model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[MATTWOLVES 3]

42 minutes ago, jon snow said:

All things considered, the ECM 0z ensemble mean looks pretty decent as far as late august is concerned, it’s not as diluted as it was yesterday which suggests stronger support for a settled and warmer spell?..  

The future is Bright,the future is orange   mate.. would still like to see those Heights transfer a little further Eastwards though..

Early look at the 6z ens highlights decreasing rainfall spikes also...let's just hope we don't end up with a gloom fest...West is best perhaps...

[JayAlmeida]

It has felt thoroughly autumnal over the last few days in my neck of the woods so I'm going to be happy with the little temperature boost this weekend. Pity that we are going to have almost 100% cloud coverage according to the GFS 06z. I know rainfall and cloud coverage forecasts are fraught with inaccuracy but this doesn't look great.

Sods law

Edited August 18, 2021 by JayAlmeida

[Frosty.]

I agree with Matt, ideally the heights would transfer a tad further east and give us a much better chance of a hotter continental flow during late august, actually I found a plume in the GEFS 6z!...to be sure, there’s plenty of high pressure in the latest ensembles and some charts would be to die for if it was winter with an easterly... from Russia with love!  

 

 

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Seems to me they're doing what most of the data does..namely pick up on something more positive,before dropping the idea a few days later! I don't think I would like to call surface conditions in 12 days time though.

Theyve not dropped anything, they have consistently predicted high pressure just north of the uk, sometimes a tad to the west, other times a tad to the east... i was hoping the eastward tad was the begining of a more positive shift eastwards which would have brought us much warmer conditions.
This though is the first significant shift for about a week or so, and it is only one run, so subsequent runs may not confirm it. Time will tell.

Theres absolutely nothing wrong with making a prediction of  a 12 day "call" though.... its a prediction and may well be wrong, its how i think at this point in time, what that chart would produce for us assuming that chart becomes reality. Im sure everybody here has an idea of the conditions we would get if theres a high pressure to our near northwest.

[mb018538]

On 18/08/2021 at 13:05, MATTWOLVES said:

The future is Bright,the future is orange   mate.. would still like to see those Heights transfer a little further Eastwards though..

Early look at the 6z ens highlights decreasing rainfall spikes also...let's just hope we don't end up with a gloom fest...West is best perhaps...

Decreasing rainfall spikes doesn't mean a lot in isolation. I mean there's no rain here now....but the weather is dreadful. Constant cloud and breeze and stuck around 20c, which will dominate this entire week. It's only really enjoyable if we get some dry weather and some light winds/sunshine to go with it!

[mb018538]

On 18/08/2021 at 13:27, mushymanrob said:

Theyve not dropped anything, they have consistently predicted high pressure just north of the uk, sometimes a tad to the west, other times a tad to the east... i was hoping the eastward tad was the begining of a more positive shift eastwards which would have brought us much warmer conditions.
This though is the first significant shift for about a week or so, and it is only one run, so subsequent runs may not confirm it. Time will tell.

Theres absolutely nothing wrong with making a prediction of  a 12 day "call" though.... its a prediction and may well be wrong, its how i think at this point in time, what that chart would produce for us assuming that chart becomes reality. Im sure everybody here has an idea of the conditions we would get if theres a high pressure to our near northwest.

Just to back this up, anom charts from 3 and 5 days ago. Both show something centred to the north of the UK, ridging backing west towards Greenland:




GEM and ECM day 7 from today. Not a bad match if you ask me.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

36 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Decreasing rainfall spikes doesn't mean a lot in isolation. I mean there's no rain here now....but the weather is dreadful. Constant cloud and breeze and stuck around 20c, which will dominate this entire week. It's only really enjoyable if we get some dry weather and some light winds/sunshine to go with it!

I'm merely pointing out the signal for drier conditions...unfortunately I can't do much else about the surface conditions! Mate in all honesty it's been dreadful here for most of the Summer....I just refuse to moan about it! 

[Methuselah]

Not the most exciting of GEFS ensembles. We might have to wait for some hurricane remnants before anything interesting happens?

    

And the anomalies? Well, that's what I was on about, when wittering on about just how much synoptics can change, whilst still remaining (just?) within the envelope suggested by those anomalies?

Edited August 18, 2021 by Ed Stone

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Just to back this up, anom charts from 3 and 5 days ago. Both show something centred to the north of the UK, ridging backing west towards Greenland:




GEM and ECM day 7 from today. Not a bad match if you ask me.

Remember that the anomalies at 6-10 days are, as one would expect, more often 'correct' than the 8-14. So 70-75 % at 6-10 falling to about 54,maybe a bit less at 8-14 days, that is at 500 mb NOT the surface. The tricky bit!

Edited August 18, 2021 by johnholmes

[mushymanrob]

8 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Remember that the anomalies at 6-10 days are, as one would expect, more often 'correcy' than the 8-14. So 70-75 % at 6-10 falling to about 54,maybe a bit less at 8-14 days, that is at 500 mb NOT the surface. The tricky bit!

the synoptic charts from the ecm and gfs are at the 500mb too .... so if we can read those and apply surface conditions, why are these any different? (apart from being the mean)

[johnholmes]

Just now, mushymanrob said:

the synoptic charts from the ecm and gfs are at the 500mb too .... so if we can read those and apply surface conditions, why are these any different? (apart from being the mean)

My old fashioned ways mushy, so used to reading 500 mb charts be they GFS or EC or NOAA I rarely put the GFS with isobars on my huge data files, maybe I should start doing that?

[knocker]

37 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

the synoptic charts from the ecm and gfs are at the 500mb too .... so if we can read those and apply surface conditions, why are these any different? (apart from being the mean)

And evaluating the surface analysis from the five day mean is not a piece of cake. Here the spot analysis at t192

Edited August 18, 2021 by knocker

[Frosty.]

Was ist das? eine ikonische 12z?.. ja und nein...    

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Icon you beauty...wants to slam that High to the NE.  I don't care what you say about these charts...for or against...im just happy so see those red colours  

Crazy minds think a like @jon snow

Edited August 18, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[MATTWOLVES 3]

UKMO shaping up nicely  

Edited August 18, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Mike Poole]

ICON 12z right up for the heat with this at T144, T180:

UKMO up next, and getting involved at T120

Don’t know what people were moaning about this morning, so far on the 12s!

Edit; just dropping in the UKMO T144, very good:

Edited August 18, 2021 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON 12z right up for the heat with this at T144, T180:

UKMO up next, and getting involved at T120

Don’t know what people were moaning about this morning, so far on the 12s!

Day 7 UKMO Mike...not at all bad my good man.

[Methuselah]

If the GFS12Z (together with he Met Office) is right, Sunday will be the day to watch. Not that Saturday exactly lacks 'potential'?

    

 

[BrickFielder]

Whenever I see High pressure forecast directly north of the UK then I tend to adjust the forecast for past events. Typically High pressure between Iceland and Norway seems to be unstable and very transitory. Typically you get a High pressure ridge from Greenland towards Norway (Cold North wind for UK) followed by a Norway High ridging towards Iceland (Warmer east wind for the UK). Looks like the transition to Scandinavia High is an increasing possibility. With an Azores High ridging North the Scandinavian high can result in low pressure systems crossing the UK giving cloudy cool weather, so there is no guarantee for warmer weather.

[Mike Poole]

Just a thought as the GFS and GEM are rolling, I think this is fairly weird summer synoptics that have been observed over the last couple of months.  GFS T144:

GEM T144:

Why on earth is Greenland heights even in the mix?  It has been going on since the failed polar vortex of last winter…where does this go, does it shut down in time for winter, Sod’s law!  Or is it something to do with global warming?  Like the weirdness with the QBO recently.  We just don’t know, but my point is that it isn’t just a weird summer, it is a weird last 3 seasons going all the way back to the start of winter.  The weather patterns just don’t look right since then.  

Anyway, despite the high latitude heights the models today are suggesting settled and warm weather for us.  But the questions linger…

[Frosty.]

Just looking through the GEFS 12z, next week looks anticyclonic influenced although the high could be centred to the north of the u k?.. however, by the Bank Holiday weekend the high could become centred more favourably?...so perhaps the last days of the meteorological summer will be summery!?  

 

[Mike Poole]

ECM T96:

Already shoved that low on the 0z T120 out of the way:

Should follow the others now with an upgrade….

[Mike Poole]

ECM T120

Lots to like, including the extending of the high into Scandi.  Need to watch the point of the rather triangular HP headed for Greenland.  

[Captain Shortwave]

The models this afternoon have tended to weaken the low for the weekend and have made the upstream trough a little broader. That extra broadness comes with a stronger jet stream that effects the split flow on the weekend low. Hence the weaker and faster track of this. The upside is Monday onwards looks mostly settled, the downside is Saturday where rain will likely reach the east by dusk, so the weekend is generally taking the brunt of the unsettled conditions now.

Next week seems dependent on where the high sets up, but again a north or north easterly looks possible though how this translates on the ground remains to be seen.

Edited August 18, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[MATTWOLVES 3]

ECM shaping up OK...do we finally have something to cheer about!