Scotland Weather discussion

[mistyqueen]

Morning Campers from a very gloomy Skye! Current temp 3.9c. Snow forecast this week for some Peeps but as usual I will not build up my hopes that we'll get anything more than a few light sleet showers. I know it won't be white Christmas here but if it's dry that'll do me! I'm watching the charts with interest in the Scottish Model Discussion thread! It's fairly sane in there and I reckon I'll be able to follow most of the discussion with ease! 

[Puffy MacCloud]

Started off (07:30) cloudy and frosty this morning with 7/8 cloud cover and a decided look of coldness about the place. Now the mist has descended again, the frost has changed to a thick dew, and it looks a tad less cold. All this discerned through the window of my private room, you understand. You’re in the company of royalty here, dear Scotties.

[Mair Snaw]

Is there a scottish model thread?? Ive not seen it..

[Ravelin]

2 minutes ago, Mair Snaw said:

Is there a scottish model thread?? Ive not seen it..

Yes, but we decided to hide it from you as we know how much of a trouble maker you are in MOD threads. 

No, you should be able to see it as one of the topics in the same 'Group' as this thread.

[Mair Snaw]

Me trouble??? Your beginning to sound like the wife...

[Ravelin]

56 minutes ago, Mair Snaw said:

Me trouble??? Your beginning to sound like the wife...

No idea what you are talking about. By the way, if you are going out we need milk. 

Crappy permagloom as expected and the temp has managed to edge back up to 2.4c. Day has been made a lot better by the arrival of a cheque for £420 from SSE as compensation for 4 days without power after Arwin. Earlier than I expected really. 

[Puffy MacCloud]

Mist has dispersed and I'm told I might get out tomorrow, which has raised my mood as much as the temperature on the models at 5 days plus.

[Mair Snaw]

@Puffy MacCloud good news that you may be free for xmas.. stay safe buddy.

[mardatha]

Magic Puffy! Gloomy calm still yukk here. In the hoose and oot.

[Glaswegianblizzard]

5 hours ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

Yeah have to say I’m getting a worse and worse feeling about this as time goes on. A few days ago the Norwegian met were showing Ice days here later this week, now 10c for this Thursday which is a crazy turnaround. I’m presuming that low in the Atlantic is coming for a visit.

It does still want to put us in the freezer, a high of -4 on the Monday after Xmas, but the way it’s being shoved back all the time doesn’t give me hope. Maybe it’s all just models and their struggle with a battleground scenario.

Actually now showing mild throughout the forecast period. I see some in both the main and the Scottish model threads still holding out hope. I wish I had your faith.

[Sceptical]

Met Xmas outlook 20-12'-21

"As the area of high pressure retreats to continental Europe, milder air and more unsettled weather will move in across the UK from the southwest. Where the initial front meets the colder air in place across Scotland there is a risk of sleet, snow and ice over higher ground before turning to rain later on Wednesday morning. Elsewhere bands of rain will move eastwards across the UK through the day.

Through Thursday further spells of rain push in from the west, running in to colder air trying to push south, which is likely to fall as snow over the highest ground of Scotland. Further south, under any cloud breaks areas of fog could develop overnight, slowly improving through Friday morning.

Northerly winds strengthen across Scotland on Christmas Eve, helping drive the intersection between cold and milder air further south. These strong winds will make it feel cold with the chance of blizzards over high ground in northern Scotland. In the south, mild air remains in place, with cloud and further spells of rain from the west

The key uncertainty for Christmas Day is where the boundary between cold and milder air will meet and therefore where the greater chances of any snow are. Currently the most likely regions to be in the colder air are Scotland, the far north of England and Northern Ireland where there is the possibility of some snow, particularly over higher ground. However small changes in the positioning of this boundary will significantly change the outlook. To the south of this, conditions remain unsettled; cloudy with spells of rain and some stronger winds at times, while to the north drier and brighter spells, with some wintry showers develop likely feeling very cold in the brisk northeasterly winds"

[Quinach]

My goodness it's grade A+++ Aberdeenshire Permagloom™ today as evidenced above.

Temperature has hovered between 3 and 4c since last night, light winds and dry.

Roll on some weather excitement.

[Russsty]

Quite the snap from space, of the foggy day from Saturday past.

[snowidea]

Where's @Hairy Celt? Missing his posts

[Northernlights]

A really gloomy day with a bit of drizzle and low cloud and a maximum of 3c    A real  old school hanging  winter  weather day just waiting for the snow!!!  I am sure its on its way.

[Norrance]

Low cloud, misty and damp at times here too. Temps up a bit from yesterday with a max of 4.2C.

Don't get those that like fog as a winter alternative to snow? A few mist/fog patches above rivers and in fields and along hillsides on a frosty morning are ok though. Fog and gloom like the last three days are not.

[Sanserit]

Damp, dreich and just a bit meh…that’s the only way I can sum up today. Maximum of 3.5c, minimum of 2.5c, no wind to speak of, no rain and no blue sky either.

[ghoneym]

May have been posted on here already but if not check this image out. So cool. EDIT. just noticed @Russstyposted earlier, sorry, defo worth sharing again tho 

Edited December 20, 2021 by ghoneym

[edo]

I still feel there is a decent chance of some seeing a white Xmas, model volatility is order of the day but scotland consistently looking on the cold side.... fingers crossed 

[A Winter's Tale]

1 hour ago, edo said:

I still feel there is a decent chance of some seeing a white Xmas, model volatility is order of the day but scotland consistently looking on the cold side.... fingers crossed 

The models have been remarkably volatile - a very unimpressive performance to say the least. I think it will take another day or two to clarify Christmas Day. A lot of the charts today (except ECM 12z) show cold air from the east over most of Scotland during Christmas. At the moment much of Scotland is likely to be north of the front (GFS 18z shows the front reaching the very far south) with any frontal snowfall likely to be somewhere between the Midlands and Northern Ireland - I must admit I’m not sure how much snow would settle at low levels. It wouldn’t take much of a shift north to bring southern and central Scotland into play but at the moment it looks like best chance of a white Christmas for some will come from snow flurries.

I think it’s almost certain that most of Scotland won’t snow on the ground on Christmas morning but some areas further east could have a covering by the end of the day. The uppers look pretty cold so I’m hoping this could enhance shower activity but at the moment I’d say snow flurries along the east coast is likely. 

It still looks likely that the cold spell spell will last to at least 29-31 Dec. The past couple of days have shown a variety of options for this period including largely dry, snow showers from a variety of wind directions and battleground snowfalls. In the next few days we should hopefully have a better idea about what this cold spell might deliver in terms of snow and low temperatures and whether it might last into the new year. Whatever this cold spell brings it looks like being one of the better December cold spells of the last 10 years. I hoping we can have a few days of winter sunshine, daytime temperatures little above freezing, some sharp frosts and enough snow for a covering. I would love the cold spell to be prolonged with some ice days and lying snow of at least a couple of inches. 

Edited December 20, 2021 by A Winter's Tale

[edo]

excellent analysis @A Winter's TaleI completely agree re the front and fully expect flurries from the e/ne that would bring a technical white Xmas to some. The romantic in me hopes everything fast forwards 12 hours and peps up unexpectedly and delivers on a wider scale but that's hope casting however the way things have been going with the models nothing would surprise me be 10c or - 10c 

[jellybaby1969]

Winter's tale I think your on the money with your analysis. Some south western area of Scotland may see something out of the front..north and east a few light flurries. Everywhere else bone dry.

[Stormeh]

Great post @A Winter's Tale

6 hours ago, snowidea said:

Where's @Hairy Celt? Missing his posts

Yes same here, loved his posts and also @Mr Frost

[101_North]

I see the Met forecast hinting at chance of some light snow tomorrow! Looking ahead to Christmas and it's looking like a drizzle fest here! 

Edited December 21, 2021 by 101_North

[grifter]

Will be surprised to see anything significant in the west, think it's more just going to be cold. Even 2010 we had hardly any snow here!