model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Gem looking good...warm uppers across the UK..and a noticeable cold pool across Greenland  

[Frosty.]

The ICON 12z is also set fair and again, as with the Ukmo the position of the high improves with that nagging cool feeling NE’ly wind gradually snuffed out with improving 850’s (uppers) and I would think much more widespread sunshine! ..das icon ist gut Ja? 

[Frosty.]

Well I won’t beat about the bush, the Gfs 12z op wasn’t the best was it???wow so diplomatic frosty! …but anyway, the mean looks better and there’s still a fair deal of support for a largely settled early September, I should also mention that the GEFS 12z has some very warm potential including plumes..something I would be happy about!…

 

[Frosty.]

Just looked at the Cfs 6z and it’s quite astonishing, pretty much the whole of September is settled…but it does become a bit more unsettled at times in October! 

[sheikhy]

Dont take look at the ecm between 192 and 240 hours!!southerly tracking lows back in with vengeance!!!

[Frosty.]

The ECM 12z operational, for the most part is anticyclonic but it becomes more unsettled later, I guess this shouldn’t be too much of a surprise given how the Gfs 12z op evolved?…so, perhaps early September will see a change but at least the first few days of autumn look settled….anyway, let’s wait and see?  

[stodge]

Evening all

Again, just a quick glance at the evening output but the Greenland heights are hugely influential keeping the jet (as it is) to the south and suppressing any push of Azores HP. 

However, as you might expect, a lot of options on the table in the mid to long range - T+216 500s:

ECM, JMA, GEM, GFS OP and GFS Control from the 12Z output.

You pays your money....etc.

We spoke about the possible breakdown the other evening - just some of the possibilities. 

[sheikhy]

Hold on ecm op run seems a massive outlier compared to the mean!!the mean has high over us all the way through to the end and maybe even signs of reinvigorating thereafter!!!

[Frosty.]

Compared to the op, the ECM 12z ensemble mean looks settled / anticyclonic throughout…as I keep saying, stick to the mean..and anomalies..anyway, the mean suits me sir!! 

 

Edited August 26, 2021 by jon snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I will give you some idea later this evening when the EC46 runs..surface details will be impossible at that range,but perhaps I will have some idea regarding the pressure patterns. But at this range,it could be way out.

Ok @sparky1972...just to add some weight to this for you..I will take a punt at it for you....Tonight's EC46 keeps us largely settled through till the 9th of September...Low pressure influence becomes a bigger player from the NW beyond this.. more unsettled with some wet weather and stronger winds at times,and this will be more noticeable towards the NW..There are tentative signs of a recovery in pressure towards the South,come the final 3rd of the month! With the possibility of much better conditions as we close the end of it. All along way off..but that's how it's looking for now.

[Downburst]

Well, we are in no mans land for most of September. I guess it won’t be a dry month or a cold month. But it won’t be a wet or warm month. I think it will be average. So wet and dry days, classical weather. 
 

[Frosty.]

For sure, I’m very happy with the Ukmo 0h trend this morning, the high to the NW gradually drifts SE to become centred over the u k, thus cutting off the cloudier cooler NE’ly flow to those areas currently affected (becoming sunnier more widely) with the uppers (850’s) improving significantly too, in other words, becoming more summery into the start of September!  

 

Edited August 27, 2021 by jon snow

[Frosty.]

It should also be noted that the GEFS 0z mean continues the anticyclonic theme into early September, indeed it’s strengthened from the Azores!…this is in stark contrast to the operational which becomes more changeable…I will stick with the mean!! 

Edited August 27, 2021 by jon snow

[Methuselah]

The GFS 00Z operational is still mostly dominated by HP; and, with luck, the overall pattern will become more favourable for us gloom-ridden southeasterners:

    

    

    

    

PS: Can it get any less favourable!

Edited August 27, 2021 by Ed Stone

[bluearmy]

Another week or so of blocking assured and then a transition to a less settled period or a brief intermission of less settled ?? 
 

the 46 seems to think less settled period with the jet on our latitude again.  If euro heights can recover then that could mean a more traditional nw/se split …..

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, jon snow said:

For sure, I’m very happy with the Ukmo 0h trend this morning, the high to the NW gradually drifts SE to become centred over the u k, thus cutting off the cloudier cooler NE’ly flow to those areas currently affected (becoming sunnier more widely) with the uppers (850’s) improving significantly too, in other words, becoming more summery into the start of September!  

 

UKMO certainly looks good this morning to eventually rid us of this wretched E/NE flow. I know it's been nice in the west, but this should result in widespread good weather. With warm upper air it should be very nice (if the cloud does disappear that is).

[mb018538]

With a bit of a delay - ECM does bring in more widely unsettled conditions into September - though it should stay mainly fine for the UK through most of the first week.

[Frosty.]

For sure, the ECM 0z operational, for the most part, is anticyclonic, indeed it becomes warmer too as the high slowly drifts ESE across the u k and transfers to the east and then pressure slowly falls….I would take a guess that it then becomes more humid with an increasing chance of thundery showers?…anyone agree? 

 

Edited August 27, 2021 by jon snow

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

With a bit of a delay - ECM does bring in more widely unsettled conditions into September - though it should stay mainly fine for the UK through most of the first week.

As predicted, perfect timing for my golf weekend. Still after such a wretched summer at least the models are giving us a decent two dry spell. Looks like the dry conditions will last through most of the first tercile of September. 

[sheikhy]

Even though ecm turns slightly less settled after 192 hours it is still a mainly dry run for most till the end!!

[Frosty.]

On the face of it, I would say the ECM 0z ensemble mean indicates largely settled conditions persist well into early September, especially across the s / se…broad brush of course as it’s the mean!  

[Frosty.]

No sniggering at the back there …..but the CFS 0z is looking pretty settled and increasingly warm well into early September! 

[sheikhy]

19 minutes ago, jon snow said:

No sniggering at the back there …..but the CFS 0z is looking pretty settled and increasingly warm well into early September! 

 

What bout the gfs 06z mate?!!

[Northwest NI]

On 27/08/2021 at 08:15, mb018538 said:

UKMO certainly looks good this morning to eventually rid us of this wretched E/NE flow. I know it's been nice in the west, but this should result in widespread good weather. With warm upper air it should be very nice (if the cloud does disappear that is).

That little low out to west should steer up towards Iceland without impacting our in situ high. In your last pic can see greens hitting western Ireland though

[Frosty.]

27 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

What bout the gfs 06z mate?!!

It turns into a mixed bag similar to the 0z…much prefer the CFS!