model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Methuselah]

Not a bad GFS 12Z:     

                                       

                                       

And the GEFS 12Z ensembles don't look bad at all:

                                     

I'm not at all interested in ENSO just now, as I suspect the vagaries of the Atlantic hurricane season will have a much greater impact on our weather, this side of Christmas?

[mushymanrob]

Not quite on board for an anticyclonic spell next week. Slight positive pressure over the UK with slight ridging to our east, but quite a moderate upper westerly flow or just south of west. Suggests unsettled, but not overly so. Probably NW/SE split, and overall rather average conditions, or slightly above. lets hope it changes.
 

[Methuselah]

With all the 'potential' for ex-hurricanes exerting their influence, I don't trust the models just now but, anyway, the GFS 00Z isnae too bad, as far as it goes:

    

    

    

So, anything but cut-and-dried, if the GEFS ensembles are much to go by:

    

 

[Downburst]

Should squeeze The settled weather through Saturday. Next Monday’s looking very wet. 

northern Scotland staying dry though. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Hope your enjoying your Bank Holidays..

There may be some hints of less settled conditions come later next weekend...but the GFS 6z is not really keen on the idea..it becomes an absolute peach! With High pressure in a much more favourable position! Trend setter...or will the 12s drop the idea! Uncertainty will become  big player over the next week.

Live it large folks.

[MP-R]

Classic GFS v ECM at the moment. Next weekend looking like a crucial point between whether a shallow trough fills and allows a pressure rebuild (GFS), or whether it becomes the dominant feature and ushers in the Atlantic (ECM). I'd prefer the GFS solution, but would probably back the ECM solution given the tendency for such situations this summer. Could be a lovely warm start to September though!

[Mike Poole]

Looking at today’s output, I think the GEM 12z seems to be a pretty average bet as to the way forward, high pressure pulling east as it declines, the low descending, with ridging over the top followed by a resurgent Azores ridge:

[Mike Poole]

Breaking news!  The one thing I have missed since the Meteociel fire, and so wanted back in time for winter, is the archive charts.  It’s back!  And goes back to 1836 now:

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240, definitely worth looking at this one on NH view:

Fledgling vortex taking up residence in Greenland, so as the next push from the Azores occurs, it is cut off from expanding into Greenland and will probably deliver a usual NW (unsettled) / SE (settled) split.  Reversal of fortunes you might say…

[mb018538]

16 minutes ago, Bogman said:

No posts since last night, says it all really.

Can’t be bothered at the moment. Weather has been the same for an eternity, and about as boring as you can get for late summer. I’m looking forward to the Atlantic ploughing through and ridding us of this rancid grey weather.

[sheikhy]

It has been pretty boring grey and depressing here for over a week now!!

[ChannelThunder]

On 30/08/2021 at 09:16, mb018538 said:

Can’t be bothered at the moment. Weather has been the same for an eternity, and about as boring as you can get for late summer. I’m looking forward to the Atlantic ploughing through and ridding us of this rancid grey weather.

Indeed, nothing worse than the nothing-weather these kind of set-ups bring. It looks like a change will be happening from the weekend onwards; some good model agreement now for that.  Goodbye omega-block from Saturday.

[Polar Maritime]

Just Model Discussion in here please, Use the other thread for moaning and the likes. Thanks all.

[Newberryone]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Can’t be bothered at the moment. Weather has been the same for an eternity, and about as boring as you can get for late summer. I’m looking forward to the Atlantic ploughing through and ridding us of this rancid grey weather.

It’s been anything but rancid grey here in the Cork region. Glorious with many days of the past week bringing unbroken sunshine. Admittedly it was highly anticipated that northwestern parts would probably fair out better with regards to sunshine. The overnight Ecm run certainly seems to suggest an interruption of sorts to this settled spell come the weekend. Then again this could all change in subsequent runs owing to the high degree of uncertainty brought about by the Atlantic hurricane season. As ever, one to watch!

[ANYWEATHER]

Maybe a bit boring over here weather wise ,but look how cold Greenland is for this time of year !!!

[heath]

An early cool down for European Russia and the Baltic if this happens. 

[Eagle Eye]

Boring weather as usual no use pointing this out really:

At least most of us will have one bright day, finally. 

[mb018538]

 

Don’t think I’ve looked forward to an Atlantic low arriving as much as the one in 6 days time. Bring it on.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12Z GFS looks iffy and too good to be true, Sunday decent and dry here, Atlantic held back, my guess it's wrong

[Mike Poole]

I don’t think the position has shifted much from yesterday’s 12z runs to be honest.  A brief Atlantic incursion next weekend, followed by ridging over the north of it, and back to a settled regime (hopefully one with a slightly more advantageous wind direction!).  GFS T240, T192 (edit sorry these went in the post in not the intended order!):

GEM T192, T240:

GFS the better of the two, the GEM does have that powerball stage left.  All that is FI for the moment, but the call is a brief unsettled interlude, it might even rain, then back to settled conditions, detail to be determined.

Edited August 30, 2021 by Mike Poole

[I remember Atlantic 252]

EC looks more like it, washout Sunday, GFS will correct tomorrow, probably on 00Z, it's way out

[Mike Poole]

7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

EC looks more like it, washout Sunday, GFS will correct tomorrow, probably on 00Z, it's way out

Well the high pressure won’t ridge back over that monstrosity, so it is straight into autumn by T240:

Not buying it, not yet.  

[Mike Poole]

As expected the ECM op doesn’t sit well within the clusters T192-T240 - det in cluster 4 says the blurb, and it is, in the worst one by miles:

All of the others retain some heights in the UK region, at least, with cause for optimism of a continuing settled spell to boot.  

[mb018538]

13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

As expected the ECM op doesn’t sit well within the clusters T192-T240 - det in cluster 4 says the blurb, and it is, in the worst one by miles:

All of the others retain some heights in the UK region, at least, with cause for optimism of a continuing settled spell to boot.  

I’m more inclined to believe it’ll go down the more unsettled route. The gfs op is a big outlier tonight, and ukmo and ecm look more on the same page. Not cut and dried yet of course.

[Mike Poole]

Just now, mb018538 said:

I’m more inclined to believe it’ll go down the more unsettled route. The gfs op is a big outlier tonight, and ukmo and ecm look more on the same page. Not cut and dried yet of course.

Yes, agreed re UKMO and ECM, that low at T144 was so much more pronounced…but the ECM ensembles don’t support it, and it is summer, lower model verification, so I don’t think it is likely that the 2 best ops have sniffed out something like they can in winter sometimes!  I’m going with the ensembles, we will see…