Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[Addicks Fan 1981]

From BBC weather:

Summary

Unsettled but possibly drier by early August

During the coming fortnight low pressure systems are likely to remain in the vicinity of the UK. As a result unsettled weather will continue with periods of heavy rain or showers, along with occasional thunderstorm risks and brisk, gusty winds at times.

Temperatures will be near or slightly below average at first, rising slightly above normal after mid-July.

Later in the month and into early August there could be a drier trend, although potentially more so in the north of the UK than the south.

Saturday 8 July to – Sunday 16 July

Wet and windy at times, and cooler

Saturday's band of heavy rain and thunderstorms will clear north-eastwards, leaving a mixture of sunshine and scattered showers on Sunday. These will be hit and miss but could be heavy and thundery locally.

Monday and Tuesday will be windy and wet in many areas with further heavy showers or more persistent rain, and scattered thunderstorms. Wednesday is going to stay showery but showers will become fewer, leaving Thursday with a lot of dry weather and just isolated showers, until more rain moves in from the west later.

Friday looks like being wet with some more heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms. The weekend should remain unsettled but probably with more rain in the northern UK than in the south.

Temperatures will fall near seasonal or slightly below.

Monday 17 July to – Sunday 23 July

Remaining unsettled

Low pressure systems are likely to continue to track near or across the UK beyond the middle of July, on their way from the east Atlantic to Scandinavia. As a result we can expect further periods of rain or showers, with risks of thunderstorms and gusty winds at times but also some sunshine in between.
Temperatures are most likely going to be near the July average but could occasionally rise slightly above, more especially across the southern half of the country, with south-westerly wind flows at times. No particularly chilly air looks likely, although it could feel cool during any periods of heavy rain or strong winds.

Monday 24 July to – Sunday 6 August

Possibly turning drier later in July

The last week of July should remain changeable with further rain or showers and risks of thunderstorms, but there is a chance that longer dry periods could develop in between. At the end of the month and into the first week of August this might be especially true of the northern UK, as high pressure builds in from the north. This should mean that low pressure systems will get pushed farther south and southwest, so southern areas will perhaps be more susceptible to rain than the north.

There is also about a 30% chance that high pressure would build more widely, which would be a drier outlook overall for early August. Although no particularly hot weather is signalled, temperatures should be a little above the seasonal average or near normal at coolest.

[Summer Sun]

Monday 17 Jul - Wednesday 26 Jul

Sunshine with scattered showers is expected for the start of next week, although showers likely lighter than on previous days and possibly with some more persistent rain initially across northeast Scotland. Winds also lighter than previous days for most, but still breezier over northern Scotland at first with temperatures remaining a little below average. Northwesterly winds most likely through to the end of next week, with low pressure likely sitting to the north of the UK, although winds may become more westerly by the end of the period. This will continue to bring sunshine and showers, with perhaps longer spells of rains at times. Also, a possibility of heavier showers and possibly thunderstorms across the south. Temperatures likely to remain a little below average for the time of the year.

Wednesday 26 Jul - Wednesday 9 Aug

Showery conditions most likely continuing, although perhaps winds moving round to the west to northwest. Most precipitation still in the form of showers although perhaps some longer spells of rain at times too. Temperatures likely to return closer to normal, although the chance of very warm or hot conditions looks to be lower than average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Have to say the met office are struggling at present and think bbc weather have outsmarted them.    

[Addicks Fan 1981]

From BBC weather:

Summary

An unsettled pattern until early August

There is no sign of any lengthy period of dry weather on the horizon through the rest of July or even into early August, nor of any sustained significant warmth. Instead, the UK is likely to continue to be plagued by low pressure systems, bringing periodic bouts of rain interspersed with relatively short-lived drier and brighter interludes, although even then there will be chances of showers here and there.

Some of that rain will be heavy and thundery, and winds will strengthen at times. Temperatures are mostly going to be near or a shade below normal but there could be a slight warming later in July and early August.

 

Wednesday 12 July to – Sunday 16 July

Showers or longer periods of rain

Showers will be hit-and-miss with some sunshine in between, but could be briefly heavy where they occur, with a chance of isolated thunderstorms. Most areas will be drier later Thursday as a weak high pressure ridge moves across the UK, but more extensive areas of rain will move across during Friday and Saturday, some heavy and thundery, as a low pressure system arrives. This is going to be a rather vigorous system for July, and thus will also produce some strong and gusty winds.

Saturday could see some bright spells develop in between downpours, but Sunday should have more of an improvement, with a few scattered showers, spells of sunshine and decreasing winds. Temperatures are going to fluctuate near or a shade below the July average, feeling cooler in the rain and wind

Monday 17 July to – Sunday 23 July

Remaining unsettled

Monday and Tuesday will have further showers and probably a couple of bands of more persistent rain as another Atlantic low pressure system and associated fronts move across. There should be some heavy bursts of rain with a chance of thunderstorms here and there, and it will become windy and gusty again. It is also going to turn cooler through the first half of the week, with a quick burst of west to northwesterly winds.

Wednesday could become a bit drier with just a few showers scattered around, but the rest of the week is going to remain unsettled with further rounds of rain or showers. Temperatures could lift a little as winds probably back more southwesterly for a while, mainly across southern areas, but are most likely to rise to near or a shade above average for a couple of days.

Monday 24 July to – Sunday 6 August

Wetter than average

Late July and early August look likely to remain under the influence of low pressure. That's not to say that there won't be any dry periods, but these could be regularly interrupted by rounds of rain or showers and risks of thunderstorms and brisk winds.

It shouldn't be especially cool, but neither are we going to experience any notable heat, and temperatures on the whole are expected to be around normal when averaged across the two week period.

There is around a 30% chance of some drier and warmer conditions developing as we move through the first week of August - if high pressure builds from the south and southwest more than is currently expected.

Edited July 12, 2023 by Addicks Fan 1981

[damianslaw]

Latest met office update makes grim reading if wanting some sustained drier warmer weather, preety more of the same through to mid August. Staying optimistic but becoming jittery that here summer 2023 may end up a 2 and half week wonder at the start..

[Addicks Fan 1981]

I would say currently @damianslawis they are using preliminary data from days before, when they use the more recent data it may paint a better picture.    

[Addicks Fan 1981]

From BBC weather 

Summary

An unsettled pattern lasts until early August

There is no sign of any lengthy period of dry weather through the rest of July or into August, nor will there be any strong warmth developing.

Temperatures will be slightly below average initially, rising to near seasonal or just a shade above at times in the next couple of weeks or so.

Rainfall amounts should be above average or close to normal at least, due either to low pressure systems moving between the UK and Scandinavia, or to showery west to north-westerly flows.

Saturday 15 Julyto – Sunday 23 July

Staying changeable

After a very windy and showery weekend the weather will be calmer throughout the coming week. It will remain unsettled though with a mixture of sunshine and hit-and-miss showers on most days. Some of those showers could be rather heavy too. It doesn't look like a particularly thundery set-up but a flash of lightning can't be ruled out here and there.

Some longer periods of rain are possible as well, most likely across central parts of the UK on Tuesday but perhaps on Wednesday as well.

The second half of the week will have north-westerly winds with occasional sunshine and fewer showers, especially in southern areas. A weak high pressure ridge might show its face around Saturday, making for better chances of some dry weather, but more rain looks likely before the end of the weekend. Temperatures are going to be a little below the July average overall.

Monday 24 Julyto – Sunday 30 July

Remaining wetter than average

Low pressure looks like still being the dominant weather feature through late July. As a result many areas can expect more rain than usual for the time of year, with occasional widespread frontal precipitation. This will be interspersed with brighter, more showery periods when some locations will have drier days, maybe more in southern areas than northern.

A few rumbles of thunder are possible in the most active periods, but widespread strong storms are not too likely. It will be windy at times as well, as low pressure and frontal systems move through. Temperatures will generally be near normal for July. Having said all that, there is about a 25% chance of an alternate scenario wherein high pressure tries to build in, pushing the low pressure systems farther north and east, which would make the UK become drier and a bit warmer.

Monday 31 Julyto – Sunday 13 August

A drier trend looks possible

August looks like starting in the same vein as July with further periods of showery weather or more prolonged rain as low pressure systems continue to move near the UK. However, there are some indications that these systems will tend to move away farther east, with high pressure more likely to build at times.

How soon that might happen is uncertain but anybody looking for a drier period of weather might see it by the middle of August. This would also reduce the chances of strong winds and it could become a bit warmer, with temperatures rising slightly above the August average at times.

However, there is little indication that there will be any strong heat developing. There is still a risk - about a 35% possibility - that low pressure will remain more dominant, keeping the UK wetter, windier and a bit cooler.

[Don]

Rest of July looks a bit below par but 'normal' summer weather to resume for August?

[Addicks Fan 1981]

6 minutes ago, Don said:

Rest of July looks a bit below par but 'normal' summer weather to resume for August?

There's so much uncertainty and it all hinges on the GSDM budget.   

[Summer Sun]

Friday 21 Jul - Sunday 30 Jul

A mixture of sunny spells and showers to start the period, with the greatest chance of showers towards the north and east of the country, before the north and west face an increasing likelihood of a more organised spell of rain moving in from the Atlantic over the weekend. Generally light winds but still feeling cooler than average for many. As the end of the month approaches, changeable and at times unsettled, conditions remain likely, meaning further periods of sunshine interspersed with showers. Some of these showers may turn heavy and thundery, with the highest chance of this in the northwest. Breezy conditions at times, particularly in the west and north. Temperatures towards the end of the month likely to be slightly below average, possibly rising to average.

Monday 31 Jul - Monday 14 Aug

A continuation of unsettled conditions is likely during the early part of August, with a mixture of sunny spells and periods of rainfall. Most of the rainfall is expected to be in the form of showers, but there is a chance of some more prolonged spells of rain that may push rainfall totals to above average for the time of year. More settled conditions become increasingly probable toward the middle of the month, with the chance of showers decreasing. Temperatures over the period are expected to be average for the time of year, with the possibility of very warm or hot conditions being less likely than usual.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 23 Jul - Tuesday 1 Aug

Generally unsettled conditions are expected for much of this period, as low pressure, initially centred close to the UK, drifts to the northeast with time. The first couple of days are likely to see outbreaks of rain or showers, some heavy and thundery, along with windy conditions for the time of year. As the low clears to the northeast and with high pressure expected to lay to the southwest of the UK, it is likely that the UK will often sit a in a north or northwesterly airstream for the remainder of July. Further showers or perhaps longer spells of rain are likely at times, often accompanied by a brisk breeze, and with temperatures generally close to or a little below average.

Wednesday 2 Aug - Wednesday 16 Aug

The start of August is likely to see further unsettled conditions. Showers are expected to be the predominant form of precipitation, but some more prolonged spells of rain are also possible, which could result in rainfall totals being above average for the time of year. The likelihood of showers may decrease towards the middle of the month, as more settled conditions become somewhat more probable. Temperatures are generally expected to be around average for the time of year, perhaps becoming a little warmer by the end of this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[Don]

'Green shoots' starting to appear for mid-August in terms of a more settled period?!

[johnholmes]

On 15/07/2023 at 16:53, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

I would say currently @damianslawis they are using preliminary data from days before, when they use the more recent data it may paint a better picture.    

wrong, I have already tried to explain they use the latest data.

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Unsettled and rather cool into August

Wednesday 19 July to – Sunday 23 July

Staying changeable

Monday 24 July to – Sunday 30 July

Remaining wetter than average

Monday 31 July to – Sunday 13 August

A drier trend is possible by mid-August

Further ahead

We will be able to take a look deeper into August as the longer-range models update, and see if there is still any sign of drier conditions developing.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 25 Jul - Thursday 3 Aug

A mixture of dry and wet conditions is likely for the start of the period. Spells of sunshine and showers are expected on Tuesday, which is likely to turn into heavier showers later. Winds will be light to moderate, while temperatures expected remain below average for many areas at this time of the year. Later in the period, similar mixed conditions are expected, with the likelihood of spells of more persistent rain and heavy thundery showers, especially in the west. Unsettled conditions are likely to persist until the end of the period. Winds will often be breezy, especially in the west and north, with windier conditions moving in from the west at times. Expect temperatures to continue to be lower than average for this time of the year.

Friday 4 Aug - Friday 18 Aug

August is likely to see further unsettled conditions at first. Showers are expected to be the predominant form of precipitation, but some more prolonged spells of rain are also possible, which could result in rainfall totals being above average for the time of year. By the middle of the month, more settled conditions are likely, causing the showery regime to be reduced. Temperatures are generally expected to be around average for the time of year, perhaps becoming a little warmer by the end of this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Monthly Outlook

Last updated 14:09 BST on Tuesday 18 July

ABRIDGED AND SUMMARISED:

Summary

Unsettled and rather cool into August

There is little sign of an end to the disturbed weather pattern we have become locked in to, with low pressure systems often in the vicinity of the United Kingdom. We have to expect further rounds of wet weather through the rest of July and into early August, and overall it will be quite cool for the time of year.

 

Wednesday 19 July – Sunday 23 July

Staying changeable

There will be an unstable north-westerly flow of winds for a couple of days, with a mixture of sunshine and sharp showers.

On Friday, showers will be more isolated due to a weak high pressure ridge toppling across, and larger areas of England and Wales will be dry.

Rain is likely to move in at the weekend, becoming heavy and thundery in places with gusty winds, followed by scattered showers across Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Temperatures are going to be a little below the July average overall.
 

Monday 24 July – Sunday 30 July

Remaining wetter than average

The weather is still going to be dominated by low pressure through next week, so no fundamental change to the pattern is expected. Most areas can expect further periods of rain, some potentially heavy, with brighter but showery spells in between.

Some drier interludes are possible as one or two brief high pressure ridges move across, but most areas of the UK are going to experience above-average amounts of rainfall.

It will be windy at times as well, as low pressure and frontal systems move through. Temperatures will generally be a bit below normal for July, or near the seasonal average at most.
 

Monday 31 July – Sunday 13 August

A drier trend is possible by mid-August

The start of August looks like being similar to July, with further periods of showery weather or more prolonged rain as low pressure systems continue to move near the UK.

However, there are some indications that high pressure could begin to make its presence felt more often, with low pressure perhaps tracking farther north.

This would also reduce the chances of strong winds, and it could cause temperatures to lift to nearer the seasonal average, or above at times. However, there is little indication that there will be any strong heat developing.

There remains a chance - about a 35% possibility - that low pressure will remain more dominant, keeping the UK wetter, windier and a bit cooler.

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 26 Jul - Friday 4 Aug

Cloud, rain and stronger winds spreading across the country at the start of this period, although the far north of the UK could remain brighter and possibly showery. Rain is likely to be heavy for some, especially in the west, and could be rather persistent on hills in the west. Once this clears, scattered showers and brighter conditions are expected to resume, with the period as a whole then continuing broadly changeable with a mix of these showers, some sunshine, and further more unsettled periods with rain and a risk of strong winds, especially around coasts. Temperatures are likely to be a little below average for the time of year, with potential for some relatively chilly nights.

Saturday 5 Aug - Saturday 19 Aug

August is likely to see a continuation of unsettled conditions at first, with a mixture of scattered showers and sunny spells, between periods of more general cloud, wind and rain. Towards the middle of the month, a gradual settling down of conditions remains the most likely trend, with longer periods of drier weather and more sunshine compared with previous weeks developing. Temperatures are likely to be cooler than average at first, but with the signal for improving conditions through the period a gradual upward trend in temperatures to average, with a slightly higher than normal chance of above average temperatures by the end of the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Unsettled into early August then turning drier

Saturday 22 July to – Sunday 30 July

Occasionally wet and windy

Monday 31 July to – Sunday 6 August

A chance of becoming drier later

Monday 7 August to – Sunday 20 August

A drier trend continues through mid-August

Further ahead

The new run of models might allow us to narrow down the time frame for the expected change to drier weather by mid-August.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

Friday 28 Jul - Sunday 6 Aug

The start of this period is likely to see an unsettled regime, with showers which could be heavy with the risk of thunder, and potentially some longer spells of rain. The wettest conditions are likely in the north and west, although still with some showers towards the southeast. Fresh to strong winds are likely at times, especially near western and southern coasts. Temperatures around average to rather cool, especially in more persistent rain or showers. Through the rest of this period, a similar theme is likely to continue with a mixture of showers and longer spells of rain, especially towards the northwest, along with some drier interludes, these perhaps becoming slightly more likely towards the southeast. Temperatures mostly around normal for the time of year.

Monday 7 Aug - Monday 21 Aug

This period may start with a continuation of unsettled conditions, with a mixture of scattered showers and longer spells of rain, especially towards the northwest. However, there is a slightly higher chance of longer more settled interludes developing towards the southeast. Towards the middle of the month, these may develop into a gradual settling down of conditions overall with longer periods of drier weather and more sunshine compared with previous weeks. However, confidence is limited and unsettled spells are still possible. Temperatures may be near or below average at first, however improving conditions through the period may bring a gradual upward trend in temperatures, with a slightly higher than normal chance of above average temperatures by the end of the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 30 Jul - Tuesday 8 Aug

The end of July is likely to remain unsettled with showers, perhaps heavy and thundery, especially in the north, giving way to longer spells of rain. Often quite windy as well, especially for the time of year, with southern areas probably seeing the strongest winds. Temperatures are expected to remain below normal, and it is likely to feel especially cool in areas of more persistent rain or stronger winds. Early August is likely to be changeable, at times unsettled, with spells of sunshine, interspersed with showers or more prolonged periods of rain, again most prominent in western areas. Generally, a greater likelihood of strong winds than usual for early August, and it is expected to continue to feel fairly cool for most.

Wednesday 9 Aug - Wednesday 23 Aug

Likely to remain fairly changeable for the most part through mid to late August. This means further rain or showers at times throughout the UK, with north-western and western areas perhaps seeing the wettest conditions. Some showers may turn heavy and thundery. These unsettled spells are likely to be accompanied by strong winds, which could accentuate the generally below-average temperatures expected during these periods. There is a possibility, increasingly towards the second half of the month, of a greater incidence of short spells of more settled and warmer weather with lighter winds.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Don]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Sunday 30 Jul - Tuesday 8 Aug

The end of July is likely to remain unsettled with showers, perhaps heavy and thundery, especially in the north, giving way to longer spells of rain. Often quite windy as well, especially for the time of year, with southern areas probably seeing the strongest winds. Temperatures are expected to remain below normal, and it is likely to feel especially cool in areas of more persistent rain or stronger winds. Early August is likely to be changeable, at times unsettled, with spells of sunshine, interspersed with showers or more prolonged periods of rain, again most prominent in western areas. Generally, a greater likelihood of strong winds than usual for early August, and it is expected to continue to feel fairly cool for most.

Wednesday 9 Aug - Wednesday 23 Aug

Likely to remain fairly changeable for the most part through mid to late August. This means further rain or showers at times throughout the UK, with north-western and western areas perhaps seeing the wettest conditions. Some showers may turn heavy and thundery. These unsettled spells are likely to be accompanied by strong winds, which could accentuate the generally below-average temperatures expected during these periods. There is a possibility, increasingly towards the second half of the month, of a greater incidence of short spells of more settled and warmer weather with lighter winds.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

Seems to be a downgrade for August in this update.  These updates really remind me of winter, when cold potential keeps being pushed back!

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Unsettled into early August, then turning drier

Wednesday 26 July to – Sunday 30 July

Remaining changeable but not as cool

Monday 31 July to – Sunday 6 August

 

Wet at first, then more showery

Monday 7 August to – Sunday 20 August

A drier trend through mid-August

Further ahead

We will see if the new models and atmospheric trends continue to point towards August becoming drier, and we will take a glimpse towards the end of the month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 2 Aug - Friday 11 Aug

Unsettled conditions will persist through the start of August, with days of sunny spells and showers perhaps interspersed with periods of more persistent rain as low pressure systems move across the UK. When these low pressure systems occur, they are more likely to run across southern parts of the UK while the north remains drier. Otherwise, on showery days, showers will often be concentrated in the north and east, where they may be heavy and thundery at times and could occasionally merge into longer spells of rain. Western areas are more likely to remain drier, although the chance of showers remains. Temperatures are expected to be slightly below normal, with a brisk northwesterly breeze exacerbating the cool feel. Overall, there is a higher than usual risk of strong winds.

Saturday 12 Aug - Saturday 26 Aug

In the later half of August, there is an increased chance that the unsettled conditions will persist with a mixture of rain and showers continuing to affect the UK., There is a signal for short-lived drier, brighter and occasionally warmer interludes towards the end of August, however a prolonged dry and hot spell is unlikely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 6 Aug - Tuesday 15 Aug

A mix of sunshine and showers initially, these most frequent and heaviest in the northwest, with the brightest conditions likely in the south, feeling more pleasant here. Changeable, often unsettled conditions, at least to start the following week, with showers and longer spells of rain likely, but some drier and brighter interludes, with these looking increasingly likely by the end of the week. Winds generally light to moderate, with a continued risk of strong winds at times with temperatures remaining below average. Beyond this, while changeable conditions are never too far away indications are that more settled conditions become the more likely scenario, but interspersed still with some more unsettled weather. Temperatures continue to be mostly below average although should start to recover through the period.

Wednesday 16 Aug - Wednesday 30 Aug

During the second half of August, there is a greater chance of more settled spells developing, with warmer and drier conditions becoming slightly more likely than the unseasonably unsettled weather of July. However, unsettled conditions are never too far away and so there will likely still be some spells of rain or showers for many areas from time to time. Temperatures look like they will recover to at least average, or a little above, however any prolonged dry or hot spells appear to be unlikely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Potentially drier by mid-August

Wednesday 2 August to – Sunday 6 August

Unsettled and relatively cool

Monday 7 August to – Sunday 13 August

Changeable but drier after midweek

Monday 14 August to – Sunday 27 August

Drier south and east, wetter north and west

Further ahead

There should be more insight into the chances of a drier trend, and new models will take us into early September.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook