Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[That ECM]

16 hours ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Yes that’s a positive change. But interestingly they’ve kept the low chance of severe cold. So they think that is worth mentioning. Interesting times ahead

Hopefully they will remove the word low today. 

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

A pattern change is coming. Turning colder

Saturday 30 December to – Sunday 7 January

Unsettled and becoming chillier

Monday 8 January to – Sunday 14 January

Colder than average. Some wintry showers

Monday 15 January to – Sunday 28 January

Possibly less cold for a while

Further ahead

Confidence is low for the second half of January. There should be a continuation of a similar pattern for a while, with those cold north-easterly flows lingering, although low pressure systems could start edging farther north. This would bring more precipitation into at least the southern UK and perhaps further north, which could be snow in places. Locations will depend on exactly how far north any systems come.

Later in the month, it is possible that we will see a change in the pattern, with low pressure becoming more dominant. In that case it could become less cold, with temperatures rising closer to the seasonal average overall, and possibly above, but there would still be chances of snow on the northern side of these low pressure systems. However, there is a polar vortex disruption going on which can change patterns at the surface two to four weeks later, and that might just reinforce the cold possibilities.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 4 Jan - Saturday 13 Jan

This period will start in an unsettled fashion, with showers in many places, and these will be heavy at times, with temperatures around normal for early January. During the rest of the period there will be a gradual trend towards more settled and somewhat colder conditions with some frosty nights (perhaps becoming widespread and severe in time). Occasional unsettled spells are still possible, but these generally much more regionalised, and infrequent than conditions of late. As temperatures fall, the chance of any precipitation falling as sleet and snow increases, particularly over high ground and especially over northern parts of the UK, but not exclusively so by any means. As well as frost and ice by night, some freezing fog is likely to develop as well.

Sunday 14 Jan - Sunday 28 Jan

Compared to normal, there is an increased chance of colder than average conditions during this period. Currently the chance of widespread severe cold is still deemed low, but still the risk of impacts from cold, ice and snow is greater than normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[DOdo]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Thursday 4 Jan - Saturday 13 Jan

This period will start in an unsettled fashion, with showers in many places, and these will be heavy at times, with temperatures around normal for early January. During the rest of the period there will be a gradual trend towards more settled and somewhat colder conditions with some frosty nights (perhaps becoming widespread and severe in time). Occasional unsettled spells are still possible, but these generally much more regionalised, and infrequent than conditions of late. As temperatures fall, the chance of any precipitation falling as sleet and snow increases, particularly over high ground and especially over northern parts of the UK, but not exclusively so by any means. As well as frost and ice by night, some freezing fog is likely to develop as well.

Sunday 14 Jan - Sunday 28 Jan

Compared to normal, there is an increased chance of colder than average conditions during this period. Currently the chance of widespread severe cold is still deemed low, but still the risk of impacts from cold, ice and snow is greater than normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

Positive signs in the making. 

[That ECM]

While the Met keep this wording, talk of a toppler is premature imo.

[That ECM]

Compared to normal, there is an increased chance of colder than average conditions during this period. Currently the chance of widespread severe cold is still deemed low, but still the risk of impacts from cold, ice and snow is greater than normal.

 

conversation went, just put yesterday’s we’ve got parties to get to.

Edited December 31, 2023 by That ECM

[Dancerwithwings]

23 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Thursday 4 Jan - Saturday 13 Jan

This period will start in an unsettled fashion, with showers in many places, and these will be heavy at times, with temperatures around normal for early January. During the rest of the period there will be a gradual trend towards more settled and somewhat colder conditions with some frosty nights (perhaps becoming widespread and severe in time). Occasional unsettled spells are still possible, but these generally much more regionalised, and infrequent than conditions of late. As temperatures fall, the chance of any precipitation falling as sleet and snow increases, particularly over high ground and especially over northern parts of the UK, but not exclusively so by any means. As well as frost and ice by night, some freezing fog is likely to develop as well.

Sunday 14 Jan - Sunday 28 Jan

Compared to normal, there is an increased chance of colder than average conditions during this period. Currently the chance of widespread severe cold is still deemed low, but still the risk of impacts from cold, ice and snow is greater than normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

I don’t think I’ve ever read a MO outlook, with so many words that are…cold, colder, severe, frosts and ice and snow in their outlook …..

[Summer Sun]

Friday 5 Jan - Sunday 14 Jan

The start of this period will likely see a gradual trend towards more settled and somewhat colder conditions with some frosty nights (perhaps becoming widespread and severe in time). Initially there are still likely to be some showers, especially around windward coasts in the north and east, but in general most areas start to see longer, more settled spells develop. Occasional unsettled spells are still possible, but these generally much more regionalised, and infrequent than conditions of late. As temperatures fall, the chance of any precipitation falling as sleet and snow increases, particularly over high ground and especially over northern parts of the UK, but not exclusively so by any means. As well as frost and ice by night, some freezing fog is likely to develop as well.

Monday 15 Jan - Monday 29 Jan

Compared to normal, there is an increased chance of colder than average conditions during this period. Currently the chance of widespread severe cold is still deemed low, but still the risk of impacts from cold, ice and snow is greater than normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Until the Met Office change the wording to widespread significant snowfall this winter will remain a non event.

Close but no cigar CURRENTLY.

Edited December 31, 2023 by prolongedSnowLover

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Until the Met Office change the wording to widespread significant snowfall this winter will remain a non event.

Close but no cigar CURRENTLY.

It does happen a lot during winters in general. Obv they have greater info but the bottom line is it can be vague

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, swfc said:

It does happen a lot during winters in general. Obv they have greater info but the bottom line is it can be vague

Indeed; and if anyone pretends to be able to be precise four weeks out, they're telling porkies. 

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 6 Jan - Monday 15 Jan

The weekend sees somewhat more settled conditions introduced quite widely across the country, with colder conditions and some frosty nights (perhaps becoming widespread and severe in time). Initially there are still likely to be some showers, especially around windward coasts in the east and north, but in general most areas start to see longer, more settled spells develop. Occasional unsettled spells are still possible, but these generally much more regionalised, and infrequent than conditions of late, perhaps not even materialising. As temperatures fall, the chance of any precipitation falling as sleet and snow increases, particularly over high ground and especially over northern parts of the UK, but not exclusively so by any means. As well as frost and ice by night, some freezing fog is likely to develop as well.

Tuesday 16 Jan - Tuesday 30 Jan

Compared to normal, there is an increased chance of colder than average conditions during this period. Currently the chance of widespread severe cold is still deemed low, but still the risk of impacts from cold, including ice and snow is greater than normal. It is likely to be drier than recent weeks, but what does fall is more likely to be of a wintry nature. While there is a chance of brief, unsettled spells, which would bring milder air for a time, it would likely also be accompanied by a period of sleet or snow. However, when, or even if, this would happen is very uncertain, and overall the main theme will be much more in the way of settled conditions through this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[cheshire snow]

Well the extended forecast makes no sense the 2nd half that has been added today totally contradicts the first part that has been there for days.

[damianslaw]

All suggestive of a blocked January, with heights never quite positioning to a place to deliver notable cold, but in any atlantic attack, they should hold. Hazard a guess they will re-orientate from NW to east with core heights close or over UK and slightly to the north, light north westerly, northerly, north easterly, easterly and possible SE flows. A very different to January to many recently, 2021 a possible good match.. 

Edited January 1 by damianslaw

[snowblizzard]

Currently, the chance of widespread severe cold is still deemed low! 

[KTtom]

Seems fairly consistant to me, dry, cold and frosty with any incursions (deemed unlikely) from a western quadrant as opposed to east..those who like cold and frosty will be delighted, those wanting deep snow left waiting.

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 7 Jan - Tuesday 16 Jan

Into Sunday and the new week broadly settled conditions quite widely across the country, with colder conditions and some frosty nights (perhaps becoming widespread and severe in time). Initially there are still likely to be some showers, especially around windward coasts in the east, but in general most areas start to see longer, more settled spells develop. Occasional unsettled spells are still possible later in the period, but these generally much more regionalised, and infrequent than of late. As temperatures fall, the chance of any precipitation falling as sleet and snow increases, particularly over high ground and especially over northern parts of the UK, but not exclusively so by any means. As well as frost and ice by night, some freezing fog is likely to develop as well.

Wednesday 17 Jan - Wednesday 31 Jan

Compared to normal, there is an increased chance of colder than average conditions during this period. Currently the chance of widespread severe cold is still deemed low, but still the risk of impacts from cold, including ice and snow is greater than normal. It is likely to be drier than recent weeks, but what does fall is more likely to be of a wintry nature. While there is a chance of brief, unsettled spells, which would bring milder air for a time, it would likely also be accompanied by a period of sleet or snow. However, when, or even if, this would happen is very uncertain, and overall the main theme will be much more in the way of settled conditions through this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

A colder spell expected but longevity is uncertain

Wednesday 3 January to – Sunday 7 January

Starting unsettled but turning drier and colder

Monday 8 January to – Sunday 14 January

Colder than average. Less settled later

Monday 15 January to – Sunday 28 January

Cold for a while longer. Possibly milder later

Further ahead

When the next update rolls around, we will see if models have any better agreement on the evolution of weather patterns throughout mid-January. Will we still be forecasting colder-than-average weather, and how soon might it turn milder?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

Monday 8 Jan - Wednesday 17 Jan

Next week will begin mostly dry with variable amounts of cloud and some sunny spells. The sunniest weather is likely to be in the north and west, although here some overnight fog patches are possible. Elsewhere, probably mostly cloudy with a cold easterly breeze developing in the south. By the middle of next week, the wind should ease and, with high pressure in charge, there should be a good deal of dry weather. Cloud amounts will continue to be quite variable, but all areas should see some sunshine at times. Much colder than recently, with frost probably becoming quite widespread and some freezing fog patches are possible in places. Beyond next week, conditions are likely to remain cold, with an increasing chance of some wintry showers, particularly in the north.

Thursday 18 Jan - Thursday 1 Feb

Compared to normal, there is an increased chance of colder than average conditions during this period. Currently the chance of widespread severe cold is still deemed low, but still the risk of impacts from cold, including ice and snow is greater than normal. It is likely to be drier than recent weeks, but what does fall is more likely to be of a wintry nature. While there is a chance of brief, unsettled spells, which would bring milder air for a time, it would likely also be accompanied by a period of sleet or snow. However, when, or even if, this would happen is very uncertain, and overall the main theme will be much more in the way of settled conditions through this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 9 Jan - Thursday 18 Jan

Next week will begin mostly dry with variable amounts of cloud and some sunny spells. The sunniest weather is likely to be in the north and west. Elsewhere, probably mostly cloudy with a cold easterly breeze developing in the south. By the middle of next week, the wind should ease and, with high pressure in charge, there should be a good deal of dry weather. Cloud amounts will continue to be quite variable, but all areas should see some sunshine at times. Much colder than recently, with frost probably becoming quite widespread and some freezing fog patches are possible in places. Beyond next week, conditions are likely to remain cold, with an increasing chance of some snow showers, developing particularly in the north.

Friday 19 Jan - Friday 2 Feb

Compared to normal, there is an increased chance of colder than average conditions during this period. Currently the chance of widespread severe cold is still deemed low, but still the risk of impacts from cold, including ice and snow is greater than normal. It is likely to be drier than recent weeks, but what does fall is more likely to be of a wintry nature. While there is a chance of brief, unsettled spells, which would bring milder air for a time, it would likely also be accompanied by a period of sleet or snow. However, when, or even if, this would happen is very uncertain, and overall the main theme will be much more in the way of settled conditions through this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[snowblind]

I don't think the wording has changed at all for days. Very unusual.

Edited January 4 by snowblind

[DOdo]

I think they are playing it safe at this early stage. The main theme is,  its going to stay cold any mild intervals will be brief.

[snowblind]

7 minutes ago, DOdo said:

I think they are playing it safe at this early stage. The main theme is,  its going to stay cold any mild intervals will be brief.

Either that or they're all still on their Christmas hols and no-one has bothered to update it

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 minutes ago, snowblind said:

Either that or they're all still on their Christmas hols and no-one has bothered to update it

updated Monday, back to work day?

[damianslaw]

Whilst not expecting notable cold, the reference to snow showers is a cold upgrade.. what the met may describe as severe cold is a guess, ice days and sub -10 uppers quite possibly, whereas 0-2 degree maxes and -6 to -10 uppers to most equals severe cold I suspect.