model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Whisper to your friends...summer might be coming. Better late than never I say...cracking gem run..

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean is an absolute peach next week and it’s no surprise there are some sensational perturbations...
 

Edited August 19, 2021 by jon snow

[Guest]

32 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Whisper to your friends...summer might be coming. Better late than never I say...cracking gem run..

Synoptics are reasonable but cloud will be a problem, only the most favourable areas on the gem run get past 20C, in fact the air source is far from summery. 
 

 

Edited August 19, 2021 by Alderc

[Methuselah]

And the 12Z operational run is nowt to be sniffed at, either: 

    

    

    

[MATTWOLVES 3]

16 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Synoptics are reasonable but cloud will be a problem, only the most favourable areas on the gem run get past 20C, in fact the air source is far from summery. 
 

 

Chris compared to what I have right now,which Trust me...is dire...those charts are a vast improvement....Good summary conditions don't necessarily have to mean 30+. Yes you may be plagued by low cloud thus suppressing temps...but it could turn out very nice for some..and I'm not gonna come on here and depress folks all because the conditions are not great in my locale! If some get a nice spell out of this,then I will be happy.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

23 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Synoptics are reasonable but cloud will be a problem, only the most favourable areas on the gem run get past 20C, in fact the air source is far from summery. 
 

 

hmmm, north sea mist looks very bad! may be struggling to reach 15 degrees here, but will settle for that over rain

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ecm looking OK, well its at least a privilege to see much brighter colours around the UK.

Ohh hello...warmer uppers alert..

Come on guys.. work with me . Its bloody stressful work on ya lonesome

No complaints from me on this run...have a very good evening,I'm knackered

Yep...it ends well..so I'm happy.

Edited August 19, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Bobd29]

I’m with you Matt,  and with light winds, possibly even a drift off the continent in the south after the 25th…what’s not to like? Least it’s a whole lot better than the past two weeks!

[JBMWeatherForever]

Seems to be cross model agreement now for a nice end to Summer, and will be surprised if temperature's aren't in the warm category for much of the country with the synoptics now being shown, especially the west, and even eastern areas look like joining in eventually. 

[mb018538]

On 19/08/2021 at 19:55, Bobd29 said:

I’m with you Matt,  and with light winds, possibly even a drift off the continent in the south after the 25th…what’s not to like? Least it’s a whole lot better than the past two weeks!

Met Office must have access to some secret data! None of the model runs look any warmer than it has been this week - high teens or just into the low 20s. ECM is also very cloudy on the 12z again. Let’s hope it’s completely overdoing cloud amounts!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Met Office must have access to some secret data! None of the model runs look any warmer than it has been this week - high teens or just into the low 20s. ECM is also very cloudy on the 12z again. Let’s hope it’s completely overdoing cloud amounts!

doubt it's overdoing north sea mist, this location is a magnet for it! 15 degrees still at midday, NW is place to be, a very April/May like setup

[Frosty.]

Oh my goodness, really liking tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean from T+96 hours onwards, simply put, it shows settled summery weather returning..no ifs no buts..no maybe about it!  

Edited August 19, 2021 by jon snow

[Methuselah]

I'd better post the 12Z ensembles then:        Nae bad? 

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Whisper to your friends...summer might be coming. Better late than never I say...cracking gem run..

M8.... i dont call Easterlies "summer" ... try living at skegness in Easterlies! or at least an easterly draft. Without looking, im guessing the 850s are pretty low. but would be undercut anyway..

Edited August 19, 2021 by mushymanrob

[MATTWOLVES 3]

18 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Met Office must have access to some secret data! None of the model runs look any warmer than it has been this week - high teens or just into the low 20s. ECM is also very cloudy on the 12z again. Let’s hope it’s completely overdoing cloud amounts!

I would say they've got access to a hell of a lot more data....Mogreps for instance! 

If Alex deacon says it's looking sunnier and Warmer...thats a good thing...one of the better met forecasters for me.

Word of caution though regarding tonight's ens..quite a few members dropping that pressure somewhat!! Eyes down for the EC46....but I've a feeling in me water September may well start a little unsettled before improving a little further on.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

M8.... i dont call Easterlies "summer" ... try living at skegness in Easterlies! or at least an easterly draft. Without looking, im guessing the 850s are pretty low.

850s looked OK.. Estlys can bring brilliant conditions at certain times of Summer! I've basically said on numerous occasions some areas will see some very nice conditions..and I've pointed out more than once,areas towards the East could be plagued with low cloud and cooler temps!

Even the met are saying sunnier and warmer...do you know something they don't? 

And there's very rarely ever a set up that puts the entirety of the UK in the same conditions.

Edited August 19, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[damianslaw]

11 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, I can't see too much in this morning's GFS 00Z that justifies the mind-numbing negativity some folks persist in showing. Yes, it's quite possible that something 'less than perfect' may come down the eastern flank of the high-pressure area from time to time, but it's true that the boffins in Exeter know more than I do -- and they don't seem overly concerned?

    

    

    

Suspect the negativity is due to the fact much of August has been eaten up by poor lacklustre conditions, and patience has now worn very slim, with just a week or so left of the month and school holidays, time is running out. Whilst September can and often does bring settled warm sunny weather.. the sense of what could have been prevails, and the shortening daylight is a kick in the teeth. 

Back to the models, another poor weekend on the cards, plenty of rain for many, temps not much to write home about. Changes afoot next week, to salvage August though, high pressure back on the scene. No heatwave indeed temps could be quite supressed where cloud persists near eastern coastal parts, minima may also be quite cool which will peg back mean temps as we pull in cooler uppers. Main positive is plenty of dry weather and hopefully plentiful sunshine. Fingers crossed it can hold through the Bank Holiday weekend. 

 

[Frosty.]

The FACT is the latest mean charts from the ECM / GEFS have upgraded and are looking GREAT for a return of dry, sunnier and warmer anticyclonic weather next week and hopefully to infinity and beyond!!..nuff said!   

Edited August 19, 2021 by jon snow

[mb018538]

On 19/08/2021 at 21:11, jon snow said:

The FACT is the latest mean charts from the ECM / GEFS have upgraded and are looking GREAT for a return of dry, sunnier and warmer anticyclonic weather next week and hopefully to infinity and beyond!!..nuff said!   

Let’s see how it pans out as we get into next week. Wish I could share some of your unbridled enthusiasm….think I’ve just had enough of ‘summer’ 2021 and its 1 nice week out of 12 and been ground down. Hoping it’s as pleasant as you think it will be.

[mushymanrob]

On 19/08/2021 at 21:04, MATTWOLVES said:

850s looked OK.. Estlys can bring brilliant conditions at certain times of Summer! I've basically said on numerous occasions some areas will see some very nice conditions..and I've pointed out more than once,areas towards the East could be plagued with low cloud and cooler temps!

Even the met are saying sunnier and warmer...do you know something they don't? 

And there's very rarely ever a set up that puts the entirety of the UK in the same conditions.

ive no doubt next week is likely to be sunnier and warmer, especially in the west.

"do i know something they dont"?... no of course not, but this forum is for discussing what WE think, not a brown nosing what others who are assumed (usually correctly) to know more.

the anomalies do not support an easterly pressure build other than something transitory..
"set ups that puts the entirety of the uk in the same conditions" are not uncommon! tomorrow for eg.

we are, after an unsettled weekend, heading for a decent settled spell of mainly dry conditions for the whole country, but temperatures will struggle to get much above average for most.. very pleasant conditions, very useable for outdoor operations.. these should last through the bank holiday weekend. but i think the berst that can be said is that it wont be overly wet!

Edited August 19, 2021 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Let’s see how it pans out as we get into next week. Wish I could share some of your unbridled enthusiasm….think I’ve just had enough of ‘summer’ 2021 and its 1 nice week out of 12 and been ground down. Hoping it’s as pleasant as you think it will be.

Perhaps when I said to infinity and beyond I was exaggerating just a little?... ...anyway, I’m just calling it as I see it..maybe I’m looking at the wrong charts?  

[Uncertainty]

It’s pretty much spot the difference at day 8 on the EPS/GFS

 

 

NOAA still have the core of the height anomaly ever so slightly further NW, reflecting the 0z runs

Far E areas will always struggle to shake the cloud but the eastward trend today in the placement of the high brings more areas into play for sunshine and slightly warmer temps. It was never a heatwave.

Tonight’s models suggest this dry spell has at least 7 days in its legs. Maybe a few more. After that the Ec46 has a wet September but I’m not buying into that yet against recovering AAM and the dry early September singularity. 

[Guest]

I think people are just high pressure and assuming it’s going to be nice. Undercuts, clag, possibly extensive clag given the weaker sun and increased night lengths. The west will be best but for the majority of the population high teens to 20C look most likely and with a strong it’s likely to feel distinctly cool. 

15 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Let’s see how it pans out as we get into next week. Wish I could share some of your unbridled enthusiasm….think I’ve just had enough of ‘summer’ 2021 and its 1 nice week out of 12 and been ground down. Hoping it’s as pleasant as you think it will be.

Edited August 19, 2021 by Alderc

[summer blizzard]

As summer comes to end the models now play with another pressure build.

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Not the best of news folks..Definitely more settled in the run up to the Bank Holiday...but its touch and go whether this holds due to Low pressure from the NW having greater influence. The signal is growing for a more unsettled start to the month,especially further NW where bands of rain and stronger winds could affect you at times,and these most likely spreading South at times..best of the conditions towards the far SE. I said the other day it could be towards mid month before the next improvement comes along! Plenty of water to go under the bridge before then...

Edit.. the above is reference to the EC 46 mean.

Edited August 19, 2021 by MATTWOLVES