very exciting times if you’re a coldie!!  

I'd say it's not nationwide. Mainly for the midlands north, the south could well miss out again going on the ensembles...

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WelfordRd Enthusiast

WelfordRd

Posted
  • Location: Hinckley
  • Location: Hinckley
Posted

Quick question, I keep hearing the term Midlands Northwards. The Midlands is a big place so wheres the line northwards. Warwick, Birmingham, Derby. Just trying to gauge where the line is? 

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