Scotland Weather discussion

[Mair Snaw]

@Sceptical in the mad house absolutely hilarious ..

[A Winter's Tale]

Looking drier for Christmas Day but still a decent chance of a white Christmas for eastern parts of Scotland. The GFS 12z has the front reaching southern Scotland but much weaker than previous runs. ECM 12z has the front in southern England. It looks very likely we are heading for the coldest spell of weather in December since 2010. Potentially very cold - especially ECM 12z after Christmas. It’s looking mostly dry away from the the east coast but there’s always the chance of features coming out of nowhere brining the risk of more widespread snowfall. 

Edited December 18, 2021 by A Winter's Tale

[Boydie]

Murky day today, but had a cracking sunset this afternoon which makes up for the fact my whole house is now in isolation until the 26th.

[Puffy MacCloud]

5 hours ago, JamesM said:

Stunning winters day and not a cloud in the sky. Frost persisted in the shade and also pretty foggy overnight. 

First day back at home after 6 days in Crosshouse Hospital with Covid. Double vaccinated and only 42 so certainly didn’t expect to find myself with such a bad dose. Hoping for some crisp winter weather as I slowly recover. 

You have my complete sympathy JamesM, and I hope your recovery continues at pace, but I bet you didn’t have to trick your way into hospital in the first place. I did. Yesterday I had to lie to the NHS to circumvent an impossible situation entirely concocted by my useless GP practice. Regular readers will recall that I previously thought I’d actually managed to penetrate my GP surgery’s impregnable defences earlier on in the week, and I had in a way, but I hadn’t really; I’d only got as far as the System Administrator. I did however receive a reply, and in fairly swift order. It said that as my enquiry related to Covid 19 related symptoms the surgery couldn’t deal with it due to ‘new’ advice from the Scottish Government insisting that all such matters be directed towards NHS 24 by phone on 111. That annoyed me because I have a respiratory condition that entails displaying respiratory system type symptoms without my lungs having any knowledge that these are inevitably similar to symptoms of other respiratory complaints, like, say, Covid 19 for instance. Any self-respecting GP practice would know that having one didn’t necessarily mean having the other. I resolved to respond with the snottiest of all snotty epistles ever, but was disturbed halfway through, after about three hours, by the phone ringing. The display said “GP Surgery”. Play it cool, Puff, play it cool “Hello,” said I. “Hello, this is Doctor “%&*£^%&” said she who doesn’t work Wednesdays because it spoils two long weekends at her holiday home in Fife, I’m calling regarding your request via AskMyGP.” “Oh good,” said I, “I won…” “So just to stop you there,” she says, (I can hear seagulls in the background.) “We have new instructions from Scottish Government saying we ‘must’ refer any cases with Covid 19 symptoms to NHS 24, and you have Covid 19 symptoms.” “No, I have pulmonary fibrosis, as you are well aware, and I’m very nearly unable to breath as we speak”, I managed to say without swearing. And without passing out. Just. “You could have Covid 19.” “No, I did a test yesterday and two days before and I don’t have Covid 19.” “Can’t help, Scottish Government says I can’t. And I’m very busy getting ready to go on a course.” “St. Andrew’s?” “Pardon?” The next bit isn’t capable of being reported here due to the potential for children to be present. Or adults of a sensitive disposition. Or moderators. Right, 111 it is then. For those who haven’t called NHS 24 on 111, it’s a question and answer pre-recording type thingy. It’s also currently configured to identify Covid 19 cases, with a limited number of other conditions, and reject all others by referring these back to their GPs. Ring, ring, ring, click, “Hello, this is NHS 24, please listen to the following questions and respond as appropriate. 1, Do you have Covid 19?” “No.” Then it asked maybe four or five other questions and concluded, “You do not currently qualify for NHS 24 assistance. You should refer to your GP. Thank you for calling.” Click. “Bugger.” 111 again. Same message, same first question, “Do you have Covid 19?” “Yes.” “Please hold the line, an operator will be with you momentarily.” “GET-IN!!!” “Hello, I’m the operator, my name is Angel, what symptoms do you have?” “Em, well, actually, I don’t have Covid 19 but this was the only way I could get through to you.” “Sorry, can’t help, you should refer to your GP.” Click. “Bugger!” 111 again, again. Same message, same first question, “Do you have Covid 19?” “Yes.” “Please hold the line, an operator will be with you momentarily.” “Hello, I’m the operator, my name is Hope, what symptoms do you have?” “ I have shortness of breath, high temperature, continuous cough, loss of taste, loss of smell, rancid boils and suppurations (steady, Puff, steady,) and I’m about to pass out (which was true). She asked for my name and address and dispatched an ambulance, which arrived half an hour later, just as my daughters arrived. What happened next deserves a tale of its own, but we’ve all had enough of this for now, so I’ll precis the next bit. I told the very nice paramedic ladies the truth and explained the sad tale that had tricked them into this situation. Completely unphased they started connecting wires, pipes and cables to me and soon the box of tricks was blasting out a series of beeps, boops, squeaks, donks, and trills in a concerto of salvation. “You’re not at all well,” they said, “why did you wait so long to call us out?” “Emmmm….” “Never mind, we’re taking you to hospital right faffing now.” “Crosshouse?” “No, it’s full, Ayr.” And here I am, having done an ECG or two, CT Scan, X-rays, blood tests aplenty including that horrible one they do in your wrist, and constant SATS, blood pressure tests, heart rate and probably others they did in my sleep last night. So far so good. Oh, here comes another test…

Daughters brought down some stuff for me this afternoon, travelling down in perfect sunshine, and drove past a view of Arran floating in a sea of mist, as attached. Half an hour later the fog was almost too dense for them to get home. Bonkers weather.

Edited December 18, 2021 by Puffy MacCloud

[Puffy MacCloud]

2 hours ago, Norrance said:

Haven't heard from Puffy today. Hope that he is ok and getting the treatment he needs.

I am, and I am, thank you kindly for asking Norrance.

Saw this a bit earlier. Alloway, which is where my ipad approximates my location, is right on the coast. Snowy beach walks! Whoop whoop!!

Edited December 18, 2021 by Puffy MacCloud

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Wee bro captured this earlier :

Loving the 12z ECM.

#greeniehigh

EDIT. Ensembles looking promising...

 

Edited December 18, 2021 by Scottish-Irish Skier

[edo]

wow @Puffy MacCloudyour a superstar and hopefully be on the mend......

an all to familiar tale these days. It pales into insignificance but last year amidst severe toothache i was advised they couldnt drill due to covid rules on NHS and my tooth would need to be removed.......but i could go private for treatment and save the tooth as that was allowed. So because i was fortunate enough to afford private my tooth was saved. Makes me angry to think of others not so lucky.

 

Charts looking fab as AWT has eloquently expained above, as someone near to the east starting to dream kids could see first white xmas.

[edinburgh_1992]

Seems like the temperature inversion has reached its limit, the temperature in Edinburgh is steadily climbing and now at 4C. 
 

I thought it would drop well below 0 tonight, last night was definitely colder. 

[A Winter's Tale]

GFS is very snowy for much of Scotland for Christmas Day. It stays cold until breaking down around 30/31 Dec with some leading edge of snow. 

ECM interestingly shows frontal snow on the 23rd Dec. Largely cold and dry until the 27th with frontal snow in southern Scotland. It remains cold to the end of the run. 

Christmas remains very uncertain with regards to where that front ends up. We should have a decent idea by Wednesday. 

It looks like staying cold until the 30th at least. It remains to be seen what the period between 25th-30th will offer in terms of weather conditions. Very cold and dry with some snow showers in coastal areas, or some disturbances in flow brining snow to wider areas or even convective snow from an easterly.  If it stays predominately dry then there should be opportunities for battleground snow if the Atlantic makes a return. 

Both GFS and ECM are a little disappointing in FI in terms of the strength of blocking to the north west compared to previous runs. This makes the longevity of cold less certain but it’s too far away to be concerned (models normally underestimate blocking in the long run). Even if heights weaken a little to the north west there’s still a strong possibility of recurring episodes of cold - potentially very snowy. It’s a high risk/high reward scenario and I believe some of the notable periods of winter weather in the past occurred with slight heights to the N/NW. A solid Greenland high is the best option but not the be and end all. 

[jellybaby1969]

Good morning guys...down in Essex this weekend  n it's grey foggy and damp !!  Madhouse getting a bit feisty this morning as the more northern members are rejoycing in what could be a snowy Xmas period !! Midlands south members TOTP ..oh well  such is life.  Models still chopping n changing tho it does look likely somewhere in the UK will have a white Xmas.

[decomm18]

Dreich morning in downtown Falkirk this morning, but the fog in Callendar Park last night was very atmospheric, even if i spent most of the walk worrying about location of my dogs! 

[Sceptical]

A dark, gloomy start with 100% cloud cover. Currently 2°C, calm and feeling damp. My least favourite type of weather.

Optimistic ahead of the colder, and hopefully snowier weather for Scotland next week. 

Snow symbols now starting to appear in the Scottish forecast Friday and Saturday. For now, only locations with decent altitude. It's a start  

 

 

Edited December 19, 2021 by Sceptical

[Ravelin]

Aye, 2.2C and no sign of the heavy frost having survived the night despite having lasted though the day yesterday. 

[Sceptical]

1 hour ago, Sceptical said:

A dark, gloomy start with 100% cloud cover. Currently 2°C, calm and feeling damp. My least favourite type of weather.

Optimistic ahead of the colder, and hopefully snowier weather for Scotland next week. 

Snow symbols now starting to appear in the Scottish forecast Friday and Saturday. For now, only locations with decent altitude. It's a start  

 

 

Snow now expected at the ski centres Wednesday onwards. I'm up Aviemore on Wednesday. The journey over the Lecht might be that bit more enjoyable  

[NUT]

Fog lifted into low cloud still can't get the sun though...........now if you believe these model runs snaw xmas day

[Puffy MacCloud]

Good morning all you free-roamers out there. It’s a foggy looking day from where I’m sitting and I can see frost on the ground, or maybe a heavy dew, so it looks cold and even in here it feels cold, especially when one is wearing one of those ridiculous goonies where your bahoochie hings oot the back. Why do they make you wear those? For fun I suppose. No sign of the fog lifting any time soon. BBC weather app has given up on snow for Christmas at this location but it’s been replaced with cold temperatures and sunny skies, which is absolutely the next best thing.

[101_North]

The stunning winter weather of yesterday morning has given way to permagloom pish!

[Sceptical]

Possible White Christmas for Scotland. 

High pressure still in charge but change on the way in time for Christmas

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

The quiet, calm but often cloudy and murky weather continues but as high pressure begins to ease away in the run-up to Christmas, changes are on the way.

 

[Mair Snaw]

Stay out the mad house... its about to turn nasty.. all the snaw is going to end up in the North.. and Scotland.. does boil my pee when they all put up snaw charts with Scotland cropped off. If the 12z continues i fear for the health of 90% of them.

@Puffy MacCloud hope you continue to get better and well done for making sure you got yourself seen..

[Ravelin]

22 minutes ago, Mair Snaw said:

Stay out the mad house... its about to turn nasty.. all the snaw is going to end up in the North.. and Scotland.. does boil my pee when they all put up snaw charts with Scotland cropped off. If the 12z continues i fear for the health of 90% of them.

@Puffy MacCloud hope you continue to get better and well done for making sure you got yourself seen..

Looked at the 6Z GFS and decided it was safer to avoid the MOD thread for a bit. I know what you mean about those charts, although I'm sure if they could find charts showing just Birmingham and South they use those instead. I gave in this morning and felt compelled to point out that they may not get snow along the English south coast much but they do benefit from better weather in the summer. Its a trade off. 

If we do have a white Xmas up here I think we should photo bomb the MOD thread. 

Edited December 19, 2021 by Ravelin

[Puffy MacCloud]

14 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Looked at the 6Z GFS and decided it was safer to avoid the MOD thread for a bit. I know what you mean about those charts, although I'm sure if they could find charts showing just Birmingham and South they use those instead. I gave in this morning and felt compelled to point out that they may not get snow along the English south coast much but they do benefit from better weather in the summer. Its a trade off. 

If we do have a white Xmas up here I think we should photo bomb the MOD thread. 

You mean you went in there armed with nothing but logic and fair-minded compromise?! Wow! The sheer, mad-cap bravery of the man.

The sun is breaking through the fog now giving that gorgeous quality of light that makes everything look slightly soft and hazy, as if one is looking through very lightly obscured glass. Oh no, hang on a minute, I’m havering again. I am looking through lightly obscured glass. Kindly unread this last bit.

[Stormeh]

37 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Looked at the 6Z GFS and decided it was safer to avoid the MOD thread for a bit. I know what you mean about those charts, although I'm sure if they could find charts showing just Birmingham and South they use those instead. I gave in this morning and felt compelled to point out that they may not get snow along the English south coast much but they do benefit from better weather in the summer. Its a trade off. 

If we do have a white Xmas up here I think we should photo bomb the MOD thread. 

Well said! 

I think us in Scotland will be delighted if the 06z was to come off, many of us would see a white Christmas. I am 36 but can only remember 2010 seeing snow on the ground on the big day here in the Southside of Glasgow. Maybe there was in the 90s but I can’t remember? I have trouble remembering last week never mind 20-30 years ago

Hopefully the 12z runs continue showing snow for us for Christmas Day. After the last couple of years of covid taking over our lives then I think it would cheer many of us up waking up to a white Christmas. I do hope the roads stay clear though for people travelling to see family and friends

[Mair Snaw]

1 hour ago, Ravelin said:

Looked at the 6Z GFS and decided it was safer to avoid the MOD thread for a bit. I know what you mean about those charts, although I'm sure if they could find charts showing just Birmingham and South they use those instead. I gave in this morning and felt compelled to point out that they may not get snow along the English south coast much but they do benefit from better weather in the summer. Its a trade off. 

If we do have a white Xmas up here I think we should photo bomb the MOD thread. 

I did see that post... we put up with grey damp summers while they sip cocktails...

And yep im all up for some spamming action over the holiday period.. not been on a ban in almost 2 years..

[GraemeB]

Afternoon Fellow Jocks - did someone mention snow?  For Christmas?

Think I might hang around for a bit - SACRA mode activated.

[Ravelin]

Just back from walking the dog and although currently 3.2C and utterly calm it's perishing out there in full damp feeling Aberdeenshire permagloom. Such a contrast to yesterday.