model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Frosty.]

If anything, the Gfs 6z op is even better than the 0z?...the best of this summer could be still ahead of us?  

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, Alderc said:

Not under all the cloud and drizzle, mid to high teens, maybe 20-22C in the sunnier west. 

My feet are cold now. I’m sitting in my flat, and thinking if this is really still August?

Its not cold, but it’s not very warm for August standards. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

6 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Don’t want to appear pedantic but nitpicking should have a hyphen…..

Tut tut jon Snow..he really should have used the words...Nitpicks...Nitpicked....Nitpicker...Nitpicky. But the hyphenated form is becoming a less frequent form of use.

Gfs 6z looking pretty good...we lose those NW Heights too...but I've a feeling they will return..in the shorter term,it looks pretty sound.

[Weather vane]

13 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

My feet are cold now. I’m sitting in my flat, and thinking if this is really still August?

Its not cold, but it’s not very warm for August standards. 

Well, yes, it is definitely August ! Today's forecast high for London is 22oC, which is basically bang on the long term average high for London at this time of the year.

[Sunny76]

19 minutes ago, Weather vane said:

Well, yes, it is definitely August ! Today's forecast high for London is 22oC, which is basically bang on the long term average high for London at this time of the year.

It’s still not good enough. The cloud cover makes it feel cool at times. Without the sunshine, it feels very autumnal.

I really hope we have some 25-27c days at some point before this summer is out. At least a warm humid spell with a decent thunderstorm. 
 

If we have another summer like this in London, I will move. 

[Frosty.]

There’s way too many great charts to show from the GEFS 6z, there’s plumes, hot anticyclonic, very warm anticyclonic, warm anticyclonic..sure there’s some meh stuff too but it’s in the minority, which is a great sign..and the ops are stunning!...reasons to be cheerful?....plenty.. ⛈ ️ ? 

[Weather vane]

16 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

It’s still not good enough. The cloud cover makes it feel cool at times. Without the sunshine, it feels very autumnal.

I really hope we have some 25-27c days at some point before this summer is out. At least a warm humid spell with a decent thunderstorm. 
 

If we have another summer like this in London, I will move. 

I hear you ! As many others are saying, you have a good chance of near mid 20's at times next week.

[Frosty.]

To my untrained eyes, the ICON 0z ist sehr gut? Ja Ja Ja  

[Downburst]

22 minutes ago, jon snow said:

To my untrained eyes, the ICON 0z ist sehr gut? Ja Ja Ja  

For you Englander the rain is over. Meanwhile the Euro Atlantic weather regime points to Atlantic Ridge to Scandi ridge to - NAO out to September. 

[Downburst]

Still far out and a lot of scatter (shading), but mid or rather week 3 period September unsettled. Has to be said September won’t be record breaking warm and dry looking at various long range charts, but improved from next week and into first week of the month for most.

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, Downburst said:

Still far out and a lot of scatter (shading), but mid or rather week 3 period September unsettled. Has to be said September won’t be record breaking warm and dry looking at various long range charts, but improved from next week and into first week of the month for most.

I would happily sacrifice september on the altar for a settled / warm end to summer, and there is overwhelming model support for at least next week to be anticyclonic and also warmer than some are suggesting?!...bring it on! ...ok..let’s have the first week to ten days of September summery too, if possible..seeing as I’m in a good mood?! 

Edited August 20, 2021 by jon snow

[Methuselah]

3 hours ago, Northwest NI said:

Don’t want to appear pedantic but nitpicking should have a hyphen…..

Not wanting to seem doubly pedantic, but no it shouldn't:     

[Frosty.]

I think the ICON 12z is iconic?, .... ...at least it’s anticyclonic..    and despite some suppressed uppers (850’s) it would still feel pleasant at the surface in the sun and out of the breeze, warmer still where winds are lighter... ..actually, away from the eventually breezy south / southeast it is pretty much an iconic run, couldn’t ask for more really, so much better than a vile green snotty trough sat on top of the u k!!  

[Frosty.]

The Ukmo 12h is iconic..wait, now I’m getting confused, wasn’t the icon iconic too?...anyway, the Ukmo becomes very anticyclonic and it looks warmer too!  

 

[Methuselah]

Do I spy a kink in the isobars headed for EA and the SE? If so, it might sn . .  Bugger, it's August! 

    

[Frosty.]

Just looking at the week ahead, the Gfs 12z op looks anticyclonic and the first half of the week is widely warm, but from Thursday the eastern side cools down a bit for a time whereas the W / NW stays warm, then it starts warming up again further east / south into the BH weekend, there’s barely a trace of rain from early next week and apart from some brief east coastal precipitation, inland areas look dry as a bone. Sunshine / cloud amounts look variable but all in all, a good last full week of August!  ️  

Edited August 20, 2021 by jon snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Gem looking pretty decent...could get pretty warm away from the East..Ukmo day 7 looking fine also...Will post that later.

Tis the year of Northern Blocking...i have a feeling in me water this could be the year.. could be prostate problems though  

 

Edited August 20, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z op is a generally anticyclonic run, if you look at the run frame by frame you will notice our usual Atlantic filth is being diverted right around the top of the high and then nose diving through Scandinavia giving them unsettled early blasts of autumn, our high gets pushed and pulled around but stays in control of our weather, even well into early September it’s calm / pleasant...it looks quite a prolonged generally dry outlook from early next week onwards based on this run! ️  

Edited August 20, 2021 by jon snow

[Methuselah]

Aye, peeps, the GFS 12Z is just what the doctor ordered: plenty of sunshine (though not everywhere all the time) and pleasantly warm temperatures. Let's hope it can persist until the end of November?

    

    

    

What's not to like?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Looks like everyone is out raving tonight...not me I'm at home raving...dont worry I will address the nation with the ECM..its looking fine,if anything the high looks a tad more to the NE on this run...but that would be me nitpicking

Edited August 20, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Methuselah]

And here are the GEFS 12Z temperature ensembles. Apart from the two-day-long cooler blip (which may well not even occur) associated with the wee trickle of colder air from the NE, all is hunky-dory: 

    

[Frosty.]

 

 

The JMA 12h is going for retrogression longer term....if it was December I think this would be very popular, except there’s no coldies out of hibernation yet is there?  

 

[Mike Poole]

Bit late to the party today, and the operational runs look good for settled weather, some sun for everyone but those who are in places where whinging about cloud is an issue even with high pressure (I know there are some places where that is an issue).   Rather less chance of the high drifting east and settling up any southerly / plume chances I think now, that ship has sailed for the time being.  

So to the ECM clusters, T120-T168:

3 of 5 clusters persist with blocking, the last one looks really promising but only has 3 members.  Moving on to T192-T240:

1 and 3 go for -NAO and the high pressure drifts, 2 and 4 persist with blocking with high pressure continuing to influence the UK.  Where’s your money.

Finally, SSTs:

Cool for now, must be all that cloud cover around the UK, but the tripole signal is still there, and actually, going into winter, it is the northern part of that heat which has seemed to me to be elusive in recent times, so a bit of confidence that this pattern now may persist and strengthen into winter.  

[Mike Poole]

Pub run T168:

What’s not to like?  The heat is there to the south if the future evolution invites it, but even so, looks great for many areas.  

Edit, really good run this, T204, that heat low really helps…

Edited August 20, 2021 by Mike Poole

[StingJet]

Happy to run with that Mike

Still keeping a close eye on TS Henri ;

Following the Stormtrack on the GFS Ops, TS Henri transitioning to Hurricane status through tomorrow, with landfall around Long Island, thereafter transitioning back to a Tropical Depression over north-east US States, and final "Ex Trop" transition on approach to Nova Scotia.  The residual energy appears to absorbed over the North Atlantic into next week, south of Greenland. The net effect of low pressure over Greenland /Iceland appears to be helping our resident HP Cell stay firmly anchored to the UK, and the Jet Stream well to our north.  The pattern over the past few days has changed for us ,  we were seeing a breakdown of the HP on the run up to the BH weekend, where as now, generally fine weather has been extended through months end into the first week of September , then we may be facing a breakdown of the settled spell.

Edited August 20, 2021 by StingJet