Scotland Weather discussion

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

15 hours ago, edo said:

the models continue to take steps towards a cold outcome, still too early for confidence as to a snowy spell..... here we can see as early as 23rd the cold air start to flow towards us. I am almost at 80 per cent confidence it will be cold and seasonal for xmas day which is remarkable this far out. Thats mainly because everything says high pressure over us at that point....always a risk could be gloomy but im quietly confident.

Could do with kirkcaldy, ravelin, catch, LS, SS, etc giving some views ... lorenzo too and where is Mr Frost and Hairy Celt.... really hope they are ok.

funny story puffy made me laugh

Think you have seen my posts in model thread so you'll know how I'm seeing the pattern unfolding looking back to the cold easterly we had in February could be a nice match as were nearing christmas I had a mental note of 21st for the high to start aligning favorably, here's the potential similarities

    

[Sceptical]

Met have updated their long range forecast for Xmas. Snow for some, wet for the others. Worth a read.

[Sceptical]

The MO 10 day trend.

Slight difference compared to some of the ideas being kicked about on the MOD thread.

 

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

21 hours ago, edo said:

the models continue to take steps towards a cold outcome, still too early for confidence as to a snowy spell..... here we can see as early as 23rd the cold air start to flow towards us. I am almost at 80 per cent confidence it will be cold and seasonal for xmas day which is remarkable this far out. Thats mainly because everything says high pressure over us at that point....always a risk could be gloomy but im quietly confident.

Could do with kirkcaldy, ravelin, catch, LS, SS, etc giving some views ... lorenzo too and where is Mr Frost and Hairy Celt.... really hope they are ok.

funny story puffy made me laugh

Whit ye asking me fir! I ken fe*k all!

Or maybe it's another SS?

Anyway, for me, trends look good after this milder spell is over.

And today's ECM 12z is on board with this. Nice towards the middle in terms ae potential. 

I never go near the model thread masel. Just keep an eye on the ensembles and daily runs for signs of anything interesting.

I'd say it's a decent omen for this winter that there's already been some nice skiing in Scotland from early December snaw. Mibbies a straw in the wind...

[Ravelin]

I'm still firmly sitting on the fence with regards to Xmas weather at the moment. I'm pretty sure I'll not get blown off the fence on Xmas day or anytime in the run up as it's looking calm. I'm not sure how often I'll see my shadow from the fence, it depends on quite where the forecast high sits as to how much cloud it drags over us. I'm confident it'll be chilly sat on the fence from later this week onwards. As for whether there will be snow falling on the fence on or before Xmas, the models are just chopping and changing a bit too much to be sure. I'd say a 50/50 chance of at least some of us north of Hadrian's Wall seeing snow on or around Xmas day. 

In the immediate, rather mild today, a bit too much so. 

[edo]

yes @Kirkcaldy Weatherbeen avidly reading the thread......even enjoying it now having muted the most annoying posters..... latest being that jules character who seems like he may throw himself in front of a train due to a 10 day prediction of -2 uppers.

Looking even better now on the 23rd which is the date i have been tracking for what i see as the true start of the cold spell but i may be refining that date to earlier. Promising signs continuing.

[Quinach]

Day ended up with an impressive max of 12.0c.

Yet another lovely sunset, love the clarity of light at this time of year.

New day, new covid letter from the school - this variant really is meaning business.  Next few days are going to be dubiously interesting as if enough people have to test and isolate for 10 days, a larger problem than Covid is going to appear.

Edited December 15, 2021 by Quinach

[Norrance]

Mild today with a max of 10.5C and a min of 8.5C. Some hazy brightness at times. Temps falling a degree or two a day  from now until the beginning of next week then who knows?? 

[Stormeh]

Hello all! 

I have not been on here for a good few months but thought I would pop in and see how everyone is doing. Hopefully we will see some of the white stuff as we head into the Christmas and New Year period. 

[A Winter's Tale]

It looks like we have the sequel to ‘That ECM’ from 2012. 

If we end up with Synoptics like that for Christmas it would be spectacular. So too will be the reactions in the model thread if we end up with something a lot less appealing. 

The outlook for Christmas is incredibly uncertain with so many possibilities. At the moment I’d say we might end up with drab, overcast, drizzly conditions  and temperatures in the range of 4-9C but hopefully we get wintry weather for Christmas and beyond. 

Edited December 16, 2021 by A Winter's Tale

[Quinach]

Another lovely day. 

Light winds, max of 9c.  A few spots of rain at dawn but thereafter the skies have cleared leaving a mainly sunny end to the day. 

Another nice sunset onoging, will spare you another photo of those!

[Ruzzi]

Well after being the party popper, the GFS has abruptly fell into line on the 12z this afternoon, spouting this out for Xmas day itself

ECM this morning looks awesome too and UKMO probably slightly worse but not by much. 

I can't deny that I'm not starting to get a little excited.... Please don't collapse

 

[Ravelin]

Way too warm a day outside to be wearing a Xmas jumper in school, even with the thinnest t-shirt I could find under it. Last day for me tomorrow, so plenty of time for me to watch the models sucessfully count down to a Xmas day blizzard. I'd rather it holds off until then too as I may have to drive to Inverness and back on Xmas Eve to pick up the eldest son and would rather avoid doing that in the snow. 

[Hawesy]

It's bah humbug from me until I see the -12c 850 isotherm over the East Neuk at T+24. 

Seriously though it keeps things interesting on the weather front in the run up to Christmas. Worst case scenario for us east-coasters is the dull and cold but not cold enough set up that keeps air temperatures in the 3-4c range by day and night. I will happily take any other outcome! 

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Trends continue to look nice.

ECM has some decent charts with the right kindae features too' HP to the NW, undercutting lows to the south etc. 

[Mair Snaw]

Just had the oil tanked filled to the very top... xmas booze is in the cupboard and it booster day for me tomorrow..

Then its time to sit back relax and watch the snaw pile up.

What could go wrong its only a few days aways..

[edo]

yes tonight all roads lead to rome pretty much.... we all know though at still over a week away take it at caution. 

-12 uppers Xmas day though  

and those thicknesses.... can but dream 

 

Edited December 16, 2021 by edo

[A Winter's Tale]

The chances of cold and potentially snowy weather between the 23rd and 28th December has increased. Reading the model thread it seems a number of members are concerned about the blocking high being positioned too far north for snow south of the midlands. In such a scenario I’d expect Scotland to stay on the cold side but in my experience of following the models usually in a scenario such as this we see southward adjustments which increases the snow risk for parts of England and Wales whilst Scotland remains cold but generally drier.It will be very interesting to see things evolve in the next week.

At the moment I’m keeping expectations low but I feel it’s quite likely we’ll end up with a cold few days with the possibility of either marginal frontal snowfall or snow flurries from an easterly. It’s quite possible we could end up with significant frontal snowfall or convective snow showers and perhaps a more prolonged cold spell.

It’s refreshing to see this sort of potential in the charts considering the lack of cold and snow in December in the last decade. Already this season we’ve seen some promising charts fail to materialise and there’s always a danger of ending up with less snow with missed opportunities in a set up conducive to blocking than a more mobile, westerly regime. I’m hopeful our luck might change in the next couple of weeks and if not we should see further opportunities in the new year. 

[Puffy MacCloud]

Nicer day today with some reflected sunshine making it into my bedroom in the afternoon for a couple of hours. Wee bit of rain early in the morning. Wind stuck around a gentle breeze.

I’ve been persuaded to seek help from my GP as I’m getting worse and not better. AskMyGP says “$^&$%!* Medical Practice isn’t currently accepting online requests”. There isn’t an operational alternative option. If I don’t make it through this I swear I’m going to haunt the basket to Hell.

[edo]

fooks sake Puffy not good.......dont get me started on some of the treatment issues in this pandemic....dont give up make sure you and any family members hound your practice until you get the treatment/care required.

 

a spot on summary AWT and the pub run has thrown out another severe run again providing a likely decent convective event on the big day. Every run today pretty much says snow for scotland and less and less dry scenarios.

To help everyone here lets hope for a strong convective option followed by a stalling low in from the west.

[Sceptical]

Colder start to the day at -1C and fog. Frozen windscreen, can't find the de-icer or the scrapper.....

[Puffy MacCloud]

I managed to sneak through the surgery’s defences this morning in an online dawn raid and was able to leave a message, which I decided should be diagnostic rather than diatribal, despite initial urges. Now back in forward observation post awaiting a reaction… Dull morning outside. It’s bin day, just so as you know.

[Mair Snaw]

The wife took these on the way to get number 3 stuck in our arms..

[edo]

For any Scottish members reading the Model Thread this morning do not be alarmed by the comments. 

The attached chart I have highlighted to explain the reasons for such messages throwing toys out of prams even although the weather for even far south still every chance of being wintry of not nirvana. 

Edited December 17, 2021 by edo

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

1 hour ago, edo said:

For any Scottish members reading the Model Thread this morning do not be alarmed by the comments. 

The attached chart I have highlighted to explain the reasons for such messages throwing toys out of prams even although the weather for even far south still every chance of being wintry of not nirvana. 

Aye, charts look very promising for the whole country, even for me in the very far south. 

Battleground and - dare I say it (touches wood) - greenie high!