model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Kentspur]

Id take this latest CFS run 100%- Firstly on the 1st week of December it brings a snowy set up with -10c 850s to Northern Scotland where I will hopefully staying in a Highland lodge (3rd time lucky actually be going because of covid.) 

 

Then mid December when im back in Kent the coldest uppers relocate here and an easterly with some nice snow showers

Heres hoping!

[Frosty.]

Generally speaking I think the Gfs 0z operational is a pretty good run in terms of high pressure domination, varying degrees of warmth / sunshine / cloud, early September looks more like summer than early autumn!!! ️  ⛈ 

Edited August 22, 2021 by jon snow

[johnholmes]

2 hours ago, Kentspur said:

Id take this latest CFS run 100%- Firstly on the 1st week of December it brings a snowy set up with -10c 850s to Northern Scotland where I will hopefully staying in a Highland lodge (3rd time lucky actually be going because of covid.) 

 

Then mid December when im back in Kent the coldest uppers relocate here and an easterly with some nice snow showers

Heres hoping!

Oh come on talking of December in mid/late August!

[Methuselah]

Nothing untoward within the GEFS 00Z ensembles:

    

The BBC app is now suggestive of a more general (though only 'light') cloud-cover for next week, so a subtle change from the 'sunny intervals' suggested earlier.

Edited August 22, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Frosty.]

Apart from the occasional fly  in the ointment  .. the ECM 0z operational is a decent run with plenty of high pressure / ridging with variable temps / sunshine / cloud?! ️ ⛈..erm perhaps a bit of overnight fog ? , a few showers erm... ...I think that covers all bases!   

Edited August 22, 2021 by jon snow

[Frosty.]

For the most part, the ECM 0z ensemble mean looks settled under high pressure / ridging, beyond tomorrow’s showers it becomes mostly dry!.. there would be day to day variations with temperatures and in the distribution of sunshine / cloud as the orientation / position of the anticyclone undergoes several changes but generally speaking it looks a benign pleasant end to summer / start to autumn for most, if not all parts of the u k! ️  

 

Edited August 22, 2021 by jon snow

[ANYWEATHER]

Chasing clouds is about as exciting as it gets this coming week, although I will take this upcoming weather allbeit rather boring over inseccant rain ,wind , and heat! Definately going to feel like we are moving with the calender this week out of summer and into early Autumn☺

[mushymanrob]

On 13/08/2021 at 11:29, mushymanrob said:

I wouldnt dust off the BBQ just yet, whilst high pressure is almost certain to develop next week so by next weekend and beyond its firmly in charge , the latest NOAA 8-14 day chart backs down from developing the eastward progress of the high, but instead starts to suggest itll be stalling North of the UK.

So settled, dry, but possibly on the cool side and the eastern coastal counties may well be poor with a northeasterly draft. The west though should be warm and sunny... whether this chart is a glitch or not will only become apparent with further runs, but unless the building high is centred to our East, theres no heatwave imho.

Anomalies got it pretty much bang on - again  imho.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Nothing untoward within the GEFS 00Z ensembles:

    

The BBC app is now suggestive of a more general (though only 'light') cloud-cover for next week, so a subtle change from the 'sunny intervals' suggested earlier.

Met office app for here stating increasingly sunny and warm,perhaps very warm Western parts Pete Monday to Thursday.

GFS 6z looking OK so far.

So it looks like some locations can get there deckchairs back out through the coming week...could be some cloud issues further East,hopefully it burns back for you.

Edited August 22, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Frosty.]

Pardon the pun but I would BANK Bank Holiday Monday from the Gfs 6z op..   indeed, I would bank early September too..  as it looks more like summer than early autumn!

 

 

[Methuselah]

I cannae see much to complain about, in this morning's GFS 06Z . . . Not that 'someone' won't find something suitably whinge-worthy?!

    

    

    

[MATTWOLVES 3]

40 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I cannae see much to complain about, in this morning's GFS 06Z . . . Not that 'someone' won't find something suitably whinge-worthy?!

    

    

    

Are you telling me the outlook is nae bad pete

Yep next week big improvement to what many have endured recently...I would have though a trip to the West Coast for instance could be a good idea.

[Frosty.]

Looking further into early September there’s no sign as such of a change to typically autumnal unsettled weather according to the GEFS 6z mean, apart from the expected ebb and flow of the Azores high / ridge, basically it looks like a continuation of the predominantly fine / pleasant conditions which dominate the week ahead, bar a few showers dotted around tomorrow but they are a dying feature as pressure continues to rise! ️  

Edited August 22, 2021 by jon snow

[Mike Poole]

ICON 12z high pressure through to the end T180:

The centre of the high to the NW here, and that is what is still up for grabs, I think.  Settled and dummy for most is great, but would be good if we could draw a bit of southerly heat, and that would require the high to set up further east.  Will be looking for this on the rest of the 12s…

[Frosty.]

I can really sum up the ICON 12z in two words....nae bad!    

Edited August 22, 2021 by jon snow

[Mike Poole]

UKMO hedging bets at T144:

You’d think the balance of forcing of the two lows would result in retrogression but less sure on this one.  

[Frosty.]

Although the uppers (850”s) look meh on the Ukmo 12h, I wouldn’t get too hung up about it because it should still be pleasantly warm at the surface, especially in any sunny spells and out of the breeze, besides, I’m not about to complain about a very likely anticyclonic end to summer..nuff said!!!

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Jon, it depends on location, those last 2 charts (fri and Sat) look vile here, cold, windy and misty/grey

[Mike Poole]

Pretty happy with GFS tonight, here T186:

Centre of the high further east, a cut -off low to the SW, should be good run this one.  Where would one put the uncertainty on the centre of the high T186 at this point given all models today, I’ve gone for my stab:

Edited August 22, 2021 by Mike Poole

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Thoughts on this one! cloudless day Cheshire/Wales, anywhere west of Pennines/W Scotland! maybe upto 25 degrees

this location, cold/windy and slate grey sea mist, 13 degrees as a guess

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Thoughts on this one! cloudless day Cheshire/Wales, anywhere west of Pennines/W Scotland! maybe upto 25 degrees

this location, cold/windy and slate grey sea mist, 13 degrees as a guess

Don’t buy that at this time of year, but you know your own location better than me mate.  I think you’d be in the sunshine.  

Edit, assuming that chart is GFS.

Edited August 22, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Don’t buy that at this time of year, but you know your own location better than me mate.  I think you’d be in the sunshine.  

Edit, assuming that chart is GFS.

If it was the GFS it doesn’t look too bad to me unless you’re actually on a beach on the east coast of northern england! 

Edited August 22, 2021 by jon snow

[Mike Poole]

GEM 12z T240:

A 1035 high, unusual in summer.  Not ideally placed and to the western end of what I think is likely, but T850s good and you can’t see that going anywhere any time quickly, so the settled weather stretches into September…

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM 12z T240:

A 1035 high, unusual in summer.  Not ideally placed and to the western end of what I think is likely, but T850s good and you can’t see that going anywhere any time quickly, so the settled weather stretches into September…

Birthday sea mist! not the best 'present'

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Birthday sea mist! not the best 'present'

You will have to explain the mechanism that gives you, if you live in Stafford, mist at this time of year from such a synoptic.  Because I have NO IDEA why that should happen?