model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Frosty.]

Quick mention about the ICON 0z…not too shabby!  

 

[BrickFielder]

Blocking High over or near the UK looks set to be stubbornly in place giving a cool northerly air feed for next week.

High then modelled to shift West which would tend to give an even more direct cold air feed although with less cloud. Hurricane Ida about to clobber New Orleans might scupper this as it leaves the US and goes extra tropical. 

Modelling then has high moving South over the UK whilst Greenland High recedes North. This suggests we might get a week or so of late summer warmth.

Further out then Pacific blocking is forecast and this tends to give the UK a warmth wet mobile pattern. Given the amount of blocked weather patterns this year I would have very low confidence on this suggestion.

 

Ensembles show that confidence is pretty low in any of this being true beyond the next few days. So looks all a bit fantasy island (FI) .

[Frosty.]

Ok gang I gotta admit towards mid September it might be more unsettled according to the GEFS 6z?…..but…before then.. it could be more settled than unsettled.. ..if that makes sense?…wow, I’m probably talking to myself anyway so it probably doesn’t matter..oh yeah and Arsenal lost 5-0.. I’m so happy..yes I’m a Spurs fan !  

 

Edited August 28, 2021 by jon snow

[Frosty.]

I don’t think it’s too much of an exaggeration to say the 6z ensembles go a bit mental longer term?..there’s certainly an autumnal vibe there..just to keep balanced?  

 

[Mike Poole]

ICON 12z T144 looks good, and by T180 has pulled the high (although with reduced pressure) east, bringing a welcome warmer feed.

Ex-tropical storm out there to the SW!  If the high does decrease in intensity, and drift east, there is potential for one of these beasties to deliver an unexpected plume in September I think.

[Mike Poole]

UKMO 12z, here’s the T120 and T144:

At first look it seems quite a change between the 2 charts, and similar on ICON earlier, but some of it is down to the colours on Meteociel, actually the T144 sets up a better pattern in my view than the one we have had for the last week, transitioning to more an Azores ridge extension, so maybe the sun will shine on more of us…all good!

[Mike Poole]

GFS follows the recent trend to a more Azores extended ridge scenario, portends a really nice start to September and no sign to me in the reliable of any breakdown, GFS T192, T276:

GEM T204, same scenario, larger scale but a bit of a heat low in there…

I think those who were predicting a return to unsettled as we go through September should think again, for me, it is going in the opposite direction!

Edit, nice spot at the GEM T240:

Edited August 28, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Mike Poole]

Very happy with this from the GEFS ensemble mean at T192:

On this afternoons output I think a return to any Atlantic influence is nullified, if it was even there in there in the first place - let’s face it, the Atlantic hasn’t had a look in since November last year….can this situation hold another 4 months?  Yes it can!!!!

Seem to be talking to myself tonight…so HELLO MIKE

Edited August 28, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Seem to be talking to myself tonight…so HELLO MIKE

Join the club..hello frosty! 

12z mods look good..oops ..I mean models.. bring it on, whatever that may be!  

[Mike Poole]

Just now, jon snow said:

Join the club..hello frosty! 

12z mods look good..oops ..I mean models.. bring it on, whatever that may be!  

Yep, Karl, don’t know what the mods actually look like, so can’t comment on that, but as far as the models are concerned, I think we’re heading for a more optimistic, warm and settled September, which, let’s face it, they often are - for me the most reliable month for settled weather. 

[MP-R]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yep, Karl, don’t know what the mods actually look like, so can’t comment on that, but as far as the models are concerned, I think we’re heading for a more optimistic, warm and settled September, which, let’s face it, they often are - for me the most reliable month for settled weather. 

Bit misleading, let's keep our expectations in check, but I agree - the start of September at least is looking absolutely fine, and I think we can pretty much guarantee settled until the 05th, and perhaps as far as the 08th-10th. Beyond that though, the models have toyed with low pressure moving up from the south as well as in from the west, so all to play for.

I wonder if we'll have an autumn of the Atlantic frequently disrupting through the UK with sinking lows. That would be an encouraging sign for the silly season.

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yep, Karl, don’t know what the mods actually look like, so can’t comment on that, but as far as the models are concerned, I think we’re heading for a more optimistic, warm and settled September, which, let’s face it, they often are - for me the most reliable month for settled weather. 

You’re doing a great job Mike, keep the flag flying, it’s been a quiet day..for some reason?…I love it when it’s busy on here, hate it when it’s dead! 

[Mike Poole]

20 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Bit misleading, let's keep our expectations in check, but I agree - the start of September at least is looking absolutely fine, and I think we can pretty much guarantee settled until the 05th, and perhaps as far as the 08th-10th. Beyond that though, the models have toyed with low pressure moving up from the south as well as in from the west, so all to play for.

I wonder if we'll have an autumn of the Atlantic frequently disrupting through the UK with sinking lows. That would be an encouraging sign for the silly season.

Yes, the start of September is looking fine, and the rest is FI, so I agree that is speculation, but then you have to factor in things like the MO contingency planners forecast, which is going huge for a warm early autumn.  So I think the models for later September will correct to a settled regime. 

Winter?  I will have plenty to say about that, but now is not the time…I can’t see a single negative signal for winter in what info is available at this very early timescale right now.   A lot will depend on how autumn pans out over the whole NH.  We will see…

Edited August 28, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

For sure I wouldn’t mind P28!   …actually there’s a few stonkers in the GEFS 12z to keep the summery flag flying proudly into early autumn!…of course, it could easily turn autumnal  but I think there’s still evidence that summer won’t be finished with us, even well into early September!!!!!  

Edited August 28, 2021 by jon snow

[MP-R]

19 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, the start of September is looking fine, and the rest is FI, so I agree that is speculation, but then you have to factor in things like the MO contingency planners forecast, which is going huge for a warm early autumn.  So I think the models for later September will correct to a settled regime. 

 

I'd agree if not for La Nina, which promotes the exact opposite. If we can manage a settled month overall, not only would we be doing extremely well, I'd also be very pleased indeed! 7 years since the last one! 

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, MP-R said:

I'd agree if not for La Nina, which promotes the exact opposite. If we can manage a settled month overall, not only would we be doing extremely well, I'd also be very pleased indeed! 7 years since the last one! 

Do you mean La Niña effect on winter or autumn?  If autumn, then I don’t think it will be an issue, AAM forecasts well up, away from La Niña area, according to CFS:

Says settled September for the whole month to me.  

La Niña into winter, well that’s for a later conversation I think…

Edited August 28, 2021 by Mike Poole

[MP-R]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Do you mean La Niña effect on winter or autumn?  

On autumn. One would expect something more like this:

The effects on winter are generally helpful if cold is your thing, if remaining weak (more so for December and January), but La Nina autumns tend to serve up wetter earlier autumns and drier colder later autumns like 2017. Not a hard and fast rule but generally.

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, MP-R said:

On autumn. One would expect something more like this:

The effects on winter are generally helpful if cold is your thing, if remaining weak (more so for December and January), but La Nina autumns tend to serve up wetter earlier autumns and drier colder later autumns like 2017. Not a hard and fast rule but generally.

Yes, as above (admittedly edited post, sorry!), I don’t think the atmosphere is in a La Niña state going into autumn.  It is predicted to become stronger in winter, but at the moment I don’t see this as a problem for winter.

[MP-R]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, as above (admittedly edited post, sorry!), I don’t think the atmosphere is in a La Niña state going into autumn.  It is predicted to become stronger in winter, but at the moment I don’t see this as a problem for winter.

Hopefully not too strong, and hopefully won't linger through next year as that would really not help summer. But hey ho, I won't clog up the thread any longer. Winter will of course be discussed ad nauseum later into autumn lol.

In the here and now, a continuation of August's conditions into the start of September looks a good bet. Somewhat atypical conditions for the time of year but at least very usable conditions if not completely sunny all the time. Any warm or heat ups of course will come with the risk of a breakdown given the nature of such events.

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Hopefully not too strong, and hopefully won't linger through next year as that would really not help summer. But hey ho, I won't clog up the thread any longer. Winter will of course be discussed ad nauseum later into autumn lol.

In the here and now, a continuation of August's conditions into the start of September looks a good bet. Somewhat atypical conditions for the time of year but at least very usable conditions if not completely sunny all the time. Any warm or heat ups of course will come with the risk of a breakdown given the nature of such events.

Yes, agreed, bar any curveballs thrown by ex-tropical storms, of course….

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, agreed, bar any curveballs thrown by ex-tropical storms, of course….

Indeed Mike, of course the hurricane season is now in full swing so we have to be aware that if any get into the North Atlantic sector..all bets are off..model confusion will be rampant! 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, jon snow said:

Indeed Mike, of course the hurricane season is now in full swing so we have to be aware that if any get into the North Atlantic sector..all bets are off..model confusion will be rampant! 

Yes, Karl, we have seen it many times before, the one that sticks in my mind, was Ex-hurricane Ophelia - I had to explain to my work colleagues why the sky had suddenly gone a really weird shade of yellow and the sun was blood red.  Happy days!…compared to the way the world is now.  

[Mike Poole]

ECM seems to be stuck at T192, but here’s the forecast from there:

JMA seems happy with that to T264:

What’s not to like?

[Frosty.]

Oh my days, the ecm 12z op shows some lovely stuff… I wish it could be stuck on T+120 hours forever  !!

 

 

 

[Frosty.]

Listen very carefully, I shall say this only once, the T+240 ECM 12z op screams potential for another Azores high summery spell! …why is it so dead in here..has someone died?  

Edited August 28, 2021 by jon snow