model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

Theres no change right through next week if this chart is to be believed. That high is anchored and is going nowhere fast. Western areas will really be having a great end to Summer/start to Autumn, but those of us who are prone to north sea cloud - which currently is a large swathe of England - my have one of the most boring periods of weather ever. Grey skies, with no guarantee that itll change. I suppose that as the high intensifies it might suppress cloud formation..

The only good thing is that itll be dry.

Already expecting dullest 2 weeks on record here, started yesterday

[Scorcher]

7 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Theres no change right through next week if this chart is to be believed. That high is anchored and is going nowhere fast. Western areas will really be having a great end to Summer/start to Autumn, but those of us who are prone to north sea cloud - which currently is a large swathe of England - my have one of the most boring periods of weather ever. Grey skies, with no guarantee that itll change. I suppose that as the high intensifies it might suppress cloud formation..

The only good thing is that itll be dry.

Not sure I agree re. cloud amounts. I think it's very hard to predict where the cloud will be exactly from day to day. At the moment it seems to be central England suffering with the cloud while other areas that you might expect to be cloudy in a NE flow are actually clear. It's been very cloudy here this morning and most of yesterday, which is more a case of bad luck than anything as we're often protected to a degree by the Pennines. Areas just north of here have done a lot better sunshine wise over the last day and a half.

We also had a very sunny day on Monday in a very similar setup. But yes unless you're in the far west there is definitely the danger of being caught under the cloud.

[mushymanrob]

10 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Not sure I agree re. cloud amounts. I think it's very hard to predict where the cloud will be exactly from day to day. At the moment it seems to be central England suffering with the cloud while other areas that you might expect to be cloudy in a NE flow are actually clear. It's been very cloudy here this morning and most of yesterday, which is more a case of bad luck than anything as we're often protected to a degree by the Pennines. Areas just north of here have done a lot better sunshine wise over the last day and a half.

We also had a very sunny day on Monday in a very similar setup. But yes unless you're in the far west there is definitely the danger of being caught under the cloud.

Yep, the Pennines should protect you...
It was glorious here on Monday too, but those of us who are prone to cloud off the North Sea northeasterly  - particually Lincs, Notts, Derbys, Leicester , East Yorks, - its not looking so good as theres a Northeasterly throughout. It is possible that some places may not see the sun for a week or more, the worst case scenario. Hopefully the cloud wont be as persistent, and will break up, or the highs orientation may change. IF we can drop that Northeasterly , the high intensifies or changes shape/orientaion, then we should be ok.
It must also be noted that the ECM and GFS were not predicting this thick cloud until later on Monday, and viewing the Skew-t from Notts we have around 600metres thick of cloud. That will not burn off easily.

[sheikhy]

10 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Yep, the Pennines should protect you...
It was glorious here on Monday too, but those of us who are prone to cloud off the North Sea northeasterly  - particually Lincs, Notts, Derbys, Leicester , East Yorks, - its not looking so good as theres a Northeasterly throughout. It is possible that some places may not see the sun for a week or more, the worst case scenario. Hopefully the cloud wont be as persistent, and will break up, or the highs orientation may change. IF we can drop that Northeasterly , the high intensifies or changes shape/orientaion, then we should be ok.
It must also be noted that the ECM and GFS were not predicting this thick cloud until later on Monday, and viewing the Skew-t from Notts we have around 600metres thick of cloud. That will not burn off easily.

Must say its been pretty gloomy last few couple of days!!i just hope the cloud clears off for tomorrow and the weekend!!!hopefully we can encounter a stubborn clear patch over us over the next few days!!its amazing how the cloud cover is literally a bullseye for the midlands but either side its been  non stop clear blue sky!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 hours ago, sheikhy said:

Ukmo and ecm as you were!very very dry with high pressure all the way to the end!hopefully we have similar charts come november december time!

Hi Shaky...im hopeful the Midlands will improve over the next couple of days,with cloud amounts breaking better.

Just had a glance at the UK as an whole,and it's glorious across the South Coast...you guys deserve it,even after 3 months of moaning  

The SW looks cracking,the NW and the Lakes look glorious...should keep Damian happy...Central Scotland and Western Scotland,along with most of Ireland look grand yet again! Enjoy it guys...im not envious while I'm stuck under cloud cover again here,but there are signs of a break up in that cloud later.

GFS 6z looks good,infact perhaps a more favourable shift in that High slightly Eastwards,to bring other areas into the summary conditions later this Weekend!

Wow...dont tell me we could be looking at a settled Bank Holiday period,and potentially sunny! 

It's been a shocking year in the UK for many reasons here in the UK... I think we deserve a little cheer!

Edited August 25, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Frosty.]

Hopefully this won’t get duplicated!  ...Anyway, the ECM 0z ensemble mean shows there’s very strong support for anticyclonic conditions to persist through early September!    

Edited August 25, 2021 by jon snow

[Methuselah]

Not that the GFS 06Z is too bad, either? Let's hope the burgeoning tPV does its stuff, and ushers in a more traditional NW-SE split!

    

    

    

[Frosty.]

Just looking through the GEFS 6z I think the odds favour an anticyclonic early September, there’s even some plume potential that can’t be ignored but essentially it could turn out to be a largely pleasant or even warmer than average fine early autumn?...however, the ensembles are a very mixed bag so confidence isn’t too high?...I would say cautious optimism?, at least the recent strong retrogression signal seems to have diminished?...as far as I’m concerned, retrogression is only useful in winter!!!!

 

Edited August 25, 2021 by jon snow

[Methuselah]

Well, old chap, isn't the GEFS 06Z ensemble spiffing!  

[mushymanrob]

4 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Theres no change right through next week if this chart is to be believed. That high is anchored and is going nowhere fast. Western areas will really be having a great end to Summer/start to Autumn, but those of us who are prone to north sea cloud - which currently is a large swathe of England - my have one of the most boring periods of weather ever. Grey skies, with no guarantee that itll change. I suppose that as the high intensifies it might suppress cloud formation..

The only good thing is that itll be dry.

............ Mind you, if the 8-14 day chart is accurate, then its looking like a slow return towards "average" is likely as it suggests the strong high next week may well weaken significantly. Theres still ridging to our West, but theres a reasonable Westerly sourced upper flow which suggests a change towards more unsettled? Nothing bad just yet though, we still have a weakened positive pressure anomaly. This would be mainly dry, but not totally, a fair weather mix and average-ish temps.

 

[Mike Poole]

Good start to the 12s with the ICON seeing the high drift a little east, which, let’s not beat about the bush, most want for a late blast of warmth!  T180:

Good uppers too, can’t see many issues with cloud cover here.  

[Frosty.]

I would describe the ICON 12z as set fair...does that sound fair enough? 

[Mike Poole]

Liking UKMO too, here T144:

That low out west should at worst hold the high and at best push it further east - this is what I’m looking for on the GFS GEM and ECM JMA as they roll out.  The background signals maybe don’t necessarily point to a shift eastwards of the high, but ex-tropical storms may well do.  

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

On 24/08/2021 at 20:50, Alderc said:

Yup high pressure in control probably until about the 9th of Sept by my reckoning, maybe starting to swing towards a sightly more favourable orientation around month end as well but still plenty of cloud and clag for large parts of the population the next few days. It’s all well and good western Scotland reaching 27C but no one lives there - as much use as a snooze button on a smoke alarm  

I can assure you that people do live in Western Scotland and I’m one of them! Very rare that we get weather like this at the end of August, but don’t fret my friend I’m sure normal service will resume and send the settled weather your way while we sit under cloud and drizzle with little or no moaning from our end! 

Models are definitely showing this HP sticking around for some time, into mid September possibly? Could be one of the driest starts to autumn on record… but that potential major hurricane is looking quite concerning for the gulf coast, we’ll see how the models play it out in the next 72 hours too

Edited August 25, 2021 by Ross Andrew Hemphill
Mistake

[MATTWOLVES 3]

29 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Liking UKMO too, here T144:

That low out west should at worst hold the high and at best push it further east - this is what I’m looking for on the GFS GEM and ECM JMA as they roll out.  The background signals maybe don’t necessarily point to a shift eastwards of the high, but ex-tropical storms may well do.  

GEM hints at a touch of Eastwards movement of the High Mike..looking good either way for the settled theme to continue..The sun is finally coming out here at nearly 6!! I've waited all day with the deckchair!! Now it's bloody tea time

Seriously i ain't bothered. You win some,you lose some.

[Methuselah]

GFS 12Z at T+303:  

[Mike Poole]

49 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

GEM hints at a touch of Eastwards movement of the High Mike..looking good either way for the settled theme to continue..The sun is finally coming out here at nearly 6!! I've waited all day with the deckchair!! Now it's bloody tea time

Seriously i ain't bothered. You win some,you lose some.

Yep GEM going in that direction T192:

Beyond that, well, we will see…

GFS rather fizzled to a default pattern in the reliable, I thought, let’s see what ECM thinks.

Edited August 25, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Methuselah]

And long may it 'fizzle'!        

                                                                      

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean suggests that on balance, early September will also be largely settled / benign under high pressure / ridging?  

 

Edited August 25, 2021 by jon snow

[Kentspur]

Lovely ending to GFS 12z and its not without support in the ensembles- this for East Kent. Could we see a rare 2021 last hurrah plume in the Southern half of the country? Enjoy the conditions later this week not often those in the north/west have it better than the SE in summer, just hope you can share out the snow for once this coming winter (although not when im in Aviemore!) Subject to restrictions coming back!

[Mike Poole]

ECM out to T120, I can see this one drifting east, more forcing from the lows in the Atlantic:

We will see…

[Frosty.]

Looking a bit further ahead, to me the GEFS 12z mean indicates that although high pressure influence may loosen its grip for a few days during early September?, it then tightens its grip again as the Azores high starts to wax yet again....so, honestly, there is scope for the first half of September to be predominantly settled?...maybe that’s a foolish thing to say...or maybe it isn’t!!!!

 

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144 and maybe an inkling of a push of high pressure to our east:

[MATTWOLVES 3]

ECM...we keep saying this I know! But good lord,anything like this come a few months time,and this place will be In meltdown...this is Greenland Blocking at its very best my friends.

A tease!! Or a taste of things to come..check the uppers to the NORTH!

Edited August 25, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Mike Poole]

ECM T216, well if this is what is on offer, then ECM can go do itself!  Ridiculous run…