Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[booferking]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

The met always seem to play catch up, they didn't see the recent cold spell until came into the reliable. They also change there forecasts very quickly, flips occur in space of couple of days. I no longer rate it sadly.

I concur they pretty much follow the NWP outputs all this talk of having superior data i don't believe for 1 minute they were terrible with the cold spell recently could of made better weather forecast myself.

[Rob 79812010]

10 minutes ago, booferking said:

I concur they pretty much follow the NWP outputs all this talk of having superior data i don't believe for 1 minute they were terrible with the cold spell recently could of made better weather forecast myself.

They're monthly forecast said there was no sign of any sustained cold weather and that was only a week before the cold started

[Summer Sun]

BBC weather for the week ahead

Outlook

• Turning less cold
• Wetter and windier
• Risk of gales

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/av/67630024

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Often wet and mild throughout December

Wednesday 6 December to – Sunday 10 December

Milder, and occasionally wet and windy

Monday 11 December to – Sunday 17 December

Changeable and turning a bit chillier

Monday 18 December to – Sunday 31 December

Periodically wet and windy

Further ahead

In the next forecast, we will be able to look at what the long range models are saying for early January. We will also see if they stick with the expected milder pattern through the rest of December, and if they hint at anything colder around the New Year.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

Monday 11 Dec - Wednesday 20 Dec

This period is likely to often be unsettled with areas of low pressure tracking northeastwards close to or over the UK. This means bands of rain moving in from the west or southwest, interspersed with brighter showery conditions. As such, the wettest weather is likely to be across western high ground, though all parts could see some heavy rain at times. There is a greater than normal likelihood of periods of very windy weather too. Potential for a drier spell of weather to develop for a time around mid-month, particularly in the south, with frost and fog more prevalent. Overall, a relatively mild period for the UK, with above average temperatures more likely than not, especially so in the south and west.

Thursday 21 Dec - Thursday 4 Jan

Most likely to be unsettled with further bands of rain crossing the UK with brighter conditions and showers in between. The wettest and windiest conditions are most likely in the west and northwest. The chance of a colder spell of weather, with hazard such as snow and ice, does increase later in December and into the New Year period. However, conditions are more likely to remain generally mild and wet.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 12 Dec - Thursday 21 Dec

Initially unsettled but mild, with rain clearing northern areas whilst showers and sunny spells expected in the south - potential for heavier showers merging into longer spells of rain. By mid-week becoming more settled as high pressure affects southern areas whilst remaining a more wet and windy regime in the north. As such, the wettest weather likely across western high ground, mainly in Scotland and occasionally parts of Northern Ireland and northwest England. Settled conditions in the south with average temperatures and cloudy at times with patchy light rain near coasts and over hills. Clearer spells favouring the southeast but these also allowing potential for fog or frost overnight. The following week returns to unsettled conditions but average to mild temperatures, though favouring the northwest for wettest and windiest conditions.

Friday 22 Dec - Friday 5 Jan

Most likely to be unsettled with further bands of rain crossing the UK with brighter conditions and showers in between. The wettest and windiest conditions are most likely in the west and northwest. The chance of a colder spell of weather, with hazards such as snow and ice, does increase later in December and into the New Year period. However, conditions are more likely to remain generally mild and wet.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[damianslaw]

What I've noted about these met office updates is very quick changes and the mid and long term not joining up.

It performed very poorly with the last cold spell, caught on the hoof, indeed always seems caught on the hoof nowadays and behind the curve. 

It remains uncertain about late December still. 

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 13 Dec - Friday 22 Dec

Briefly unsettled with showers and potential for a band of rain before becoming more settled later in the week as high pressure affects southern areas, though remaining in a more wet and windy regime in the north. As such, the wettest weather likely across western high ground, mainly in Scotland and occasionally parts of Northern Ireland and northwest England. Settled conditions in the south with average temperatures and cloudy at times with patchy light rain near coasts and over hills. Clearer spells favouring the southeast but these also allowing potential for fog or frost overnight. The following week sees potential for high pressure to shift allowing a return to unsettled conditions but average to mild temperatures, favouring the northwest for wettest and windiest conditions.

Saturday 23 Dec - Saturday 6 Jan

More likely to be unsettled compared to preceding settled spell with bands of rain crossing the UK with brighter conditions and showers in between. The wettest and windiest conditions are most likely in the west and northwest. The chance of a colder spell of weather, with hazards such as snow and ice, does increase later in December and into the New Year period. However, conditions are more likely to remain generally mild and wet.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[damianslaw]

Not sure what signals the met office are seeing... clearly not what many others are.. could be right. but could clearly be needing to buy a new pair of glasses soon..

[phil nw.]

I would think they don't see the high getting enough traction to cut off the Atlantic in the far north by the looks and that is supported by current ens charts today.

As for later I imagine too far away for them for confidence of a cold pattern as beyond current nwp. modelling.

They do give a cursory mention of a possibility probably based on the mjo.They do refer to the mjo from time to time in their YouTube videos.

[Bristawl Si]

14 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Not sure what signals the met office are seeing... clearly not what many others are.. could be right. but could clearly be needing to buy a new pair of glasses soon..

As you mention "glasses", i reck they just havent got any rose-tinted ones

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Mild and rainy, then more seasonal and changeable

Saturday 9 December to – Sunday 17 December

Mild and wet, then colder and drier from midweek

Monday 18 December to – Sunday 24 December

Very uncertain but probably drier

Monday 1 January to – Sunday 14 January

Most probably becoming mild and wet

Further ahead

The pressing concern in the next update will be to see whether models have better agreement regarding developments during the week before Christmas.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[That ECM]

Met still going for sinking high.

[damianslaw]

3rd week says very uncertain, and 4th week probably becoming milder... suggests to me it sees a potential cold christmas week, but doesn't want to call it just yet.. bbc forecast this is. Why no mention of 24 Dec to 1 Jan?

Edited December 9, 2023 by damianslaw

[That ECM]

51 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

3rd week says very uncertain, and 4th week probably becoming milder... suggests to me it sees a potential cold christmas week, but doesn't want to call it just yet.. bbc forecast this is. Why no mention of 24 Dec to 1 Jan?

The later met hasn’t updated yet. I think if they drop the cold part this will add to the confidence of there view the high will sink. Keep and it would suggest that they are still unsure.

 

just updated and reads as before. Still unsure to my mind. They will drop that wording I think if they are confident of the high sinking.

Edited December 9, 2023 by That ECM

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 14 Dec - Saturday 23 Dec

Potential for a band of rain across the UK before becoming more settled later in the week as high pressure builds over southern areas, though remaining in a more wet and windy regime as fronts occasionally push into northern areas. As such, the wettest weather likely across western high ground, mainly in Scotland and occasionally parts of Northern Ireland and northwest England. Settled conditions in the south with average temperatures and cloudy at times with patchy light rain near coasts and over hills. Clearer spells favouring the southeast but these also allowing potential for fog or frost overnight. The following week sees potential for high pressure to decline allowing a return to unsettled conditions and typically average temperatures, favouring the northwest for wettest and windiest conditions.

Sunday 24 Dec - Sunday 7 Jan

More likely to be unsettled compared to the preceding settled spell with bands of rain crossing the UK with brighter conditions and showers in between. The wettest and windiest conditions are most likely in the west and northwest. The chance of a colder spell of weather, with hazards such as snow and ice, does increase later in December and into the New Year period. However, conditions are more likely to remain generally mild and wet.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC weather for the week ahead

• Rain at times
• Blustery
• Drier end of the week

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m001tccz/weather-for-the-week-ahead-10122023

 

[Summer Sun]

Friday 15 Dec - Sunday 24 Dec

For most locations, a continuing trend to more settled weather into the weekend as high pressure builds close to the southwest of the UK, though Scotland likely remaining in a more wet and windy regime with westerly winds. As such, the wettest weather likely across western high ground, mainly in Scotland and occasionally parts of Northern Ireland and northwest England. Settled conditions in the south with average temperatures and cloudy at times with some patchy light rain, mainly near western coasts and over hills. Clearer spells favoured the south and east, but these also allowing potential for fog or frost overnight. The following week sees potential for high pressure to decline, allowing a return to unsettled conditions and typically average temperatures, favouring the northwest for wettest and windiest conditions.

Monday 25 Dec - Monday 8 Jan

More likely to be unsettled compared to the preceding settled spell, with bands of rain crossing the UK with brighter conditions and showers in between. The wettest and windiest conditions are most likely in the west and northwest. The chance of a colder spell of weather, with hazards such as snow and ice, does increase later in December and into the New Year period. However, on balance, conditions are more likely to remain generally mild and wet.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Norrance]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Friday 15 Dec - Sunday 24 Dec

For most locations, a continuing trend to more settled weather into the weekend as high pressure builds close to the southwest of the UK, though Scotland likely remaining in a more wet and windy regime with westerly winds. As such, the wettest weather likely across western high ground, mainly in Scotland and occasionally parts of Northern Ireland and northwest England. Settled conditions in the south with average temperatures and cloudy at times with some patchy light rain, mainly near western coasts and over hills. Clearer spells favoured the south and east, but these also allowing potential for fog or frost overnight. The following week sees potential for high pressure to decline, allowing a return to unsettled conditions and typically average temperatures, favouring the northwest for wettest and windiest conditions.

Monday 25 Dec - Monday 8 Jan

More likely to be unsettled compared to the preceding settled spell, with bands of rain crossing the UK with brighter conditions and showers in between. The wettest and windiest conditions are most likely in the west and northwest. The chance of a colder spell of weather, with hazards such as snow and ice, does increase later in December and into the New Year period. However, on balance, conditions are more likely to remain generally mild and wet.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

That very last sentence seems a little bit less sure than that in  the previous updates!

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 16 Dec - Monday 25 Dec

For most locations more settled weather continues this weekend as high pressure builds close to the southwest of the UK. Though northern and western Scotland likely remaining in a more wet and windy, but exceptionally mild regime. Settled conditions in the south with above average temperatures here too, but cloudy at times with some patchy light rain, mainly near western coasts and over hills. Clearer spells favoured in the south, but these also allowing potential for fog overnight. The following week sees potential for high pressure move further west into the Atlantic central Atlantic, allowing a return to unsettled conditions and typically nearer average temperatures nationwide, with a potential for short-lived colder interludes, when there are periods of north or northwesterly winds.

Tuesday 26 Dec - Tuesday 9 Jan

Most likely continuing unsettled with bands of rain crossing the UK with brighter conditions and showers in between. The wettest and windiest conditions are most likely in the north and northwest. The chance of a colder spell of weather, with hazards such as snow and ice, does increase later in December and into the New Year period. However, on balance conditions are most likely to remain generally mild and wetter than average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[That ECM]

The north blast has been seen on gfs for a while on various runs. Interesting now the met mentioned it.

[snowblind]

Last bit of the 17th to 26th sounds like an encouraging update.

"It now looks probable that there will be at least one short-lived colder interlude next week, with a period of north or northwesterly winds that could bring some snow and ice, especially in the north."

[damianslaw]

12 minutes ago, snowblind said:

Last bit of the 17th to 26th sounds like an encouraging update.

"It now looks probable that there will be at least one short-lived colder interlude next week, with a period of north or northwesterly winds that could bring some snow and ice, especially in the north."

A rather bullish statement from the met office, note the word 'could', not 'will', but also ' at least one', could be more. Ties in with models showing a dig of cold polar maritime air perhaps on more than one occasion, will it coincide with christmas day, or will the 25th fall inbetween, sods law the latter for those wanting a white christmas, but all to play for at these timescales.

Edited December 12, 2023 by damianslaw

[That ECM]

I think some credit to gfs on this one.

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 17 Dec - Tuesday 26 Dec

For most locations more settled weather continues into Sunday with high pressure close to the southwest of the UK. Though northern and western Scotland likely remaining in a more wet and windy, but exceptionally mild regime. Settled conditions in the south with well above average temperatures here too, but cloudy at times with some patchy light rain, mainly near western coasts and over hills. From next week high pressure will likely move further west into the central Atlantic, allowing a return to unsettled conditions and typically nearer average temperatures nationwide. It now looks probable that there will be at least one short-lived colder interlude next week, with a period of north or northwesterly winds that could bring some snow and ice, especially in the north.

Wednesday 27 Dec - Wednesday 10 Jan

Most likely continuing unsettled with bands of rain crossing the UK with brighter conditions and showers in between. The wettest and windiest conditions are most likely in the north and northwest. There is a continued chance of a short-lived colder spell or two, with hazards such as snow and ice, with this chance perhaps increasing slightly in late December and into the New Year period. However, on balance conditions are most likely to remain generally mild and wetter than average for most of the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk