Scotland Weather discussion

[A Winter's Tale]

GFS 00z shows a shift north for Christmas but still showing a white Christmas for many - though we can’t afford another shift northwards. A very good run 28th December onwards. 

The ECM on the other hand shows a southward shift which has raised the spirits of members south of the border in the model thread. Still showing a white Christmas for much of Scotland away from the south west with estimated depths generally in the range of 2-5cm. The main snow risk for Christmas in the Midlands. The easterly also returns from the 24th-26th. It remains cold and blocked to the end of the run with the potential fur very low temperatures with slack heights during day 9/10. 

[Sceptical]

A cold and foggy start. Current temperature is -4.5°c. Lower down the valley the usual suspects will be colder still.

 

[Ravelin]

Following on from above, and so you don't have to suffer the gnashing of teeth in the MOD thread due to the models not showing snow drifts on the S coast of England... 

Can't complain about that set of potential 850 temps for NE Scotland. Even if it doesn't snow its going to be festively cold. 

Edited December 18, 2021 by Ravelin

[Sceptical]

29 minutes ago, drm said:

Mistake or a huge temperature inversion? 14c in the mountains and - 4c here in Aberdeen. 

The latter. Alex Deakin made mention of the inversion during the latest MO 10 day trend.

I've been watching day time temperatures for various locations across the UK. According to the Met , Wednesday looks the coldest day next week before temperatures pick up Thursday and Friday.

Not sure I buy that  

[Northernlights]

Gone from 0c clear and frosty last night to foggy and 1c this morning. Will test the pneumonia vaccines the calves got three weeks ago.

[Ravelin]

Now that I've been up and opened the curtains, there's a fairly thick frost outside, no doubt enhanced by the mist drifting up from the very foggy looking valley below. 

Edited December 18, 2021 by Ravelin

[Hawesy]

1 hour ago, drm said:

Mistake or a huge temperature inversion? 14c in the mountains and - 4c here in Aberdeen. 

Yep impressive inversion this morning, -6c in Aboyne and +14c at the Cairnwell! 
 

4c and foggy here.

Edited December 18, 2021 by Hawesy

[Sceptical]

 Once this clears, a sunny day until dusk.

Anyway, PCR time...the Christmas break might start a few days earlier  

Edited December 18, 2021 by Sceptical

[edo]

1 hour ago, A Winter's Tale said:

GFS 00z shows a shift north for Christmas but still showing a white Christmas for many - though we can’t afford another shift northwards. A very good run 28th December onwards. 

The ECM on the other hand shows a southward shift which has raised the spirits of members south of the border in the model thread. Still showing a white Christmas for much of Scotland away from the south west with estimated depths generally in the range of 2-5cm. The main snow risk for Christmas in the Midlands. The easterly also returns from the 24th-26th. It remains cold and blocked to the end of the run with the potential fur very low temperatures with slack heights during day 9/10. 

in this clearly complex scenario how close do you think it needs to be to Dec25 before we have an actual clear idea what's likely to be happening? 72 or 48 or even 24. I don't mean where will snow if at all but rather how far north/south everything is. 

[JoeShmoe]

Can’t be bothered to read up the manic ups and downs in the MAD thread , what’s the possible outlook for here later next week ? Chance of snow at Xmas ?

[A Winter's Tale]

41 minutes ago, edo said:

in this clearly complex scenario how close do you think it needs to be to Dec25 before we have an actual clear idea what's likely to be happening? 72 or 48 or even 24. I don't mean where will snow if at all but rather how far north/south everything is. 

I’m no expert but I’d say we should have a decent grasp of the general situation at 72-96hrs. Of course with snow it’s often a nowcasting event. I think early next week we’ll have a decent idea of where any frontal snowfall will be.

Given we are already seeing low pressure moving south (as expected) I think much of the potential frontal snowfall will end up somewhere between Manchester and the English Channel - possibly further south than that if the trend continues.

As for Scotland we would likely be looking out for snow showers (most likely from the east). It’s uncertain whether we’d end up with proper convective snowfall or just flurries. Regardless, if the atmosphere is cold enough for snow there’s always the chance of surprises popping up at short notice (as was the case in late November). 

Edited December 18, 2021 by A Winter's Tale

[Stormeh]

Latest GFS run still looking promising for many parts of Scotland for the big day next week.

Also looking good as we head towards the New Year..

 

Fingers crossed the charts are still showing this come midweek

[NUT]

Fog descended last night and not shifted. Pretty cold too but IF (big IF) some of the models are correct we be deep in the freezer soon enough...............

[Ruzzi]

14 hours ago, A Winter's Tale said:

Some similarities with the cold spell of late December 2000:

21 Dec 2000

21 Dec 2021 

22 Dec 2000

22 Dec 2021

23 Dec 2000

23 Dec 2021

24 Dec 2000

24 Dec 2021

25 Dec 2000

25 Dec 2021

26 Dec 2000

26 Dec 2021

27 Dec 2000

27 Dec 2021

That cold spell started around Christmas Eve and lasted to around New Year’s Eve. It wasn’t as prolonged as many of the classic cold spells but it was quite a notable period of weather. 

Temperatures at Glasgow airport:

24th 4/1

25th 2/-2

26th -3/-5

27th -1/-6

28th -1/-9

29th -3/-10

30th -3/-11

31st 4/-6

 

The period between 26th-30th Dec 2000 saw the joint most consecutive days of maximum temperatures -1C or lower (equal to Dec 2010) in records since 1973. There was quite a notable snowfall around the 28th with depths around 15-20cm+ in the Glasgow area. The weather during that period would not have looked out of place in 2010. 

Looking at the archives the main difference between 2000 and 2031 is the shape of the low pressure system in the Atlantic (elongated in 2000, bowling ball in 2021).

 

The potential snowfall in the Christmas period also reminds me a little of 26 Feb 2001. 

Well I hope you're right about the last chart because that gave me the best 24 hour snow event I've experienced.... I lived near Shotts at the time and woke up in the morning to drifts covering vans, snow to ridiculous depths and I could even walk up the drifts onto the roofs of the bungalows, truly unreal event.

I have however had better overall periods:

2009-2010 where we had about 30 days of snow on the ground, breaking up ice 4 inches thick on the road outside the house which was under a blanket of compacted snow, the Ice was literally like lifting slabs! Snow depths reaching a couple of feet at times. 

November - December 2010: snowed every day for 7 days in a row whereby the level snow depth in the garden hit waist height and then a 2 day break before the infamous stalling front from the North on the 6th decemeber, cheery bye transport minister and hello M8 Arctic carpark. 

March 2013 (don't recall the exact date).... An overnight period of perfect convection left over a foot of level snow and drifts but yet when I had left work in Bellshill to head home at 4am, there was barely a covering... Drove up to Newhouse and under the rail bridge towards Newmains and it was like I had drove into a different country such a localised event from memory. 

Red warning period 2018: never been so excited watching charts waiting for that to hit, the 3 or 4 day period was ridiculous! Insane charts!! 

 

And then February 2021.... Monumental 2 days here in Caldercruix, level snow hitting a foot and a half and drifts a fair bit higher. To go from nothing to the scenes that were here in the space of 2 days was unbelievable!:

Ps those tiny little black spots in the snow are the top of the 3 foot rubber bollards to mark the edge of the road

 

Okay so I got carried away but nice to reminisce before a potentially good spell materialising....

 

 

 

Edited December 18, 2021 by Ruzzi

[Benvironment]

I did a double take just now when I glanced at the weather station. 10C here above the fog!

We had a low of 2.3C this morning with a good frost too. Unusual for us to get a diurnal range like that in winter. I was in the Cairngorms yesterday and within maybe ten steps, at about 1150m, you could feel the air get very suddenly warm. T-shirt weather on Stob Coire Sputan Dearg but still icy underfoot, with a glaze of ice on the paths and rocks

...but then the walk out back to Derry Lodge was thick with frost, where it had sat all day. Lovely weather!

[Ravelin]

High of 1.9C here so far today but frost in shaded areas is not going to thaw, even in areas exposed to the sun its reluctant to disappear. Currently 1.5C so maybe on its way back down again, especially as the sun is getting very low again. Been a stunning winters day. 

[JamesM]

Stunning winters day and not a cloud in the sky. Frost persisted in the shade and also pretty foggy overnight. 

First day back at home after 6 days in Crosshouse Hospital with Covid. Double vaccinated and only 42 so certainly didn’t expect to find myself with such a bad dose. Hoping for some crisp winter weather as I slowly recover. 

[mardatha]

Been sunny and lovely here last two days, sun just gone down behind the hill now. Pic taken yesterday morning.

[Sceptical]

Another cold night in store, hardly a cloud in the sky.

Coldest temperature noted on my journey to get a Covid-19 test done this morning was -6°C at Whitehouse.

Speedy recovery @JamesM

 

Edited December 18, 2021 by Sceptical

[shuggee]

Similar stuff here - beautiful winter's day after my thirteenth air frost at -1.3C.

 

And that's tonight's full moon peeping up!

Good luck from me to both @JamesM and @Puffy MacCloud who've been under the weather.

[Norrance]

Fog didn't clear here today though it thinned a bit at times. Pic from my walk this afternoon shows moon just above the building through the thinnish layer of fog. Temp at the time was 1.1C on my Oregon w/s though 0C on the Accurite. As it was damp rather than still frosty I go with the former. 
Looks like odds shortening somewhat on a white Christmas and then the cold extending well into January. When was the last time the synoptics for real cold coincided with the statistically coldest time of the Year?

Edited December 18, 2021 by Norrance

[snowidea]

We drove over to Bearsden and broke the mother in law out of the care home for a run in the van. Sunny and clear in Falkirk, thick pea soup fog in Bearsden. Drove up past Carbeth straight into a fantastic temperature inversion. 

[Norrance]

2 hours ago, shuggee said:

Similar stuff here - beautiful winter's day after my thirteenth air frost at -1.3C.

 

And that's tonight's full moon peeping up!

Good luck from me to both @JamesM and @Puffy MacCloud who've been under the weather.

Haven't heard from Puffy today. Hope that he is ok and getting the treatment he needs.

[Northernlights]

Foogy all day here with maximum of 2c. Needed house lights on for most of the day too.

[shuggee]

Quick reminder that if you want to enter the Xmas Day weather forecasting competition - you've got until midnight tonight!