model discussion Model output discussion - closing in on Winter

[northwestsnow]

27 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The ec control follows the op to day 7 

Not what I wanted to hear..

That det was poor,if its snow you are after and you are south of the Pennines,at least !

[Huntforsnow]

9 minutes ago, BruenSryan said:

Never post in here but bloody hell talk about ridiculousness, 106cm apparently on the ECM 12z in the Irish Midlands... even for a model like this that assumes every flake that falls will settle is something else. Unlikely

Nice! But can I see Scotland too?  

[sheikhy]

Absolutely brilliant mean!!op should be a big outlier!!!

[Singularity]

On the 12z ECM and UKMO runs there’s a double-whammy of undesirable (for S. UK cold/snow seekers) behaviour: The deep cold low that’s over Scandinavia on Wed moves on just a little too quickly, while the high to ours west takes on too much of an omega shape.

This effectively parts the cold air down the middle, taking some east of the UK and some west, leaving not a lot to cross our islands.
 

That it’s two big factors lowers the odds of it actually turning out that way, as does one of them being a rare omega high formation.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Absolutely brilliant mean!!op should be a big outlier!!!

The mean although better if its good, isn't really that instructive at this point mate.

Blue has commented the control follows the det..

Personally I'd be happy with some colder Frosty weather, 14 degrees and drizzle is disgusting .

[ICE COLD]

Well the mean still looks pretty bloody good my friends

[MATTWOLVES 3]

17 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It was good last year when the other seasonal models were poor.  I think you have to ask the question why?  If the current predicted spell lasts any time at all (and let’s not get ahead of ourselves) then why are the seasonal models missing it.  One question I have, is do they include, and if they do include, model correctly the impact of solar activity on the weather?  As they seem to mess up closer to a solar minimum, in my admittedly subjective, experience.  Anyone know?

 

For me Mike Long range forecasting is still very much an infancy regarding overall success rates. We know these models take into account the atmospheric and the conditions of the oceans over these several month periods.

Some of these predictions rely on the Earth system variables,which can have long time scales...many months infact) 

So we have the ENSO cycles which situate over the tropical Pacific and the affects of this are felt around the globe.

But with a rapidly changing climate,some of these predictions are going to be more prone to error! You mention the solar activity for instance...not everyone is convinced its plays such a big role as many of us thinks it does.

And to summarise when we have the Arctic regions warming at a much more rapid rate than the mid latitudes,we again generate much more wildly swinging variables. This not even taking into account about the gulf stream being much weaker than previously! 

I think its going to become increasingly difficult for these long range models to nail down the exact patterns as the climate shifts! Especially in the short to mid term.

Edited November 18, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z clusters.  

T72-T96, little to be said, purple borders (Atlantic ridge) all round, and little difference:

T120-T168, and here we see the op in the minority cluster 3, but the other two on track for the northerly:

T192-T240, I slightly prefer cluster 1 here (27 members) cluster 2 maybe collapsing a bit at the end.

T264+ and I think really all bets are off by this point.  Clusters 1 and 4 preferred, but if the op runs are uncertain by T144, the ENS are uncertain by this point.  

[nick sussex]

I think the word Meh sums up tonight’s outputs ! 

They’re not crxp enough to throw some toys out of the pram and neither are they good enough to have coldies bulk ordering ear muffs and scarfs !

Overall the outputs have downgraded the cold and wintry potential but the margins are quite small and could still edge the other way so all is not lost .

 

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

EC Mean looks great at 168 then 192, then it’s cold grip weakens. The good thing is that 216-240 is way out in FI. 

I didn’t think that the mean looked too bad out to day 10. The cold doesn’t appear to relax much and if anything it deepens a little by day 10

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM 12z clusters.  

T72-T96, little to be said, purple borders (Atlantic ridge) all round, and little difference:

T120-T168, and here we see the op in the minority cluster 3, but the other two on track for the northerly:

T192-T240, I slightly prefer cluster 1 here (27 members) cluster 2 maybe collapsing a bit at the end.

T264+ and I think really all bets are off by this point.  Clusters 1 and 4 preferred, but if the op runs are uncertain by T144, the ENS are uncertain by this point.  

Not convinced by two clusters days 8/10.  plenty more runs needed yet! 

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The mean although better if its good, isn't really that instructive at this point mate.

Blue has commented the control follows the det..

Personally I'd be happy with some colder Frosty weather, 14 degrees and drizzle is disgusting .

Get what your saying mate but pretty sure the control follows the op 95% of the time (especially up to day 6 or 7 ) same as the gfs op and control . Are they run at the same resolution ? Any way the mean looks great and a lot colder than the op especially further south

[Bartlett High]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I think the word Meh sums up tonight’s outputs ! 

They’re not crxp enough to throw some toys out of the pram and neither are they good enough to have coldies bulk ordering ear muffs and scarfs !

Overall the outputs have downgraded the cold and wintry potential but the margins are quite small and could still edge the other way so all is not lost .

 

I'd say that sums things up rather nicely.

[ICE COLD]

The op was an outlier on 850s anyway

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Get what your saying mate but pretty sure the control follows the op 95% of the time (especially up to day 6 or 7 ) same as the gfs op and control . Are they run at the same resolution ? Any way the mean looks great and a lot colder than the op especially further south

EC snow depths tonight...

Look at Ireland !!!

[Decemberof2010]

20 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Looks like the cold is getting ready to pounce here. Anyone got anything that UKMO could stand for?

Ummmmmm

Keep 

Making 

Overreactions 

(not you btw)

[sheikhy]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The mean although better if its good, isn't really that instructive at this point mate.

Blue has commented the control follows the det..

Personally I'd be happy with some colder Frosty weather, 14 degrees and drizzle is disgusting .

Totally agree but we gota take some positivity from the output!!had the mean been the same as the op it would av been almost certainly been curtains for us mate!!as it stands though the mean is brilliant and still keeps us in with a chance!!

[Frosty.]

Considering it’s not even winter yet, this is a wintry ECMWF 12z ensemble mean in the mid / longer term!  

Needle nose Ned agrees.. BING!

Edited November 18, 2021 by jon snow

[winterof79]

God help the newbies.

The means great.....take no notice of the mean.....coz he says.....

The means ok .....

Output going backward.....

no it's ok......

The perils of over analysis every run.

The trend is much colder than now and lets let it play out a touch before measuring how much snow we haven't yet got. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Hi all,...just catching up

the ECM op was way out of order,...relax cos there will be plenty more chopping and changing yet to come,...I WILL ASSURE YOU.

i will have a round up in a bit.

 

[Eagle Eye]

On 18/11/2021 at 19:40, SqueakheartLW said:

Looks like the cold is getting ready to pounce here. Anyone got anything that UKMO could stand for?

Here's some bad ones

UK MO
Keep
Mild
(Arctic)Oscillation 
(I don't know either)

Under
Keen scientists
Meet
Outcast snaw lover
 

UK MO
Keep
Mild 
Outliers

[Cold Winter Night]

The word "potential" is a much hated word in these threads during the winter months, because for many it brings with it a truck load of bad memories of mouthwatering output in FI that never materialized. The winter garden has many paths.

However, if the details of tonight's 12z output are not 100% to your liking, maybe it's better to take a step back and look at the bigger picture.

"Potential" really is the word I would use to describe the model output, today again.
The repeated attempts to amplify in the Atlantic, instead of returning to standard zonal weather give us hope.

As long as we see High 500 hPa Geopotential dominating Eastern Canada and Greenland, and Low Geopotential dominating in Northern Siberia/Nova Zembla, the door to several wintry scenarios stays open, even if next week is not as cold as 2010 (It will be colder than it is now though).

Renewed amplification, Scandi height rises, patterns we have seen in 1981 and 1996 for example remain real options IMO.

As always, there are no guarantees. If you want that, this hobby isn't for you.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

12 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Hi all,...just catching up

the ECM op was way out of order,...relax cos there will be plenty more chopping and changing yet to come,...I WILL ASSURE YOU.

i will have a round up in a bit.

 

Very respectable mean si..further on and we get huge scatter as would be expected...plenty of cold options remain though,so anyone who thinks it's a quick cold snap,then a return to mild zonal could be very much mistaken.

[knocker]

To varying degrees the ext mean anomalies remain amplified with a NW upper flow and thus still unsettled, perhaps a N/S bias, with temps below average. But both the gfs and ecm deamplify during the period and shift the pattern east with temps rising to around average

[Geordiesnow]

9 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

God help the newbies.

The means great.....take no notice of the mean.....coz he says.....

The means ok .....

Output going backward.....

no it's ok......

The perils of over analysis every run.

The trend is much colder than now and lets let it play out a touch before measuring how much snow we haven't yet got. 

I think it's very easy to overanalyse each run in terms of the details. 

The thing I will say, the ridging does look a little better and the UKMO is the most encouraging in this aspect. In these situations it's always the case of how cold it will get and how long it's last, both which is quite uncertain at the moment. 

[jules216]

The Control run that follows OP ends with +14C for London towards the end of the run. It is also poor for my location which means the cold just vanishes. Even with the blocked Atlantic and output still 120h+ away, this synoptic is nothing special like some posts would encourage you to think. There have been many many autumns with similar transient northerlies and interesting hemispheric views this tíme of the year. The most striking thing though is that the autumn is nearing its end and we are chasing first -4/-6 uppers to excite us with zilch Snow events throughout anywhere in Europe below 1000m asl excluding north Scandi. And this with the ideal background weak/mod LA Nina,-EQBO, -PDO, -IOD, early Canadian warming. Our highest station at 2655m is showing today 0cm Snow and Meteo station in Capital city Bratislava has recorded 0 days with ground frost all autumn.