model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T216, well if this is what is on offer, then ECM can go do itself!  Ridiculous run…

ECM T240 you are having a giraffe:

That northerly plunge just isn’t happening folks, believe me…

[Frosty.]

Call me crazy but I would have liked to see day 11..just out of curiosity you understand!....that arctic air (522 dam) is quite extraordinary for the time of year on the ECM 12z operational!!! 

 

[Methuselah]

I like the GEFS 12Z Control:        Will it verify?

                                                                                          

[Cheshire Freeze]

Purely entertainment value but that is one hell of a northerly for the time of year lining up at the end of the EC run.

[Had Worse]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Purely entertainment value but that is one hell of a northerly for the time of year lining up at the end of the EC run.

That would or could be a very juicy squall line.

Anyway, I digress... quiet settled and useable weather for now.

[minus10]

Omega blocks as with this current set up tend to stick around for some time as I understand...

So I would think that the day 9/10 on the ecm 12z will 'evolve' more to this type of arrangement...certainly retrogression seems unlikely as shown by the 12z currently.....(he says )

Edited August 25, 2021 by minus10

[Frosty.]

I think it would be churlish to complain about the Gfs 0z operational…unless you hate high pressure? It’s pretty much an anticyclonic run, there’s plenty of sunshine, plenty of warmth and most of any rain is later in the run and mostly restricted to Scotland…with charts like these in September..what’s not to like?! 

Edited August 26, 2021 by jon snow

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, jon snow said:

I think it would be churlish to complain about the Gfs 0z operational…unless you hate high pressure? It’s pretty much an anticyclonic run, there’s plenty of sunshine, plenty of warmth and most of any rain is later in the run and mostly restricted to Scotland…with charts like these in September..what’s not to like?! 

Bank! That 28C is pretty much on top of where I’m playing golf on that day! 

[Methuselah]

After what seems like months of waiting for a stable HP, now we can't get rid of one quick enough:

    

    

    

Edited August 26, 2021 by Ed Stone

[sheikhy]

Again as you were this morning!!all 3 models bone dry till the end of their runs!!!!wiked stuff!!!!love a dry september/october!!cant go wrong lol!!need this cloud to bugger off though!!this will be 3rd day of full cloud cover if it sticks around all day today!!depressing!!

[Methuselah]

18 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Again as you were this morning!!all 3 models bone dry till the end of their runs!!!!wiked stuff!!!!love a dry september/october!!cant go wrong lol!!need this cloud to bugger off though!!this will be 3rd day of full cloud cover if it sticks around all day today!!depressing!!

Only SIXTEEN exclamation marks, @sheikhy? Come on, man? Wakey! Wakey!

Anywho, anyone think the GEFS 00Z operational run will verify? 

    

Edited August 26, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Frosty.]

The ECM 0z op is mostly anticyclonic but day 10 shows signs of change unless the Azores high can subsequently build NE again beyond T+240 to thwart the impudent Atlantic!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

[johnholmes]

My latest view of the 500 mb anomaly charts and their effect on our surface weather

Thursday 26 August update

Ec=the closed circulation ridge is now replaced with ridging towards Greenland from the uk area?, a weak trough area just east of the azores. UK is very weak w’ly flow with the weak ridge mentioned previously.

Noaa=over the past few days the 6-10 has gradually gone from its very marked ridge/+ve heights just nnw of the uk to what is seen now. Still quite marked +ve heights slightly further s but about a similar longitude to the last few days. The uk is shown in a total lack of contour lines ridged area, with a slight suggestion of a trough beneath this along with small –ve anomaly off Iberia.

What does this mean for surface weather? Status quo to start really, the surface high position crucial to who gets cloud rather than sun, dry of course. With time, and looking at the 8-14 chart, consistent over the past few days, then some kind of return to a less settled pattern with a weak westerly seems the most likely, say in the 10-14 day period. No major Atlantic influence though, unless an ex tropical storm gets caught up in the north atlantic flow!

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

[damianslaw]

37 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

My latest view of the 500 mb anomaly charts and their effect on our surface weather

Thursday 26 August update

Ec=the closed circulation ridge is now replaced with ridging towards Greenland from the uk area?, a weak trough area just east of the azores. UK is very weak w’ly flow with the weak ridge mentioned previously.

Noaa=over the past few days the 6-10 has gradually gone from its very marked ridge/+ve heights just nnw of the uk to what is seen now. Still quite marked +ve heights slightly further s but about a similar longitude to the last few days. The uk is shown in a total lack of contour lines ridged area, with a slight suggestion of a trough beneath this along with small –ve anomaly off Iberia.

What does this mean for surface weather? Status quo to start really, the surface high position crucial to who gets cloud rather than sun, dry of course. With time, and looking at the 8-14 chart, consistent over the past few days, then some kind of return to a less settled pattern with a weak westerly seems the most likely, say in the 10-14 day period. No major Atlantic influence though, unless an ex tropical storm gets caught up in the north atlantic flow!

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

Standard early September fayre. Often starts calm and anticyclonic before a gradual change to more unsettled from the west.. this synoptical evolution seems one you can bank on most years. However the current set up late Auguat is quite abnormal. Rare to see long drawn NE flow at this time of year suggesting we are in a rather abnormal state.. 

[Eagle Eye]

This could be a coincidence but I think that maybe the Hurricane in the Gulf might have a small hidden effect, either that or their will be a pretty big change possible due to he jet stream seemingly being rebooted,sorry for the messy wah that I have talked here and how this is set up but this was a brief idea early in the morning, often mine Int he morning are well wrong. 

The possible Major Hurricane in the Gulf seems to set on a knock-on effect allowing for the northern hemisphere jet stream to wake from its slumber. 

1st As the tropical storm/Hurricane approaches the South Coast of the USA this is the jet stream, very disorganised, the Hurricane has not made an effect yet. 

2)The Hurricane has now moved north weakening but the lag is in effect as you will see with the next ones. 

3) Seemingly set in motion by the Hurricane perhaps when it was at it's strongest and there was a lag which I suspect that what is happening here is the effect of what I'm talking about here. I'm definitly an amateur but this does seem to be the talk of the town recently abnout what tropical storms can do to affect our weather, later I will also talk about what the African wave might do to coincide with this. 

4)The vortex is well in motion by now, a wave of American air is being sent our way. 

I am beggining to suspect this is all normal and nothing to do with another strong Hurricane season much like 2020 but I've gone through all this trouble to make this post and so much doubt that I hope it actually is connected lol. 

GEM does seem to make something through Africa with warmer air transferring up later on. 

This post is probably nonsense but this is my opinion and I'll do a better post, hopefully accurate later. 

[Methuselah]

Looking through today's GFS 06Z run, I'm guessing we'll be seeing quite a sharp temperature gradient developing this autumn?

    

    

    

 

[Frosty.]

I like the Ukmo 0h trend with the high gradually building in over the u k and the 850’s improving too! 

[Frosty.]

Just a comment on the ECM 0z ensemble mean, it’s pretty decent actually, high pressure / strong ridging throughout with the unsettled much cooler stuff kept well at bay to the NE, this I feel would bode well for a continuation of the generally quiet weather well into early September, at least further s / se. 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The Gem is a Diamond.

10 days of High Pressure controlled conditions.

I said yesterday perhaps more favourable cloud breaks in the Midlands...well I got my wish...and why its impossible to predict surface conditions days in advance with this set up! Cloudy one day...sunny the next.

 

 

[Methuselah]

There's a lot of downstream scatter on the GEFS 06Z ensembles. Upcoming hurricane remnants? 

    

[MP-R]

Quite liking the look of the models from a dry and settled point of view - looks like September starting where August left off, at least until the schools return, then the all too familiar deterioration from the Atlantic. So much easier to sustain high pressure into September when such a pattern is already established. CFS looks the favourite to keep the settled theme going for longest at the moment (no surprise there!)

   

[sparky1972]

good afternoon all, well i have to say im enjoying this settled spell, although a bit more sunshine would be nice, lol,  when will we see what weather we might get come 16th to 20th Sept, have our lads weekend to Goodwood for the revival motor racing weekend and hoping i might get some sort of early warning of what weather we will be blessed with.   thanks all.

[Frosty.]

The Ukmo 12h looks set fair and if anything, the position of the high gradually improves longer term with better 850’s (uppers) and increasing amounts of sunshine with that nagging NE’ly breeze further s / se diminishing or disappearing completely later! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

good afternoon all, well i have to say im enjoying this settled spell, although a bit more sunshine would be nice, lol,  when will we see what weather we might get come 16th to 20th Sept, have our lads weekend to Goodwood for the revival motor racing weekend and hoping i might get some sort of early warning of what weather we will be blessed with.   thanks all.

I will give you some idea later this evening when the EC46 runs..surface details will be impossible at that range,but perhaps I will have some idea regarding the pressure patterns. But at this range,it could be way out.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, jon snow said:

The Ukmo 12h looks set fair and if anything, the position of the high gradually improves longer term with better 850’s (uppers) and increasing amounts of sunshine with that nagging NE’ly breeze further s / se diminishing or disappearing completely later! 

Still looking good 12hrs on Karl.. very positive.