model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T192-T240:

These looks good to me at this timeframe.  4 of 5 Scandi blocking (red border) all of which look to keep the UK under high pressure, different orientations, yes.  Won’t please everyone of course, ‘twas ever thus.  

[Mike Poole]

GFS pub run through any kind of weekend wobble by T72, and laughing by T96:

[damianslaw]

Entering the time of year when ex tropical storm activity can make a mockery of forecasts. Any predictions on whether this will be a big storm season..  

[Singularity]

I believe next week could be a good deal warmer for most (away from east coast£ than some seem to be assuming on here, when accounting for the typical underestimation of temperature response to sunshine.

Even this week with so much cloud around, there have been places reaching 2-3*C above the model numbers in response to an hour or two of sunshine. 

So, I’d not be surprised to see mid-20s maximums quite widely Mon-Wed and perhaps beyond if an ECM 12z style outcome occurs i.e. no undercut of cooler air from the northeast.

Nights, on the other hand, could be a little cooler than average, depending on how much the additional daytime warmth factors in (in my experience it can add a degree or so but it’s not at all reliable. Sometimes the nights even turn out cooler despite warmer days!).

[Frosty.]

A great start to the day!..Ukmo 0h soon becomes anticyclonic and remains anticyclonic, and the Gfs 0z op likewise becomes very anticyclonic until early September...so the BH weekend would be nice...as for when we get into early autumn... I couldn’t care less about summery weather to be honest!  

[mb018538]

Saturday looks to have gone well and truly down the pan now. We may just scrape 23c in the far east of England before the cloud and rain take over.



Of course the trade off for this is that low pressure moves through a lot quicker, is gone by early Monday, and high pressure takes over.




Tuesday has high pressure in charge for all, with any decaying fronts etc gone. Cloud amounts to be determined, though perhaps 24c if there are extended breaks in the cloud:

[Methuselah]

So, here's the GFS's forecast for BH Monday: far too soon to be making 'on the ground' 'predictions', IMO?

    

[mushymanrob]

To illustrate why im not buying warmth next week away from western areas...

Easterlies sourced far to the north with a long sea track.... smacks of cloud for the east and central areas, although central should brighten up. This of course will have a knock on affect with temperatures.
This is for Wednesday onwards, so just how "summery" itll be will be down to how much cloud who gets and when. But at least itll be dry.
 

[Frosty.]

If you love high pressure you will love the ECM 0z operational!...and there’s a thundery twist towards the end!..what more could a summer FAN want? ⛈

 

 

Edited August 20, 2021 by jon snow

[seabreeze86]

33 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

To illustrate why im not buying warmth next week away from western areas...

Easterlies sourced far to the north with a long sea track.... smacks of cloud for the east and central areas, although central should brighten up. This of course will have a knock on affect with temperatures.
This is for Wednesday onwards, so just how "summery" itll be will be down to how much cloud who gets and when. But at least itll be dry.
 

Good post. As you say smacks of low cloud and sea fog seen it multiple times but should burn off by afternoon away from coastal areas. It’s usually this set up where Redcar is 14c and 10 miles inland it’s low to mid 20’s 

[Guest]

24 minutes ago, jon snow said:

If you love high pressure you will love the ECM 0z operational!...and there’s a thundery twist towards the end!..what more could a summer FAN want? ⛈

 

 

A summer fan might want warmth and sunshine, something lacking from the surface conditions derived from the ECM despite its high pressure, it’s extremely cloudy and temps for the most part barely past 20C. Not very summery really. 

[northwestsnow]

Well the main theme next week is drying out.

Clearly location will play a big part in surface conditions.

West  of the Pennines, Wales,NI and the SW likely to see the sunnier conditions I would guess.

East Coast likely to be cloudier but hopefully dry too.

[mb018538]

On 20/08/2021 at 08:02, mushymanrob said:

To illustrate why im not buying warmth next week away from western areas...

Easterlies sourced far to the north with a long sea track.... smacks of cloud for the east and central areas, although central should brighten up. This of course will have a knock on affect with temperatures.
This is for Wednesday onwards, so just how "summery" itll be will be down to how much cloud who gets and when. But at least itll be dry.
 

Been saying this for days @mushymanrob, but it's largely fallen on deaf ears with people saying I'm wrong and it'll be a lovely week of sunny high pressure and temps widely into the mid 20s...

ECM this morning shows large banks of cloud, bits and pieces of light rain in the mix, and temps 20-22c at best.




May pan out differently, but as you say the weather is never as simple as just seeing a surface high over the UK and assuming it'll be a nice sunny week.

[johnholmes]

My take using the anomaly charts. Feel free to differ but please give an explanation.

Friday 20 August

Ec=a change from the last 2 outputs in that the trough has now almost been reduced to nil and is a small cut off now from sw England then sw with the remains of the ridge now ne of uk, almost no flow at 500 over the whole of the uk

Noaa=it maintains the strong ridge from ne of uk out to ne Iceland and into e’ern Greenland with quite high +ve anomalies just ne of Iceland of 210 DM, the marked trough remains underneath the ridge but again only extends down to about 50 n with a very slack w’ly below that into the continent. Yet again the 8-14 output has only a very small +ve (same place as 6-10) of 90 DM and the ridge is now off the Norwegian coast with little influence s of 50 n, a general light w’ly as with ec

So to the surface weather=becoming dry early in the 6-10 period. Some showery outbreaks for the south are possible at the start. These are more likely towards the end as the Atlantic starts to have more effect. The upper ridge will ensure any surface ridge is just about w of the meridian and about the same place north so the best of any sunshine for w’ern areas with shelter from any flow off the N sea. Well inland should see some breaks develop during most days? No heat waves but pleasant enough in any sun with light winds. As to how long, hard to say but a week or so perhaps.

Finally, at this time of year, any prediction needs the caution of, tropical storm influences. If any ex hurricane gets into the north atlantic then no model deals well with this.

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[Frosty.]

49 minutes ago, Alderc said:

A summer fan might want warmth and sunshine, something lacking from the surface conditions derived from the ECM despite its high pressure, it’s extremely cloudy and temps for the most part barely past 20C. Not very summery really. 

Uppers don’t matter, it would be warm at the surface..it’s august!  

[Guest]

20 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Uppers don’t matter, it would be warm at the surface..it’s august!  

Not under all the cloud and drizzle, mid to high teens, maybe 20-22C in the sunnier west. 

[Frosty.]

The ECM 0z ensemble mean looks pretty good to me, high pressure domination, all the nitpicking about cloud amounts and how cool the breeze would be?..pfffft, at least it’s drying up and settling down and I’m sure in any decent sunshine it would feel like..erm.. ...summer! ️ 

[mushymanrob]

On 13/08/2021 at 22:42, mushymanrob said:

Sorry.. unpopular post time but tonights NOAA charts retain blocking to our north, and IMHO do not support a heatwave. 

Either im wrong

They are wrong

Both

Or not.

 

28 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Been saying this for days @mushymanrob, but it's largely fallen on deaf ears with people saying I'm wrong and it'll be a lovely week of sunny high pressure and temps widely into the mid 20s...

ECM this morning shows large banks of cloud, bits and pieces of light rain in the mix, and temps 20-22c at best.


May pan out differently, but as you say the weather is never as simple as just seeing a surface high over the UK and assuming it'll be a nice sunny week.

Yep, The Anomalies have kept the high to our north as my post from a week ago highlights. High centred north of the UK will always threaten us with cloud off the north sea and cooler temps except in the west. Its one of the easiest? forecasts to make as the only variable really is cloud cover. Its understandable that in Summer people want warmth and sunshine, I DO TOO! lol. but wanting it doesnt make it happen if the charts do not support it, hence posts that go against the supposed seasonal desires are eith ignored or called wrong.

[mb018538]

Last night's ECM 500mb update is very unsettled once this more settled spell breaks down towards the end of the month. Blocking regimes gone on the regime forecast. This is expected and ties in with Matt's thoughts below - the Pacific is once again going to come to a convective standstill, MJO not up to much and stuck in the COD, which downstream will more than likely lead to another trough parked in NW Europe. Hurricanes and tropical systems the big unknown as usual, and could shake things up. An unsettled first half isn't locked in by any means. With -ve VP anoms over Africa and the west of Africa especially, it looks ripe for an active hurricane period.

 

Edited August 20, 2021 by mb018538

[Guest]

30 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Last night's ECM 500mb update is very unsettled once this more settled spell breaks down towards the end of the month. Blocking regimes gone on the regime forecast. This is expected and ties in with Matt's thoughts below - the Pacific is once again going to come to a convective standstill, MJO not up to much and stuck in the COD, which downstream will more than likely lead to another trough parked in NW Europe. Hurricanes and tropical systems the big unknown as usual, and could shake things up. An unsettled first half isn't locked in by any means. With -ve VP anoms over Africa and the west of Africa especially, it looks ripe for an active hurricane period.

 

Standard - golf weekend 9-11th September

[MATTWOLVES 3]

47 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Last night's ECM 500mb update is very unsettled once this more settled spell breaks down towards the end of the month. Blocking regimes gone on the regime forecast. This is expected and ties in with Matt's thoughts below - the Pacific is once again going to come to a convective standstill, MJO not up to much and stuck in the COD, which downstream will more than likely lead to another trough parked in NW Europe. Hurricanes and tropical systems the big unknown as usual, and could shake things up. An unsettled first half isn't locked in by any means. With -ve VP anoms over Africa and the west of Africa especially, it looks ripe for an active hurricane period.

 

I've pointed this out from the last couple of ec46 updates! Matt H as been pretty solid with his Summer forecasts though..so kudos to him.

But yeh a definite signal for a breakdown towards months end,before perhaps an improvement around the mid month period.

I can't help but notice on here this morning how there seems to be a chuckle brothers routine going on...there will be lots of cloud!! Oh no there won't! Yes there will! 

I would have thought NE/E areas could have problems with cloud at times which can become reluctant to clear at times..central and Western areas should fair the best! But for me it's still to early to nail daily surface conditions down at this stage....just little tweaks here and there could make daily variations.

So at least we have a good week of dry and settled condition to look forward too..But for me it looks to be following the same path of mid July...namely a week of fine weather before turning more unsettled for some time....only difference being,we won't be getting serious Heat this time around! And in all fairness that's ya lot! 

Eyes down for something more interesting come November,and I'm sure a much more productive summer next year.

 

 

 

Edited August 20, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[MATTWOLVES 3]

26 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Standard - golf weekend 9-11th September

Bit to far out to worry about the conditions for your golf that far out...you may get lucky! Tell you what though, Northern Blocking is showing up often again...long may that trend continue further into the year.

Edited August 20, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Bit to far out to worry about the conditions for your golf that far out.....

It looks par for the course to me..couldn’t resist! 
 

Anyway, great Gfs 0z and great models generally, at least it’s not going to be a crappy trough dominated end to summer, quite the opposite in fact!  

Edited August 20, 2021 by jon snow

[mb018538]

On 20/08/2021 at 11:20, MATTWOLVES said:

I've pointed this out from the last couple of ec46 updates! Matt H as been pretty solid with his Summer forecasts though..so kudos to him.

But yeh a definite signal for a breakdown towards months end,before perhaps an improvement around the mid month period.

I can't help but notice on here this morning how there seems to be a chuckle brothers routine going on...there will be lots of cloud!! Oh no there won't! Yes there will! 

I would have thought NE/E areas could have problems with cloud at times which can become reluctant to clear at times..central and Western areas should fair the best! But for me it's still to early to nail daily surface conditions down at this stage....just little tweaks here and there could make daily variations.

So at least we have a good week of dry and settled condition to look forward too..But for me it looks to be following the same path of mid July...namely a week of fine weather before turning more unsettled for some time....only difference being,we won't be getting serious Heat this time around! And in all fairness that's ya lot! 

Eyes down for something more interesting come November,and I'm sure a much more productive summer next year.

 

 

 

Matt has been excellent with his predictions and forecasts for a long time. Just go back through his twitter feed - the evidence is there. He has nailed long range forecasts all spring and summer. Fair play to him.

[Northwest NI]

On 20/08/2021 at 09:55, jon snow said:

The ECM 0z ensemble mean looks pretty good to me, high pressure domination, all the nitpicking about cloud amounts and how cool the breeze would be?..pfffft, at least it’s drying up and settling down and I’m sure in any decent sunshine it would feel like..erm.. ...summer! ️ 

Don’t want to appear pedantic but nitpicking should have a hyphen…..