Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 3 Dec - Tuesday 12 Dec

Through the latter part of the weekend and into the new week further wintry showers are expected across some northern areas, favouring north facing coastal spots. Further south there is potential for some rain and perhaps hill snow to spread across from the west for a time early in the coming week. Most wintry showers expected to ease by midweek. By the end of the coming week milder conditions are expected to develop with cloudier and windier spells bringing outbreaks of rain as the UK enters a more mild regime. There remains a possibility of further more settled spells with potential for temperatures to fall again with frosts and fog patches, but these limited to a day or two before further areas of rainfall likely move through.

Wednesday 13 Dec - Wednesday 27 Dec

Conditions are most likely to be changeable through this period. Wetter and windier than average conditions are slightly more likely than normal, especially in the west and northwest. Temperatures are most likely to be near or above average overall, although this doesn't rule out some spells of cold weather and associated wintry hazards.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Cold for a while then milder by mid-December

Wednesday 29 November to – Sunday 3 December

Cold and occasionally wintry

Monday 4 December to – Sunday 10 December

 

Cold and unsettled then potentially milder later

Monday 11 December to – Sunday 24 December

Becoming mild, wet and windy

Further ahead

Although the cold weather looks sure to hang on for at least a week, there is a lot less certainty in an anticipated change to milder weather. The next update might shed more light on when this could happen. We will also peek towards the end of 2023.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

Monday 4 Dec - Wednesday 13 Dec

A fair amount of uncertainty at the start of this period as milder and more generally unsettled conditions towards the south and west try and extend further north and east. It is likely that northern and perhaps some eastern areas will start off cold with further overnight frosts and wintry showers in places. Indeed, northern Scotland may remain on the cold side, at least for the first few days of this period. Elsewhere, milder, or at least less cold weather than the preceding days, with areas of rain and stronger winds, this erratically spreading further north and east with time. Moving towards mid December and more generally unsettled and milder conditions look most probable with any colder interludes likely to be short-lived.

Thursday 14 Dec - Thursday 28 Dec

Conditions are most likely to be changeable through this period. Wetter and windier than average conditions are slightly more likely than normal, especially in the west and northwest. Temperatures are most likely to be near or above average overall, although this doesn't rule out some spells of cold weather and associated wintry hazards, though the chances of any prolonged spells of cold weather are low.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC weather for the week ahead

Rest of the week

• Staying cold
• Sharp night frosts

Next week

• Milder and wetter

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/av/67566744

 

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 5 Dec - Thursday 14 Dec

A fair amount of uncertainty at the start of this period as milder and more generally unsettled conditions across the south and west try and extend further north and east through the week. It is likely that northern and perhaps some eastern areas remain cold with further overnight frost and fog patches, then clear or sunny spells and wintry showers in places. Elsewhere, milder, or at least less cold weather than the preceding days, with areas of rain and stronger winds, more especially in the west, this erratically spreading further north and east with time. Moving towards mid December and more generally unsettled and milder conditions look most probable with any colder interludes likely to be short-lived.

Friday 15 Dec - Friday 29 Dec

Conditions are most likely to be changeable through this period. Wetter and windier than average conditions are slightly more likely than normal, especially in the west and northwest. Temperatures are most likely to be near or above average overall, although this doesn't rule out some spells of cold weather and associated wintry hazards, though the chances of any prolonged spells of cold weather are low.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 6 Dec - Friday 15 Dec

A fair amount of uncertainty at the start of this period as milder and more generally unsettled conditions across the south and west try and extend further north and east through the week. Its likely that these milder conditions will ultimately spread to the whole UK, but it may well take until Thursday or even Friday before they reach the extreme north pf Scotland. Elsewhere, milder, or at least less cold weather than the preceding days, with areas of rain and stronger winds, more especially in the west, this erratically spreading further north and east with time. Moving towards mid December and more generally unsettled and milder conditions look most probable although a return of the colder conditions cannot be ruled out entirely.

Saturday 16 Dec - Saturday 30 Dec

Conditions are most likely to be changeable through this period. Wetter and windier than average conditions are slightly more likely than normal, especially in the west and northwest. Temperatures are most likely to be near or above average overall, especially in the south and west. It is possible that there will be further colder interludes, but these likely to be short lived at first. Perhaps a greater chance of a longer cold spell late in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

Edited December 1, 2023 by Summer Sun

[Don]

56 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Wednesday 6 Dec - Friday 15 Dec

A fair amount of uncertainty at the start of this period as milder and more generally unsettled conditions across the south and west try and extend further north and east through the week. Its likely that these milder conditions will ultimately spread to the whole UK, but it may well take until Thursday or even Friday before they reach the extreme north pf Scotland. Elsewhere, milder, or at least less cold weather than the preceding days, with areas of rain and stronger winds, more especially in the west, this erratically spreading further north and east with time. Moving towards mid December and more generally unsettled and milder conditions look most probable although a return of the colder conditions cannot be ruled out entirely.

Saturday 16 Dec - Saturday 30 Dec

Conditions are most likely to be changeable through this period. Wetter and windier than average conditions are slightly more likely than normal, especially in the west and northwest. Temperatures are most likely to be near or above average overall, especially in the south and west. It is possible that there will be further colder interludes, but these likely to be short lived at first. Perhaps a greater chance of a longer cold spell late in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

Now this caught my eye! 

[Paul_1978]

2 hours ago, Don said:

Now this caught my eye! 

Indeed Don - there certainly appears to be a shift in thinking in the last 24 hours based on that update.

[damianslaw]

Interesting update, must be seeimg something - fits in with many others thoughts of substantive cold arriving before month end.

Reading between the lines the met are also not ruling out cold attacking the atlantic during mid month either.

 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Paul_1978 said:

Indeed Don - there certainly appears to be a shift in thinking in the last 24 hours based on that update.

Yes, just need their thoughts to gain traction as the month progresses! 

[Empire Of Snow]

42 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Interesting update, must be seeimg something - fits in with many others thoughts of substantive cold arriving before month end.

Reading between the lines the met are also not ruling out cold attacking the atlantic during mid month either.

 

They're struggling to forecast the next 24-48h. I reckon the signals for later and especially as we're heading mid month are all over the place. 

[johnholmes]

What on earth is this all about?

Areas of rain, sleet, and away from immediate coastal areas, snow, are expected to push north and east across the area later this evening and into the early hours of Sunday. Whilst not everywhere will see accumulating snow, some places will likely see 1-3 cm, with 5-10 cm possible over some hills and mountains of Wales, the Peak District and south Pennines. Ice will be an additional hazard. What should I do? Snowy, wintry weather can cause delays and make driving conditions dangerous. Keep yourself and others safe by planning your route, giving yourself extra time for your journey. Not needing to rush, reduces your risk of accidents, slips, and falls. Check for road closures or delays to public transport and amend plans if necessary. If you need to make a journey on foot or by bike, try to use pavements along main roads which are likely to be less slippery. If driving, make sure you have some essentials in your car in the event of any delays (e.g., warm clothing, food, water, a blanket, a torch, ice scraper/de icer, a warning triangle, high visibility vest and an in-car phone charger). Be prepared for weather warnings to change quickly: when a weather warning is issued, the Met Office recommends staying up to date with the weather forecast in your area.

The warning is fine but why are Met issuing all the other words? Not their job or never was. What is the weather world coming too?

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Cold early December, then milder and wetter

Saturday 2 December to – Sunday 10 December

Becoming wet, windy and milder later in the week

Monday 11 December to – Sunday 17 December

Wet and windy at times. Chillier in the north

Monday 18 December to – Sunday 31 December

Periodically wet and windy

Further ahead

When we re-visit the forecast, we will see if the milder and unsettled outlook from the second half of next week onwards still looks likely.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[johncam]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Cold early December, then milder and wetter

Saturday 2 December to – Sunday 10 December

Becoming wet, windy and milder later in the week

Monday 11 December to – Sunday 17 December

Wet and windy at times. Chillier in the north

Monday 18 December to – Sunday 31 December

Periodically wet and windy

Further ahead

When we re-visit the forecast, we will see if the milder and unsettled outlook from the second half of next week onwards still looks likely.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

Not great is it 

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 7 Dec - Saturday 16 Dec

An uncertain start to the period as milder and more generally unsettled, windy conditions across the south and west try and extend further north and east. Its likely that these milder conditions will ultimately spread to the whole UK, but it may well take until the weekend to reach the extreme northeast of Scotland. Elsewhere, milder, or at least less cold weather than the preceding days, with areas of rain and stronger winds, more especially in the west, this erratically spreading further north and east with time, and turning to snow across parts of the northeast especially. Moving towards mid December and more generally unsettled and milder conditions look most probable although a return of the colder conditions cannot be ruled out entirely.

Sunday 17 Dec - Sunday 31 Dec

Conditions are most likely to be changeable through this period. Wetter and windier than average conditions are slightly more likely than normal, especially in the west and northwest. Temperatures are most likely to be near or above average overall, especially in the south and west. It is possible that there will be further colder interludes, but these likely to be short lived at first. Perhaps a greater chance of a longer cold spell late in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

Edited December 2, 2023 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

BBC weather for the week ahead

• Cold to start
• Becoming wetter and windier
• Turning milder for all

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m001t47c/weather-for-the-week-ahead-03122023

 

[Summer Sun]

Friday 8 Dec - Sunday 17 Dec

A transition to milder, wetter and windier conditions is likely to have spread to most of the country by Friday. By this time the main chance of any snow becomes more restricted to high ground in the north. However, the change in conditions may take until the weekend to reach the far northeast with wintry showers remaining possible here. Thereafter, a continuation of generally unsettled conditions is most likely through mid-December with spells of heavy rain and strong winds for most areas at times. Temperatures are most likely to be around average though with some milder spells, more especially in the south. Colder interludes remain possible but likely shorter-lived than the current period and probably more restricted to the north.

Monday 18 Dec - Monday 1 Jan

Conditions are most likely to be changeable through this period. Wetter and windier than average conditions are slightly more likely than normal, especially in the west and northwest. Temperatures are most likely to be near or above average overall, especially in the south and west. It is possible that there will be further colder interludes, but these likely to be short lived at first. Perhaps a greater chance of a longer cold spell late in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 9 Dec - Monday 18 Dec

This period is likely to often be unsettled with areas of low pressure tracking northeastwards close to or over the UK. This means bands of rain moving in from the west or southwest, interspersed with brighter showery conditions. As such, the wettest weather is likely to be across western high ground, though all parts could see some heavy rain at times. There is a greater than normal likelihood of periods of very windy weather too. A generally relatively mild period for the UK, with above average temperatures more likely than not, especially so in the south and west. However there does still remain the potential for short-lived colder interludes bringing the chance of overnight frost, these more likely to affect northern areas.

Tuesday 19 Dec - Tuesday 2 Jan

Conditions are most likely to be changeable through this period. Wetter and windier than average conditions are slightly more likely than normal, especially in the west and northwest. Temperatures are most likely to be near or above average overall, especially in the south and west. It is possible that there will be further colder interludes, but these likely to be short lived at first. Perhaps a greater chance of a longer cold spell later in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 10 Dec - Tuesday 19 Dec

This period is likely to often be unsettled with areas of low pressure tracking northeastwards close to or over the UK. This means bands of rain moving in from the west or southwest, interspersed with brighter showery conditions. As such, the wettest weather is likely to be across western high ground, though all parts could see some heavy rain at times. There is a greater than normal likelihood of periods of very windy weather too. Potential for a drier spell of weather to develop for a time around mid-month, particularly in the south, with frost and fog more prevalent. Overall, a relatively mild period for the UK, with above average temperatures more likely than not, especially so in the south and west.

Wednesday 20 Dec - Wednesday 3 Jan

Most likely to be unsettled with further bands of rain crossing the UK with brighter conditions and showers in between. The wettest and windiest conditions are most likely in the west and northwest. The chance of a colder spell of weather, with hazard such as snow and ice, does increase later in December and into the New Year period. However, conditions are more likely to remain generally mild and wet.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Don]

25 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Sunday 10 Dec - Tuesday 19 Dec

This period is likely to often be unsettled with areas of low pressure tracking northeastwards close to or over the UK. This means bands of rain moving in from the west or southwest, interspersed with brighter showery conditions. As such, the wettest weather is likely to be across western high ground, though all parts could see some heavy rain at times. There is a greater than normal likelihood of periods of very windy weather too. Potential for a drier spell of weather to develop for a time around mid-month, particularly in the south, with frost and fog more prevalent. Overall, a relatively mild period for the UK, with above average temperatures more likely than not, especially so in the south and west.

Wednesday 20 Dec - Wednesday 3 Jan

Most likely to be unsettled with further bands of rain crossing the UK with brighter conditions and showers in between. The wettest and windiest conditions are most likely in the west and northwest. The chance of a colder spell of weather, with hazard such as snow and ice, does increase later in December and into the New Year period. However, conditions are more likely to remain generally mild and wet.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

An outside chance of colder/snowier weather for now then.

[Bristawl Si]

Late December

"The chance of a colder spell of weather, with hazard such as snow and ice, does increase later in December and into the New Year period."

One could write that every year, as it'll be late December, early January. Of course, there's a chance 3+ weeks out - who writes this stuff for Meto?

[on the coast]

29 minutes ago, Bristle Si said:

Late December

"The chance of a colder spell of weather, with hazard such as snow and ice, does increase later in December and into the New Year period."

One could write that every year, as it'll be late December, early January. Of course, there's a chance 3+ weeks out - who writes this stuff for Meto?

The more than likely wet and mild is not good. Still along way to go though.

[RJBingham]

"Perhaps a greater chance of a longer cold spell later in the period."  Gone.............

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Sunday 10 Dec - Tuesday 19 Dec

This period is likely to often be unsettled with areas of low pressure tracking northeastwards close to or over the UK. This means bands of rain moving in from the west or southwest, interspersed with brighter showery conditions. As such, the wettest weather is likely to be across western high ground, though all parts could see some heavy rain at times. There is a greater than normal likelihood of periods of very windy weather too. Potential for a drier spell of weather to develop for a time around mid-month, particularly in the south, with frost and fog more prevalent. Overall, a relatively mild period for the UK, with above average temperatures more likely than not, especially so in the south and west.

Wednesday 20 Dec - Wednesday 3 Jan

Most likely to be unsettled with further bands of rain crossing the UK with brighter conditions and showers in between. The wettest and windiest conditions are most likely in the west and northwest. The chance of a colder spell of weather, with hazard such as snow and ice, does increase later in December and into the New Year period. However, conditions are more likely to remain generally mild and wet.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

So, the Met Office favour it remaining mild and wet, so, they don't see what some of our teleconnections people see.

That is, there must be a predicted teleconnection that may fail.

 

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

So, the Met Office favour it remaining mild and wet, so, they don't see what some of our teleconnections people see.

That is, there must be a predicted teleconnection that may fail.

 

The met always seem to play catch up, they didn't see the recent cold spell until came into the reliable. They also change there forecasts very quickly, flips occur in space of couple of days. I no longer rate it sadly.